Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Juneau, AK

December 31, 2020

NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 31, 2020, 4:00 PM AKST. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 31, 2020, 4:00 PM AKST (01:00 UTC)
Expired
Jan 5, 2021, 3:21 PM AKST
In force
5 days
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted.

054 
FZAK53 PAJK 010100
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-011900-
Yakutat Bay-
400 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas 5 building to 8
ft late. SW swell in the evening.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$
10 follow-up statements
235 
FZAK53 PAJK 011239
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Fri Jan 1 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-020645-
Yakutat Bay-
339 AM AKST Fri Jan 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$
235 
FZAK53 PAJK 020024
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 PM AKST Fri Jan 1 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-021830-
Yakutat Bay-
324 PM AKST Fri Jan 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft in the evening, then 
subsiding. SW swell.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain with
snow. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$
736 
FZAK53 PAJK 021245
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-030645-
Yakutat Bay-
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$
203 
FZAK53 PAJK 030055
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKST Sat Jan 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-031900-
Yakutat Bay-
355 PM AKST Sat Jan 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$
378 
FZAK53 PAJK 031247
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-040700-
Yakutat Bay-
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain
showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$
622 
FZAK53 PAJK 040030
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKST Sun Jan 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-041830-
Yakutat Bay-
330 PM AKST Sun Jan 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. S
swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 10 ft. 

$$
973 
FZAK53 PAJK 041255
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 AM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-050700-
Yakutat Bay-
355 AM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. SE
swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$
466 
FZAK53 PAJK 050021
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-051830-
Yakutat Bay-
321 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Gusts to 40 kt.
Seas 13 ft. SE swell. Rain late. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. S
swell. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$
296 
FZAK53 PAJK 051250
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-060700-
Yakutat Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Wind gusts to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft. S swell.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE in the evening. Gusts to 40 
kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. Rain. Snow late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Rain
showers. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$
130 
FZAK53 PAJK 060021
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-061830-
Yakutat Bay-
321 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming S 40 kt in the evening, then
becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 8 ft building to 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. Rain
showers. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 31, 3:04 PM AKST, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 3:04 PM AKST, 56 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...The next weather system continues to advance on the
panhandle. Clearing and associated patchy fog for parts of the
central and northern panhandle on Thursday evening will be
displaced by increasing cloud cover as a front moves in from the
south. As the front pushes to north, rain and snow will spread
across the southern and central panhandle. Temperatures in the
south will favor rain, while the central panhandle is more favored
to receive snow. It is anticipated that cold air will become
trapped in the valleys of Eastern Misty Fjords, enabling
substantial snowfall around Hyder. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect for them from late Thursday through Friday evening. The
front is expected to weaken and dissipate as it pushes northward.
Therefore, am only anticipating light snow for northern parts of
the area, although parts of the Icy Strait Corridor could receive
up to 3 inches. The flow pattern should keep the weather drier for
the northeast gulf coast until Saturday when the second front
gets closer.

This second frontal band will spread into the southern half of
the panhandle on a similar track late Friday through Saturday.
Expect this front to maintain cohesion and make it further
north ultimately reaching Haines and Skagway. Expect to see the
heavier snow band (3 to 5 inches) to be from the Icy Strait
corridor and northward. Overall, a snowy pattern for the central
and northern parts of SE.

The other notable hazards will be the winds. Gales and small
crafts will dominate the for the marine waters offshore the
and some of the inner channels. Strong winds are possible with the
first front moving into the panhandle through Thursday night for
parts of the outer coast. A mountain wave will likely develop in
Juneau late Thursday night and bring gusty conditions to Downtown
through Friday. Downsloping from these winds could create
localized warmer conditions, reducing snowfall totals in these
areas. Forecaster confidence was average.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/ As of 9pm Wednesday.
Active weather pattern through the extended forecast with multiple
lows or troughs tracking through the area from south to north.
Each system looks to take a similar path, rotating about a larger
cyclonic flow and tracing the periphery of the Gulf of Alaska.

Behind Friday's main front is looking more convective/showery, so
have adjusted forecast wording to reflect the more on/off nature
of the precipitation expected through the next several days. The air
should be cold enough for snow showers, especially over the
northern inner channels and during overnight hours. However,
accumulations will be very dependent on track/timing of said
showers.

Model agreement on timing of upper level, let alone surface,
features is rather poor. Plus, models tend to struggle in
situations with multiple low centers, giving more weight to a
different one with each new model run. This will affect the marine
wind forecast for wind shifts and speed enhancements as each
trough passes by. Therefore there is lower confidence on when
these or the greatest POP will be, but does appear to be active
with little in the way of breaks outside of Haines/Skagway/Yakutat
throughout the next week. For this reason have made few changes
and limited POP to the likely category for most of the extended
period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST
     Friday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-051>053.

&&

GFS/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 31, 4:00 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK23 hr
Dec 31, 4:02 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK36 hr
Dec 31, 4:02 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK4 days
Dec 31, 4:11 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK4 days
Jan 1, 3:39 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK60 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.