Winter Weather Advisory 97, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low in the Western Bering Sea will continue
to move east near and passing just south of St Lawrence Island
will be the primary influence for most of the forecast area
through Wednesday. A strong weather front associated with the low
will continue to weaken as it pushes east onto the West Coast
this evening and into the Western Interior tomorrow morning. The
front will bring snow to St Lawrence Island this afternoon, and
the Lower Yukon Delta tonight. Snow will spread north to the
Bering Strait on Tuesday. Warming temperatures will bring a mix of
rain and snow to areas south of Nome Tuesday. Strong pressure
gradients developing in the Interior and Arctic will bring strong
gusty winds locally. Winds gusting around 50 mph on St Lawrence
Island this evening as the front moves to the coast. Winds will
diminish as the front gets to the mainland. Strong gradient across
the Alaska range will produce strong gusty gap winds, and the
Tanana Valley Jet will set up as high pressure pushes west into
the Upper Tanana Valley with winds gusting to around 45 mph near
Delta Junction. Strong southerly winds will develop through and
near the Alaska Range passes and northern foothills on Wednesday.
Strong east winds will develop along the eastern Arctic Coast
Tuesday evening and will bring blowing and drifting snow that may
impact visibility and travel in the area. Temperatures will be
warming slowly the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 18/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z
surface analysis as well as the upper level data, and verified
well against the 18 surface analysis. The model suite continue to
display limited spread in model solutions on major features in the
short and mid range but begin to display significant differences
by the end of the week on a very strong low expected to move into
the Aleutians on Friday morning. Current model spread on the
depth of this low is around 20 mb. Attm the track of the low
appears to keep winds offshore and limit wave runup and coastal
impacts in Northern Alaska.

Aloft...A deep longwave trough with axis over central Alaska
southward into the Gulf of Alaska will begin to cut off the upper
level low in the Gulf of Alaska and transition to a more zonal
flow patter as a weak ridge builds into the eastern Bering and
then into the Western Gulf of Alaska as a deep upper level low
digs south over the Western Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday. The
deep trough will continue to dig south and east over the Eastern
Bering Sea and Western Gulf of Alaska on Thursday and Friday.

On the surface a 977 mb low over the Western Bering Sea will
weakena and continue to push east just to the south of St Lawrence
Island tonight. The low will then drift north through the Bering
Strait on Wednesday. Weak troughing will remain over the Interior.
A strong pressure gradient will develop along the Arctic Coast
especially to the east of Point Barrow Tuesday night and into
Wednesday as the previously mentioned low moves north into the
Bering Strait and high pressure builds near Banks Island. Winds
combined with light snow will likely produce limited visibility
as well as blowing and drifting snow along the Eastern Arctic
Coast especially to the east of Prudhoe Bay Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Models continue to indicate a deep low in the Northern Pacific
continuing to deep and move east just north of the Aleutian
Islands on Thursday and Friday. There is considerable spread
among the models on the strength of this system ranging from
around 960 mb to 946 mb. At this time it appears that the
strongest winds will remain over the Southern Bering Sea, however
strong and gusty offshore winds are expected over the Central and
Northern Bering Sea as well as the West Coast south of the Bering
Strait, especially in the lower YK Delta on Thursday night and
Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Generally cloudy, but a few breaks
are possible this evening and tonight as the weather front pulls
out to the northeast. Light snow or flurries mainly east of
Utqiagvik today will taper off. Patchy fog. Along the coast highs
will be in the 20s, with lows in the teens. Inland and in the
Brooks Range highs in the lower teens and lows in the single
digits above. Low pressure pushing into the area from the west
will combine with high pressure over the Arctic and high pressure
pushing west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range to
produce strong gusty winds across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday with areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility likely.

West Coast and Western Interior...High pressure in the Chukchi Sea
extends south through the Bering Strait and across the West Coast
of Alaska this evening. The high pressure will continue to weaken
and slide east into the Western and Central Interior tonight as a
strong low in the Bering Sea moves east. Weather front will bring
snow to St Lawrence Island this evening and to the Lower Yukon
Delta tonight. Snow will spread up the coast to the Bering Strait
tomorrow. The snow mixes with rain in the Lower Yukon Delta
Tuesday afternoon. Snow will move into the Middle Yukon Valley
Tuesday night. Snowfall amounts will generally be less than 4
inches. Winds on St Lawrence Island continue to increase this
afternoon and will continue into this evening with winds gusting
to 55 mph this evening. Strong winds will spread east tonight
south of the Bering Strait, but diminish as they approach the
coast, but still be gusting near 40 mph on the Bering Strait coast
and in Norton Sound. Tuesday warming temperatures will push highs
from the Seward Peninsula south pushing into the upper 30s and
lower 40s, while lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Quiet across the Interior with high
clouds slowly moving north and east out of the area as weak high
pressure moves in from the southwest. Winds continue to be gusty
in the Delta Junction area the Tanana Valley Jet continuing this
evening. Winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will ramp up tomorrow to
the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts to 45 mph. The Tanana Valley Jet
will weaken tomorrow evening however gusty gap winds develop
tomorrow night along and through the Alaska Range Passes with
wind gust over 50 mph expected. Lows 10 to 20 above with highs in
the mid 20s to mid 30s. Warmer temperatures through the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated surf on the
outer coastlines through the week with wave runup 1 to 2 feet
above the normal high tide line.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models continue to indicate
a deep low in the Northern Pacific continuing to deep and move
east just north of the Aleutian Islands on Thursday and Friday.
There is considerable spread among the models on the strength of
this system ranging from around 960 mb to 946 mb. At this time it
appears that the strongest winds will remain over the Southern
Bering Sea, however strong and gusty offshore winds are expected
over the Central and Northern Bering Sea as well as the West Coast
south of the Bering Strait, especially in the lower YK Delta on
Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC OCT 21

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