Small Craft Advisory 164, NWS Fairbanks, AK

488 
FZAK51 PAFG 201201
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-210200-
401 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong pressure gradient extends from the Arctic Coast to 75N
and will slowly lift to the N today and tonight to lie between 73N
and 77N. The strong gradient will continue to lift to the N Thu.

$$

PKZ225-210200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
401 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-210200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
401 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-210200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
401 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-210200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
401 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to
4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-210200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
401 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding
to 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

976 
FZAK51 PAFG 202208
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-211430-
208 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 mb low near St Lawrence Island will continue to weaken and
move north through the Bering Strait this evening and dissipate 
on Thursday. A ridge of high pressure extends west of from Banks 
Island to the Dateline.

$$

PKZ225-211430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
208 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-211430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
208 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-211430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
208 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-211430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
208 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-211430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
208 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
140 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A low near St Lawrence Island will continue to weaken
as the associated weather front stalls the the West Coast tonight.
Strong pressure gradient will hold on over the Chukchi Sea with
strong northeast winds. The strong winds combined with light snow
this evening and into tomorrow will produce low visibilities in
blowing snow. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the
Eastern Arctic Coast. The ongoing Tanana Valley Jet will continue
to produce winds gusting around 40 mph around Delta Junction and
30 mph in Nenana into this evening. As the Tanana Valley Jet
diminishes this evening, strong gap winds will also develop late
this evening with gusts around 50 mph in passes west of the Tok
Cutoff.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 19/12z model suite initialized well against the
surface analysis as well as upper air observations with the
exception of the deep low currently rolling through the Western
Aleutians. Same can be said of verification at 18z with the entire
model suite continuing to struggle with the depth, position, and
track of the deep low in the Western Aleutians. The models
continue to struggle with the position, track and strength of this
low into the weekend. At this time all the models continue to
rapidly deepen the low as it moves east along the Aleutian
Islands and then weaken it as it moves into the northern Gulf of
Alaska. This track will limit coastal impacts for Northern Alaska
with the exception of minor elevated water levels along the
northern coastline of St Lawrence Island Friday and Saturday as
the low pushes south and east producing sustained northerly to
northeasterly winds over St Lawrence Island.

Aloft...At 500 hpa ridging continues over eastern Alaska and the
Yukon while a broad trough continues over the West Coast and
Eastern Bering Sea. This trough will push east into Western
Interior as a ridge builds into the Central and Eastern Bering
Sea on Thursday and into the West Coast and Western Interior
Thursday and Friday. A strong upper level low will push east along
the Aleutians Friday and into Saturday and provide a favorable
upper level environment for development of the deep surface low
forecasted to move along the Aleutian Islands Friday and Saturday.

Surface...A 978 mb low currently over St Lawrence Island will
stall in place and weaken through Wednesday and then will slowly
drift to the north through the Bering Strait by Thursday. A weak
trough over the southern interior will push north tonight as a
weak high pressure system over the Copper River Basin moves north
into the Interior tonight. The low pressure system mentioned
previously that the models are having trouble with strength and
track pushes northeast into the Western Aleutian Islands as a 974
to 980 mb low on Wednesday evening. The low then pushes east
northeast into the Southern Bering Sea as a 964 to 950 mb low on
Thursday morning and deepens rapidly to the 949 mb to 941 mb range
over the Central Bering Sea Thursday evening. The low then begins
to fill and move southeast to be located 150 nm north of Cold Bay
by Friday morning. The low continues to weaken slowly and moves
into the northwestern Gulf of Alaska Friday evening.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...East winds with increasing clouds
and chances of snow will continue through this evening. Expect
visibilities to drop in blowing snow this evening. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for for the Eastern Arctic Coast
including Prudhoe Bay and Barter Island. Visibility will drop
to around one half mile or less at times from Nuiqsut east
beginning this evening and continuing into Wednesday morning.
Winds increasing to 25 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph by late this
evening and will continue into Wednesday morning before
diminishing. Highs will be in the 20s with lows in the teens.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong winds and precip continue
to diminish behind the front that pushed into the Western Interior
this afternoon and will stall there and weaken into Wednesday.
The transition from snow to rain will continue along the coast from
the Bering Strait south this afternoon and evening. Inland areas
east of Marshall will see mainly snow with just a chance of the
snow mixing with rain this evening. Precipitation will remain
mainly west and southwest of Galena. Winds from the Bering Strait
south will diminish this evening and overnight as the weather
front stalls over the Western Interior. High temperatures from
the Seward Peninsula south in the upper 30s and lower 40s, while
lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, to the north highs in
the 20s and lows in the teens. Inland highs in the 30s and lows in
the 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Remains relatively quiet across
the Interior this evening and into Wednesday. Clouds continue to
increase over the Interior with flurries possible at times
especially north and west of Fairbanks. The ongoing Tanana Valley
Jet will continue to produce winds gusting around 40 mph around
Delta Junction and 30 mph in Nenana into this evening. As the
Tanana Valley Jet diminishes this evening, strong gap winds will
also develop late this evening with gusts around 50 mph in passes
west of the Tok Cutoff. Expect lows in the teens and 20s above
with highs in the mid 20s to around 40.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 4...Elevated surf will
continue on the outer coastlines through Thursday with wave runup
of up to 2 feet above the normal high tide line on south and
southwest facing coastlines. Elevated water levels are possible
along the northern coast of St Lawrence Island Friday as winds
shift to the north through the Bering Strait and Northern Bering
Sea behind the deep low forecasted to push into the Southeastern
Bering Sea.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-
PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ245-PKZ500.
&&

CCC OCT 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1204 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

AKZ211-213-214-201400-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
1204 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...Elevated Surf continues south of the Bering Strait...

Elevated surf with wave runup of up to 2 feet above the normal
high tide line is expected through Thursday.

Outer coastal areas with south and southwest facing coastlines
from the Bering Strait south and the south side of St Lawrence
Island will see the highest surf.

A strong low pressure system near St Lawrence Island will slowly
weaken and eventually drift north into the Chukchi Sea Thursday.

Residents should move boats and other property well above the
normal high tide line in advance of the storm.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.