Winter Weather Advisory 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
603 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather front that brought blizzard conditions to the west coast
on Monday will bring snowfall to the central Interior today as
the front moves east, with the snowfall gradually tapering off in
intensity. Snowfall over the Interior will be reinvigorated
tonight and Wednesday as a system move in from the south. Strong
northerly winds will develop through Alaska Range passes Wednesday
night and Thursday, creating the potential for blowing snow. A
cold airmass will push east across the forecast area for the
second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 09/00 UTC model suite initialized well when compared to
observational data. The models are in generally good agreement
with the overall synoptic scale pattern out through the weekend.
We will lean more on the NAM for the wind forecast for the added
detail in the terrain. For our PoPs we will utilize an ensemble
approach, primarily leaning to the SREF to help bring up values in
the short term.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough stretches from a 486 dam low over
eastern Russia southward across the Bering Sea, while a ridge
stretches from the Gulf of Alaska northward across ALCan Border.
Both will slide to the east over the next 48 hours. A shortwave
trough will push north over the central and eastern Interior
Wednesday into Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front will bring snowfall to the Central Interior today as it
slowly slides to the east. Snowfall will gradually decrease in
intensity along the front today. Up to two inches of snow is
expected today, mainly for areas to the west of Fairbanks and in
the Alaska Range. Otherwise temperatures today will be above
normal, with most of the Interior pushing into the upper 20s or
lower 30s. Late tonight and Wednesday a shortwave will push north
over the Interior. This will help to reinvigorate snowfall along
the existing boundary. Areas to the east of Tanana will see 2 to
4 inches of Snow Wednesday and Wednesday night. Snowfall on
Wednesday will be a bit heavier in the Alaska Range, with 5 to 7
inches of snowfall expected. The Alaska Range will see periods of
gusty southerly gap wind through early Wednesday. A cold front
moving in from the west will bring gusty easterly winds to the
Interior late in the day on Wednesday, while gusty northerly gap
winds will develop in the Alaska Range. The gusty winds, when
combined with recent snowfall will result in blowing snow that may
result in travel difficulties, especially over summits in the
northern Interior as well as passes in the Alaska Range. Most
locations will see highs in the 20s on Wednesday. Temperatures on
Thursday will drop well below normal, with highs in the single
digits and lows on Thursday night in the 20s below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Conditions will be relatively quiet today now that the front that
brought unsettled weather to the region yesterday has pushed to
the east. All of the remaining hazards for the area were cancelled
with the issuance of the morning package. We will still see a few
weak disturbances that will push onshore today, that will bring
chances for snow. Westerly winds will pick up on Wednesday as a
cold front pushes through the area. This front will bring a big
drop in temperatures for Wednesday night and Thursday. Aside from
below normal temperatures on Thursday, the weather is expected to
be relatively quiet.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Gusty southerly gap wind will continue this morning in the Brooks
Range. The winds and associated blowing snow will diminish late
this morning. We will see some chances for snow continuing today,
mainly along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. A system
pushing in from the south will bring chances for snowfall to the
eastern Brooks Range and the eastern Arctic Coast on Wednesday. A
cooling trend in temperatures is expected over the next few days
as a colder airmass moves in from the west. A strengthening area
of low pressure over northwestern Canada combined with high
pressure building over the Arctic Plain will lead to strong
westerly winds developing along the eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday
evening. These winds will likely cause reductions in visibiltiy
due to blowing snow that will continue into Thursday afternoon.
Gusty northerly gap winds are expected to develop on Wednesday in
the Brooks Range as well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
The extended period beginning on Friday starts off with a cold
airmass in place over much of the area. A front will bring strong
winds and snow to the west coast Friday into Saturday. A ridge
will push eastward for the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ245. &&

MAR 21