Small Craft Advisory 117, NWS Juneau, AK

922 
FZAK52 PAJK 231241
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-240645-
341 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure will cross over the area from the west
through Tuesday night. A storm force low will move into the
central Gulf of Alaska Wednesday, then track ESE to the 
southern Panhandle Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ041-240645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
341 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 14 ft. W
swell. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to storm force wind to 50 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt increasing to storm force wind to 55
kt late. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.THU...W storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-240645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
341 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 14 ft. W
swell. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to storm force wind to 50 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 45 kt becoming NW late. Gusts to 65 kt. 
Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.THU...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-240645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
341 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. W 
swell.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to storm force wind to 50 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt becoming NW late. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-240645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
341 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt in the morning diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 
16 ft. SW swell.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft. SW
swell. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt becoming E storm force wind to 50 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 40 kt becoming NW. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-240645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
341 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

314 
FZAK52 PAJK 240026
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-241830-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low moves into the central Gulf of Alaska Wednesday
with the associated front impacting the outer coast Wednesday 
afternoon. The low tracks ESE to the southern Panhandle through 
Wednesday night reaching Cape Decision early Thursday morning. 

$$

PKZ041-241830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 14 ft. SW
swell. 
.WED...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 45 kt becoming W storm force wind
to 55 kt late. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.THU...W storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas
27 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-241830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 14 ft. SW
swell. 
.WED...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt becoming NW storm force wind
to 50 kt late. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.THU...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-241830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt becoming NW late. Seas 19 ft.
Rain.
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to
14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming N. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-241830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the evening, then becoming
SE 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 40 kt becoming NW late. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to
12 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-241830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft. SW
swell. 
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow in the morning, then rain in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...NE gale to 40 kt becoming W late. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday / Monday has widespread showers
moving from the gulf eastward over the panhandle. Most of the
showers are rain occasionally mixed with snow, although the more
northern locales are see more of a wet snow with daytime highs at
or slightly warmer than freezing. The showers will be diminishing
from the northwest overnight and much of SE AK will be dry
Tuesday. Minor areas of snow in the north as when the surface
ridge moves through starts light southerly wind into Tuesday night
that may trigger some very light snow across the northern
panhandle.

The next system develops and moves out of the Pacific and into the
northern half of the gulf. Overall models agree on significant
feature, substantial front with 45 to 50 kt winds in the marine
area which should lead to gusty winds along coastal zones
especially for the southern panhandle. Situation looked strong
enough that a Wind Watch will be issued this afternoon with the
afternoon package for Wednesday morning to Wednesday evening.

Accumulating snows are on the tap across the northern third to
half of panhandle, for Wednesday to Wednesday night with varying
amounts that will be fine tuned over next day or so. Initial looks
are for a few inches total.

Northeast gulf coast will see precipitation start Tuesday night,
and then spread into the panhandle during the day.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday night/...Some significant
changes have been made to the early portion of this extended range
forecast. Specifically, the forecast now features a high end gale,
possibly storm force, low in the central Gulf on Wednesday. The
associated front, which was in the forecast already, may result in
high winds along the central and southern outer coast. Model
agreement on the precise location and track of this feature is
very poor. Still all models are depicting a very strong system.
Given that, it was prudent, even necessary, to reflect this in the
extended range forecast. Forecast winds were scaled back somewhat
from the available models in order to account for uncertainty of
timing and track. At face value, some models are depicting a
hurricane force low. Official forecast winds truncated to 45 kts
due to uncertainty mention above as well as to not jerk the
forecast from high end small craft winds to hurricane force in
just one cycle. However, it is important to note that subsequent
forecast may result in storm force winds (or higher) depending on
increased forecast confidence and model convergence on a solution
for this system. By comparison, the remainder of the long range
forecast is rather blase in terms of winds.

Based on current forecast temperatures, the front on Wednesday
may produce some meaningful snow accumulations. Advisory level
snow totals are possible from Yakutat to Ketchikan Wednesday and
Wednesday night. At present, greatest snow totals on Wednesday are
in Yakutat, Haines Customs, and White Pass. By Wednesday night,
the snow maxima shifts slightly south with high end advisory
amounts in the Juneau area. Later on, into next weekend, more snow
seems likely, but it is still far to soon to make a call on how
much or where. Stay tuned.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for AKZ023-027-028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-033-041>043-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau