Brisk Wind Advisory 98, NWS Fairbanks, AK

716 
FZAK51 PAFG 091338
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
438 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-100315-
438 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 972 mb low 300 nm NW of Wrangel Island and will move northwest.
The associated weather front that lies over Utqiagvik will move 
east today. A second weather front over the Central Bering Sea 
will move east to along the West Coast of Alaska tonight, and 
then to Point Barrow south by 3pm Wed.

$$

PKZ225-100315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
438 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...SE winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-100315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
438 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt becoming W. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-100315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
438 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt becoming S. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-100315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
438 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-100315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
438 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt becoming W 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

593 
FZAK51 PAFG 100016
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-101530-
316 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1004 mb low 100 NM north of Utqiagvik will move north tonight. A
weather front stretching from that low to Barter Island will move
north this evening. A 1006 mb low 60 NM west of Point Hope will
move to 100 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1001 mb low by 3am Wed,
then continue moving north. A weather front stretching from this
second low south to St Lawrence Island will move to Wainwright to
the Yukon Delta by 3am Wed, then move east to the ALCAN Border by
Wed night. A 1005 mb low will develop near Inuvik Wed night and
then move east on Thu. 

$$

PKZ225-101530-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
316 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 35 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-101530-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
316 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt becoming W. Blowing snow. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-101530-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
316 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt becoming SE. Blowing snow. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-101530-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
316 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-101530-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
316 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

872 
FZAK51 PAFG 101256
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-110315-
356 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1001 mb low 100 NM northwest of Utqiagvik will move north today.
A weather front stretching from this low to the Yukon Delta will 
move east to the ALCAN Border by tonight. A 1005 mb low will 
develop near Inuvik tonight and then move east on Thu.

$$

PKZ225-110315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
356 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SE winds 40 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-110315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
356 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-110315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
356 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-110315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
356 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt becoming NW. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-110315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
356 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
421 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

SYNOPSIS...Blizzard or near Blizzard conditions continue this
morning over most of the West Coast and Northwest Arctic Coast.
Winds gusting as high as 85 mph have been recorded. Conditions
will be improving today across the area as the the front moves
inland and into the Central Arctic and weakens. A low developing
along the front will enhance the snowfall today from the Nulato
Hills north. Stratus in the Interior will dissipate this morning
with partly cloudy skies over the Eastern 1/3 of the state, but
the front out west will slowly move across the state as it
weakens spreading snow into the Central Interior Tuesday and
Wednesday.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Run to run continuity continues to be good in the
08/00Z solutions. This is a trend that we have been seeing since
late last week. Surface solutions and the 07/06Z analysis are also
in good agreement with location of the major features, but the
analysis indicates the primary low to the west is 1 to 3 mb deeper
and that supports the winds being 3 to 7 kts stronger that what
solutions are producing. Precipitation amounts and timing are
similar so will us a general blend of the solutions again today.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging has build north over the central part
of the state and lies over Kodiak Island to Tanana then north
over 150W this morning with 530 dam heights pushing north over the
Central Arctic. The ridge will slide east to be over the AlCan
Border and Beaufort Sea Tuesday morning, and will continue to
slide east. Broad troughing to the west is anchored by a 480 dam
low that is over the Siberian Coast 250 nm west of Wrangel Island
this morning. A second 480 dam low has developed and moved just
north the Kamchatka Peninsula. A strong shortwave is swinging
around the low and is over the Dateline this morning. The
shortwave will move to the Bering Strait this afternoon and over
the Central Arctic and Western Interior Tuesday morning. As the
wave weakens, a second wave will move to the Dateline Tuesday
morning as the low that was north of Kamchatka moves to 100 nm
south of Wrangel Island. The waves will move northeast and
continue to weaken as they push into the ridge. At 850 hpa...A
strong push of warm air in advance of the front has temperatures
rising to around 0C as far north as the Arctic Coast today and
tonight. The warm air will slowly moderate as the system slide
east and pushes into ridging. A strong push of cold air over the
Arctic will move over the West Coast and Arctic Wednesday night
with the -20C isotherm lying from Deadhorse to Dillingham, then
northwest over St Matthew Island Wednesday night. By Thursday
evening the -20C will lie from the AlCan Border crossing to King
Salmon to the Bering Strait with temperatures around -25C over the
Interior.

Surface...Primary low associated with the strong front
approaching the West Coast is 200 nm northwest of Wrangel Island.
A secondary low is moving along the front and is moving into the
Chukchi Sea this morning. Leeside troughing has developed north of
the ranges and will persist into Tuesday morning. High pressure
is holding on over the Eastern Interior with a 1030 mb high in the
Copper River Basin, a 1033 mb high just east of Eagle, and a 1029
mb high in the Upper Yukon Flats. Monday afternoon the front will
lie from Bristol Bay to Point Lay as it weakens and the primary
low moves to 200 nm east of the New Siberian Islands. High
pressure will persist over the Eastern Interior and Beaufort Sea
with a tight pressure gradient across the Arctic. Tight pressure
gradients will also persist across the ranges as the leeside
troughing persists. A 995 mb low along the front will move over
the Seward Peninsula, then northeast across Kotzebue Sound as the
front drags east and north into the Arctic.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The front will continue to slide
east today with winds diminishing on the Northwest Coast this
afternoon, and over the remainder of the coast by Tuesday morning.
Winds will remain strong and gusty in the Eastern Brooks Range
through Tuesday morning before diminishing. Snow along with
Blowing and Drifting snow will hamper travel in the area today.
Snowfall of 1 to 4 inches expected today and tonight with the
heaviest amounts in the Brooks Range. Temperatures warmer today,
but will start cooling from the west Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...Blizzard and Winter Storm
warnings continue in all the coastal areas and some Interior
locations with Winter Weather Advisories for most of the remainder
of the area. Conditions will be improving today along the coast,
and tonight in the Interior. Winds will remain strong this morning
with many areas seeing winds gusting to 50 mph, but winds will
diminish this afternoon and overnight. Snow along with blowing and
drifting snow will reduce visibility to near zero at times making
travel extremely difficult today with improving conditions
Tuesday. Snowfall amounts will range up to 12 inches with the
heaviest amounts along the Western Brooks Range and in the
mountains on the Seward Peninsula. Snow will be tapering off this
evening. Temperatures warmer today, then cooling tonight and
Tuesday as cold air wraps around the low into the area.

Central and Eastern Interior...Stratus continues to hang on over
the Central Interior and Upper Tanana Valley this morning with
some flurries. Stratus will be clearing out early this morning
with mainly high clouds over the area today and tonight.
Temperatures will be on the warm side as highs push into the 20s
and lower 30s, and may even near 40 down by the Denali Park
entrance with the strong south winds through the passes. Winds
generally light and variable, but they will be increasing today
in the Alaska range with south winds gusting around 55 mph near
the passes. The front to the west will eventually spread some
snow into the Interior Tuesday afternoon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...High pressure continues to
build over mainland Alaska through Friday, then slowly slides
east as a weather front moves to the West Coast Friday night. As
the high pressure builds over the area cold air will push
southeast across the state with temperatures cooling through
Saturday before they rebound. Temperatures will be 10 to 15
degrees below climatological normals as they fall into the teens
and 20s below late this week, while highs highs will range from
around 10 below to 10 above. Temperatures start warming by late
Saturday back toward climatological normals.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ212-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAR 21