Small Craft Advisory 109, NWS Juneau, AK

593 
FZAK52 PAJK 201213
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-210615-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low moves into the northwest gulf as an associated front moves
over the eastern gulf and panhandle Saturday. Gale force
westerly flow increases Saturday night into Sunday as the low
moves into the northeast gulf. 

$$

PKZ041-210615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-210615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming S. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-210615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the morning, then
becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 15 ft
building to 20 ft late. Rain.
.SUN...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-210615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell in 
the morning. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-210615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell late. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tight low today kicked over north central panhandle,
with remains up the upper trough being forced into Canada. Strong
gusty winds diminished through mid day and the front moved through
and snow has changed to rain. Cooler air shifting precip to more
snow and mix to the southern. A front headed in from the west of
the southern a second, and on Sunday morning. Good precipitation
predominately for the southern half of the panhandle. Central and
northern panhandle may pick up significant snows Saturday and
Saturday night, so posting a Watch for snows there.

Winds with the Saturday front increasing to Gale force briefly,
and strong small crafts for Sunday. Westerly winds persisting with
strong flow and higher seas and swells towards the panhandle into
the starting part of the next week.

Data flow into the forecast office was low today so only minimal
changes were being made.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/ An
active pattern continues for SEAK through the long term forecast
period. A broad upper low develops over the Gulf of Alaska while
high pressure builds over the Pacific. These features support
continued westerly onshore flow. With this pattern, several
pieces of energy drop into the Gulf from the Bering Sea. In
return, these shorts waves and/or lows keep precipitation chances
elevated. New model runs and ensemble means have came into better
agreement on systems approaching the panhandle Monday into
Wednesday. Agreement rapidly decreases past this keeping any
changes limited to the first half of the period.

Impactful weather arrives on Sunday. A low develops south of the
Aleutians and moves NE towards the north central gulf coast. An
associated frontal band with a long fetch of moisture support
lifts through the panhandle through late Sunday night before
weakening into a shortwave or broad area of low pressure. With a
decent southerly push, temperatures are expected to warm
significantly allowing for the dominate p-type to fall as rain.
The exception will be for areas situated through the Icy Strait
corridor and through upper lynn canal. These areas could see
precipitation start as snow before changing to rain Sunday
afternoon. This is where the forecast challenge exists.

Temperatures aloft look to cool post front Saturday ahead of
Sunday's system. At the surface, temperatures remain warm as
southerly flow and increased winds allow for an above freezing
surface layer. There does exist the potential that areas including
Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway could remain snow for longer then
expected. If surface temperatures struggle to warm or heavy
rainfall rates bring cool temperatures to the surface, heavy
snowfall rates could occur at times. If this scenario plays out,
Advisory level snow amounts could be possible Sunday for these
areas.

By next week, a broad area of low pressure remains over the
panhandle keeping precipitation chances elevated through Monday.
Tuesday, the high pressure over the Pacific begins to shift NE
causing some surface ridging to build through the Gulf. This
feature provides some relief for the panhandle ahead of the next
low that looks to impact the panhandle by midweek.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for AKZ018-019-025.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>035-041>043-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/CC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKST FRI FEB 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.92N 130.03W
02/19/2021  M12.0 INCH       PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HYDER RECEIVED 12-13 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
            BASED ON MULTIPLE OBSERVERS.

&&