Winter Weather Advisory 79, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1254 PM AKDT Thu Apr 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over Alaska through the weekend and into
early next week will bring warm and dry conditions to most of
Northern Alaska into early next week. The exception to this will
be the  of the Northwest Coast where strong winds, and blowing
snow are expected Friday. High temperatures in the Southern
Interior are expected to reach into the lower 60s by early next
week and will continue to ripen and produce runoff from snow melt
at lower elevations over much of the Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...
The 15/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z
observational data and verified well against the 18z observational
data. The 15/12z model suite remains consistent with previous
model runs in producing a strong blocking high pressure system
over Alaska beginning late Friday and continuing into early next
week and there is limited model spread from model family to model
family in both the near term as well as the mid range forecasts.
Difference between model families emerge across the suite of
models by the middle of next week.

Aloft...
The current long wave pattern consists of a ridge over Western
Canada and the Eastern Pacific, a trough over Alaska and the
Western Gulf of Alaska, and another ridge over the Bering Sea. The
ridge over the Bering Sea will build east over Mainland Alaska
tonight and Fri. By the weekend the pattern will consist of a
strong ridge over Western Canada and Mainland Alaska, and a trough
over the Bering Sea and Western Gulf of Alaska that will persist
into early next week. What this means is that the areas of light
snow and rain associate with the weakening trough over the
Interior will taper off tonight, then skies clearing and little if
any precip over Northern Alaska from Fri night into the weekend
under the ridge aloft. Additionally, the building ridge will cause
sunny skies and well above normal temperatures over all of
Northern Alaska this weekend into next week.

Surface...
An weak occluded front stretches from near McGrath to Arctic
Village to a 1018 MB low near Inuvik will continue to weaken as it
moves east over the Central and Eastern Interior tonight and
Friday. Light rain and snow showers associated with this front
will continue to taper off tonight.

High pressure over the Bering and Chukchi Seas will continue to
build over the North Slope and Western Coast this evening, and
over the Interior on Fri. This will bring clearing skies most
areas, but will see areas of nocturnal fog dense at times along
the Norton Sound Coast this evening into Friday. Dense Fog
headlines have been issued for these areas.

A warm front in the Western Bering Sea will move along the West
Coast Fri AM, and over the Western Arctic Coast Fri PM, and to the
Eastern Arctic Coast Sat AM. This will bring fog and a slight
chance of rain to the West Coast Fri, and to the Western Arctic
Fri PM. This will bring SW winds 15-25 kt to the West Coast Fri
into Sat, and SW wind 25-35 kt to the Western Arctic Coast Fri PM
Fri and Fri night with the strongest winds, and with gusts to 45
kt. from Cape Lisburne to Point Lay. Reduced visibility in blowing
snow may occur in areas that receive the strongest winds and
where the snowpack has not been glazed by the strong April sun.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Snow pack will continue to ripen south of the Brooks Range, with
significant melting beginning in the Interior next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ235.
&&

CCC APR 21