Gale Warning 205, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...Forecast looks to be on track as our first storm
force low of the season continues to move in on the panhandle.
The low is currently in the southern Gulf and will move northeast
toward Cape Fairweather. Wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph have
already been observed across the region and will continue to
increase as the low draws closer. Expect the fastest winds to
begin in southern areas this afternoon and then for the peak wind
window to migrate north through the evening into Saturday morning.
A smattering of high wind warnings have been issued for multiple
zones with timing that reflects this.

Rain, heavy at times, has has been impacting the region all day
and looks to continue for the foreseeable future. While we should
begin to see rain rates begin to taper off going into Saturday, 48
hour totals generally in the 2 to 4" range over the duration of
the event still appear likely. Main areas of concern will be for
the rivers and streams through the Icy Strait corridor and into
Juneau where greatest precip amounts are expected and a flood
watch is in place. Also, rain rates through the day today in Sitka
have historically been associated with landslides therefore
leading to the issuance of a flash flood watch.

.LONG TERM.../Sun through Fri as of 10 pm Thu/ The upper level
pattern is gradually shifting in the extended range. What starts
out as a broad strong trough over much of the state on Sun
gradually gives way to ridging over the gulf by mid next week.
Past mid week though, the overall pattern becomes murky as there
are indications of a progressive and active trough/ridge pattern
setting up. However, timing and strength of the individual
features varies widely between models, and it is generally
flattening out into a more zonal flow pattern right now. Overall
the general trend in the forecast mainly consists of a drier,
cooler, and less active early to mid week period followed by a
more active and wetter late week period.

Closer to the ground, the two main features of note are the
lingering northerly gulf low early in the week, and a potential
front for the late week period. The lingering low early in the
week is what remains of the system that brought the higher winds
and heavy rain in the short range and at this point it is slowly
weakening away. Its last gasp, is continued showers for most of
the panhandle into early monday, but somewhat strong W flow across
the southern gulf will be the bigger concern. Ended up increasing
winds to 25 kt in southern 310 and into 41 Sun because of this.

Things dry out early to mid week due to developing ridging in the
gulf and more offshore flow developing. Temperatures at this time
will be cooler then normal across the panhandle as lingering cold
air from the strong trough from the weekend will still be around,
and some breaks in the clouds develop. In fact, some areas in the
northern and central panhandle, may see their first freeze of the
season mid next week.

The next front to take aim at the panhandle comes late in the
extended period, but guidance does not have a good handle on it
other then agreeing there will be a front in the gulf sometime
next Thu or Fri. Timing is the main variable as that varies
between Thu and Fri on when it will hit the panhandle depending on
the model. Overall there is enough agreement that winds have been
increased in the gulf and inner channels (nothing more then 20 kt
for now), a warming trend has been included, and chances for
precip have been increased (to 60 to 70 percent) for Thu into Thu
night as the front approaches.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ023-026-027.
     Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AKZ020>022-025-026.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ021-024.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for AKZ023-024.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ020-022-025.
     Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ020-021-025.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind Saturday morning for AKZ023.
     High Wind Warning until midnight AKDT tonight for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKDT tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ018-028.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for AKZ019.
     Flood Watch Saturday evening for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ019.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ031-033-035-036-041>043-051-310.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-032-034-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-053.

&&

JDR/KRT

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