Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Juneau, AK

612 
FZAK51 PAJK 210103
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-211830-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A front will continue to impact the region Saturday night. Gale
force westerly flow increases Saturday night into Sunday as a low
moves into the northeast gulf. SW flow will set up in the Gulf 
for Sunday night into Monday. 

$$

PKZ011-211830-
Glacier Bay-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 3 ft early in
the evening then 2 ft or less, then then 4 ft late. Rain and
snow. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-211830-
Northern Lynn Canal-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the evening then SE
late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow
showers and rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-211830-
Southern Lynn Canal-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft. Snow early in the evening. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers in the evening, then snow showers and rain showers late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft
or less. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-211830-
Icy Strait-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow early in the evening.
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. West of point Adolphus...SW winds 
increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-211830-
Cross Sound-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-211830-
Stephens Passage-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow early in
the evening. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-211830-
Northern Chatham Strait-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-211830-
Southern Chatham Strait-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 15 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 19 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 17 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 14 ft
near ocean entrances. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
14 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-211830-
Frederick Sound-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-211830-
Sumner Strait-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
early in the evening. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-211830-
Clarence Strait-
403 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 11 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tight low today kicked over north central panhandle,
with remains up the upper trough being forced into Canada. Strong
gusty winds diminished through mid day and the front moved through
and snow has changed to rain. Cooler air shifting precip to more
snow and mix to the southern. A front headed in from the west of
the southern a second, and on Sunday morning. Good precipitation
predominately for the southern half of the panhandle. Central and
northern panhandle may pick up significant snows Saturday and
Saturday night, so posting a Watch for snows there.

Winds with the Saturday front increasing to Gale force briefly,
and strong small crafts for Sunday. Westerly winds persisting with
strong flow and higher seas and swells towards the panhandle into
the starting part of the next week.

Data flow into the forecast office was low today so only minimal
changes were being made.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/ An
active pattern continues for SEAK through the long term forecast
period. A broad upper low develops over the Gulf of Alaska while
high pressure builds over the Pacific. These features support
continued westerly onshore flow. With this pattern, several
pieces of energy drop into the Gulf from the Bering Sea. In
return, these shorts waves and/or lows keep precipitation chances
elevated. New model runs and ensemble means have came into better
agreement on systems approaching the panhandle Monday into
Wednesday. Agreement rapidly decreases past this keeping any
changes limited to the first half of the period.

Impactful weather arrives on Sunday. A low develops south of the
Aleutians and moves NE towards the north central gulf coast. An
associated frontal band with a long fetch of moisture support
lifts through the panhandle through late Sunday night before
weakening into a shortwave or broad area of low pressure. With a
decent southerly push, temperatures are expected to warm
significantly allowing for the dominate p-type to fall as rain.
The exception will be for areas situated through the Icy Strait
corridor and through upper lynn canal. These areas could see
precipitation start as snow before changing to rain Sunday
afternoon. This is where the forecast challenge exists.

Temperatures aloft look to cool post front Saturday ahead of
Sunday's system. At the surface, temperatures remain warm as
southerly flow and increased winds allow for an above freezing
surface layer. There does exist the potential that areas including
Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway could remain snow for longer then
expected. If surface temperatures struggle to warm or heavy
rainfall rates bring cool temperatures to the surface, heavy
snowfall rates could occur at times. If this scenario plays out,
Advisory level snow amounts could be possible Sunday for these
areas.

By next week, a broad area of low pressure remains over the
panhandle keeping precipitation chances elevated through Monday.
Tuesday, the high pressure over the Pacific begins to shift NE
causing some surface ridging to build through the Gulf. This
feature provides some relief for the panhandle ahead of the next
low that looks to impact the panhandle by midweek.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for AKZ018-019-025.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>035-041>043-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/CC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau