Small Craft Advisory 118, NWS Juneau, AK

579 
FZAK51 PAJK 231928 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-240415-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure will cross over the area from the west
through Tuesday night. A storm force low will move into the
central Gulf of Alaska Wednesday, then track ESE to the 
southern Panhandle Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ011-240415-
Glacier Bay-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft then subsiding.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas building to 5 ft. Rain with snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-240415-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt early in the morning, becoming N 
20 kt, then becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4
ft then subsiding.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-240415-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable, then S 
in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW late. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-240415-
Icy Strait-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-240415-
Cross Sound-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft. S 
swell.
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-240415-
Stephens Passage-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Wind gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas building to 
4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-240415-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming N 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-240415-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind
gusts to 30 kt near the ocean entrance in the morning. Seas 4 ft,
except 13 ft near ocean entrances.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 30 kt becoming N. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 
ft, except 14 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-240415-
Frederick Sound-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-240415-
Sumner Strait-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind
gusts to 30 kt near the ocean entrance in the morning. Seas 4 ft,
except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE late 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, 
except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-240415-
Clarence Strait-
1028 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft then subsiding, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 15 kt late. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft, except 14 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

773 
FZAK51 PAJK 240036
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-241730-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force low moves into the central Gulf of Alaska Wednesday
with the associated front impacting the outer coast Wednesday 
afternoon. The low tracks ESE to the southern Panhandle through 
Wednesday night reaching Cape Decision early Thursday morning. 

$$

PKZ011-241730-
Glacier Bay-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow in the
evening. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-241730-
Northern Lynn Canal-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft
or less.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-241730-
Southern Lynn Canal-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N late. Gusts to 45 kt
in the evening. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-241730-
Icy Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt late. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Rain. Snow late. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-241730-
Cross Sound-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell.
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt late. Seas
10 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-241730-
Stephens Passage-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Rain
in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Rain in the evening, then snow and rain 
late.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-241730-
Northern Chatham Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming N late. Gusts to 45 kt
in the evening. Seas 6 ft. Rain. Snow late. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-241730-
Southern Chatham Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas
6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 14 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-241730-
Frederick Sound-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft late. Rain in the evening, then rain
and snow late. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-241730-
Sumner Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in 
the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 8 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow late. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-241730-
Clarence Strait-
336 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft
late. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft 
building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 13 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow late. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau
AK 1046 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday / Monday has widespread showers
moving from the gulf eastward over the panhandle. Most of the
showers are rain occasionally mixed with snow, although the more
northern locales are see more of a wet snow with daytime highs at or
slightly warmer than freezing. The showers will be diminishing from
the northwest overnight and much of SE AK will be dry Tuesday. Minor
areas of snow in the north as when the surface ridge moves through
starts light southerly wind into Tuesday night that may trigger some
very light snow across the northern panhandle.

The next system develops and moves out of the Pacific and into the
northern half of the gulf. Overall models agree on significant
feature, substantial front with 45 to 50 kt winds in the marine area
which should lead to gusty winds along coastal zones especially for
the southern panhandle. Situation looked strong enough that a Wind
Watch will be issued this afternoon with the afternoon package for
Wednesday morning to Wednesday evening.

Accumulating snows are on the tap across the northern third to half
of panhandle, for Wednesday to Wednesday night with varying amounts
that will be fine tuned over next day or so. Initial looks are for a
few inches total.

Northeast gulf coast will see precipitation start Tuesday night, and
then spread into the panhandle during the day.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday night/...Some significant
changes have been made to the early portion of this extended range
forecast. Specifically, the forecast now features a high end gale,
possibly storm force, low in the central Gulf on Wednesday. The
associated front, which was in the forecast already, may result in
high winds along the central and southern outer coast. Model
agreement on the precise location and track of this feature is very
poor. Still all models are depicting a very strong system.
Given that, it was prudent, even necessary, to reflect this in the
extended range forecast. Forecast winds were scaled back somewhat
from the available models in order to account for uncertainty of
timing and track. At face value, some models are depicting a
hurricane force low. Official forecast winds truncated to 45 kts due
to uncertainty mention above as well as to not jerk the forecast
from high end small craft winds to hurricane force in just one
cycle. However, it is important to note that subsequent forecast may
result in storm force winds (or higher) depending on increased
forecast confidence and model convergence on a solution for this
system. By comparison, the remainder of the long range forecast is
rather blase in terms of winds.

Based on current forecast temperatures, the front on Wednesday may
produce some meaningful snow accumulations. Advisory level snow
totals are possible from Yakutat to Ketchikan Wednesday and
Wednesday night. At present, greatest snow totals on Wednesday are
in Yakutat, Haines Customs, and White Pass. By Wednesday night, the
snow maxima shifts slightly south with high end advisory amounts in
the Juneau area. Later on, into next weekend, more snow seems
likely, but it is still far to soon to make a call on how much or
where. Stay tuned.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening      for AKZ023-027-028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-041>043-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/CM

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