Brisk Wind Advisory 154, NWS Fairbanks, AK

849 
FZAK52 PAFG 171335
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
535 AM AKDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-180245-
535 AM AKDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1005 MB low 100 NM west of Anadyr will move to 100 NM north of 
Wrangel Is as a 1005 mb low by 4pm Sat, then to 500 NM north of 
Utqiagvik as a 1010 mb low by 4am Sun. A weather front stretching
south from this low will weaken tonight and Sat. A strong cold 
front over Russia will move to Wrangel Island on Sun, then move 
east across the North Slope of Alaska on Mon.

$$

PKZ200-180245-
Norton Sound-
535 AM AKDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-180245-
Dall Point to Wales-
535 AM AKDT Sat Apr 17 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or 
less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-180245-
Kotzebue Sound-
535 AM AKDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-180245-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
535 AM AKDT Sat Apr 17 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm windy with along the West Coast and North Slope into the
Weekend. Warmer temperatures in the Interior with 60s forecast in
the Southern Interior and 50s in the Northern interior developing
by late in the weekend and into early next week. Breakup has begun
and will continue into next week with significant snowmelt and
runoff over much of the Interior as freezing levels push 3k to 4k
feet over the weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...
The 16/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z
observational data and verified well against the 18z observational
data. Models continue to show a general pattern of a strong
blocking high pressure ridge both aloft and at the surface
developing over Alaska through the Weekend and into early next
week. Differences arise with how much a strong shortwave moving
over the blocking ridge over Alaska will weaken the ridge and how
far south the cold air associated with this shortwave will move.
Opted to maintain forecast continuity in keeping most of the cold
air north of the Brooks Range with only minor cooling in the
Northeastern Interior as the system passes southeast into Canada
on Tuesday. At this time, we are uncertain that the shortwave
will move south of the Brooks Range with the strong ridge in place
over the the Interior and Southern Alaska, so we have kept
extended forecast next week much warmer than normal as result.

On the surface...
High pressure over the Western Interior and North Slope will
build over all of the the Interior tonight and then persist into
Sat, and weaken slightly on Sun. Nocturnal stratus and fog that
has formed this morning in under the high has diminished this
afternoon. The stratus/fog will reform late tonight across the
West Coast, Western Interior and North Slope before burning off
again Sat. The same pattern will continue through Sun.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The strong and gusty winds over St Lawrence Island and through
the Bering Strait are now pushing into Point Hope by 8am and to
Point Lay where Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories continue into Saturday morning. South winds 20 to 30
mph will also develop through Brooks Range passes today and
continue tonight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow and blowing snow over the western portions of the North
Slope and Western Brooks Range will continue through Saturday
morning before diminishing. A Winter Weather Advisory remains for
the Northwest Coast through Saturday morning. Winds and clouds
will decrease over the North slope on Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will continue through
the weekend and into early next week. A weak system pushing into
the Northeastern Interior will knock a few degrees off of
temperatures on Tuesday of next week but will not significantly
slow down the significant snowmelt that is ongoing and will
continue into next week. Freezing level will remain at nearly 3k
feet to 4k feet over the Southern and Eastern interior with many
locations not dropping below freezing at night. Will need to
closely monitor runoff and ponding issues as well as breakup on
rivers next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Freezing level will remain at nearly 3k feet to 4k feet over the
Southern and Eastern interior with many locations not dropping
below freezing at night. Will need to closely monitor runoff and
ponding issues as well as breakup on rivers next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ207.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.
&&

CCC APR 21