Winter Weather Advisory 95, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
452 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure north of the state will continue while a
series of low pressure systems bring winds gusting to 55 mph in
and near the Alaska Range Passes and snow to the Eastern and
Central Interior tonight and Monday where Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
form the Western Interior, West Coast as well as the North Slope
and Brooks Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 11/00Z model solutions remain in good agreement on
the position and strength of major synoptic scale features as fall
are strength however there still remains significant difference
in the models on the location of a strong low pressure expected to
develop in the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday. The NAM continues to
remain an outlier solution in keeping with continuity we so leaned
a bit more toward the GFS and ECMWF for precip position and a
broad blend of models for probabilities. Minimal changes were made
to the temperatures as the current forecast looks pretty good.

Aloft at 500 mb broad longwave troughing continue over Northern
Alaska with no significant change expected through the end of the
week. Shortwaves that support surface low pressure systems diving
south and east of the Eastern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska
will continue through the week. A strong shortwave currently east
of Bristol Bay will continue to push south and east into the Gulf
of Alaska tonight and Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks
currently around 3 below will drop to around 7 below by mid week
and remain around 7 below into the end of the week.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Generally cloudy with some light
snow or flurries, but no significant accumulations expected.
East winds continue at 5 to 15 mph, but will be picking up to 10
to 25 mph this evening in most of the coastal areas. With open
water along the coast expect some patchy dense fog at times near
the coast. Fog and flurries will increase Monday night reducing
visibility along the coast. Highs in the teens to lower 30s, lows
in the single digits above to the lower 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...A 989 mb low over Bristol Bay
will continue to push south and east into the Northern Gulf of
Alaska while spreading a mix of rain and snow north to the Seward
Peninsula, the Middle Yukon Valley, mainly south of Galena
tonight through this morning, North of the Seward Peninsula and
Galena generally cloudy, but expect some breaks. Winds along the
coast offshore at 5 to 15 mph, except 10 to 25 mph in Kotzebue
Sound and the Southern Chukchi Sea. On St Lawrence Island and
Diomede mainly north winds 10 to 25 mph. Inland winds variable,
mainly east, to 10 mph. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with
lows in the lower 20s to mid 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy skies again over much
of the Interior with light winds over the Interior, however a Wind
Advisory remains in effect of the Eastern Alaska Range where winds
are expected to guts to near 50 mph this morning and then
diminish in the afternoon. A strong low in the Gulf of Alaska will
send a weather front in the southeast Interior this evening and
Tuesday with snow spreading into the area. Model track on this
storm has improved with the Tok area looking to be the bullseye
for this next snow event. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for zone 224 for 4 to 8 inches of snow that is expected to
fall beginning tonight in the Upper Tanana Valley areas. Winter
Weather Advisory is also in effect for zone 226 for 6 to 12 inches
of snow. The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur along the Tok
Cutoff. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Broad low pressure will remain
over the state as a couple of strong lows dive out of the Bering
Sea in the the Gulf of Alaska. Strong north flow through the
Bering Strait will bring snow to the Capes, while fronts spinning
around the lows in the gulf will bring chances of snow to the
Interior. Temperatures slowly cooling.

&&

.Hydrology...none.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ224-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ245-PKZ500-PKZ505.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC OCT 21