Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

203 
WWAK42 PAFG 301829
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
929 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

AKZ207-301930-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210130T1900Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
929 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ208-310100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210131T0100Z/
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, and Red Dog Mine
929 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 50 below occuring. The cold 
  wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to 
  exposed skin.

* WHERE...Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys.

* WHEN...Now to 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northeast winds 15 mph are blowing in 
  some areas causing very cold wind chills. Conditions are 
  expected to become less severe late Saturday afternoon as 
  winds decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ210-310100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210131T0100Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
929 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed 
  skin. Expect wind chills as cold as 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula.

* WHEN...Now to 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills to 40 below can 
  cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. 
  Conditions are expected to become less severe late Saturday 
  afternoon as winds decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ217-310100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210131T0100Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
929 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 50 below occuring. The cold 
  wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to 
  exposed skin.

* WHERE...Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys from Ambler north.

* WHEN...Now to 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northeast winds 15 mph are blowing in 
  some areas causing very cold wind chills. Conditions are 
  expected to become less severe late Saturday afternoon as 
  winds decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ213-310230-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0003.210131T1500Z-210201T1500Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
929 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Travel could be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of up to 
  three inches are possible.

* WHERE...St Lawrence Island.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 60 mph could 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions means there is a
potential for falling and/or blowing snow with strong winds and
extremely poor visibilities. This can lead to whiteout conditions
and make travel very difficult.

$$

013 
WWAK42 PAFG 302300
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021
 
AKZ210-311500-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210131T0100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.Y.0009.210131T2100Z-210202T1800Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
200 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills as
  cold as 55 below zero. The cold wind chills will cause 
  frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
 
* WHERE...Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula.

* WHEN...Noon Sunday to 9 AM Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ208-217-310000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210131T0100Z/
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, Shungnak, 
and Kobuk
200 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ213-311500-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0003.210131T1500Z-210201T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0006.210131T1500Z-210201T1500Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
200 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of up to 
  three inches expected. 

* WHERE...St Lawrence Island.

* WHEN...6 AM Sunday to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely. Cold wind chills as low as 45 
  below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to 
  exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

$$

AKZ207-311500-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.Y.0009.210131T1800Z-210202T1800Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
200 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills as
  cold as 55 below zero. The cold wind chills will cause 
  frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
 
* WHERE...Chukchi Sea Coast.

* WHEN...9 AM Sunday to 9 AM Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ209-311500-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.Y.0009.210131T2100Z-210202T1800Z/
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Including Kotzebue, Selawik, and Noorvik
200 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills as
  cold as 55 below zero. The cold wind chills will cause 
  frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. 

* WHERE...Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley.

* WHEN...Noon Sunday to 9 AM Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Blowing snow will continue to be a concern tonight for the Bering
Strait coast. Elsewhere, a front will bring light snow as it
pushes east across the Interior and eastern Arctic Coast tonight
into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 12Z model suite generally initialized well when compared to
observations. The models are in decent agreement out through the
short term; however, there are still some subtle differences in
placement of precipitation and the strength of the upper level low
diving south into the Interior on Sunday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough currently stretches from a 504 dam low
over the western Arctic southward over the western Interior while
a ridge is in place over the central Bering Sea. The ridge will
move over the west coast Saturday night as the low in the Arctic
dives south into the eastern Interior. This will cause H850
temperatures to drop to close to -30C over much the Central and
Eastern Interior Sunday night and Monday. The GFS is little bit more
aggressive at bringing in the cold air when compared to the other
operational models. The ECMWF also ejects the low east into the
Yukon a bit quicker than the GFS.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front will bring snow as it moves east over the area late
tonight into Saturday night. This system will bring up to an inch
of snow in the southern Interior, with areas along and north of
the Yukon River seeing up to two inches. The best chance for
snowfall in Fairbanks with this system will be on Saturday
afternoon. With the low diving to the south on Sunday, we expect
colder temperatures for Sunday night; however, cloud cover will
make the temperature forecast tricky. Right now we expect areas
east of Fairbanks to be cloudy Sunday night. We warmed up the
inherited forecast a bit for Sunday night for areas east of
Fairbanks to account for the cloud cover. Areas to the west of
Fairbanks will see less cloud cover Sunday night, so low
temperatures will be near 30 below at valley level. Fairbanks will
be right on the edge of the cloud cover on Sunday night. Monday
night, the coldest temps look to be in areas east of Fairbanks as
the low moves into the Yukon Territory, with many valley
locations east of Fairbanks seeing temperatures near 30 below.
Wind chill values values will approach advisory levels Sunday and
Monday nights over summits.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Gusty northerly winds will continue tonight across the southern
Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait causing blowing snow. A
Blizzard Warning is out for the Bering Strait for tonight, while
the southern Chukchi Sea coast has a Winter Weather Advisory. With
the winds many spots in the northwest Arctic will see wind chill
values approaching -40 tonight. Light snow will continue this
evening in the western Interior before pushing east late tonight.
Less than an inch of additional snow is expected this evening.
Colder temperatures area expected for the western Interior
Saturday night and Sunday. Low temperatures for Saturday and
Sunday nights will approach -30 for many valley locations in the
western Interior. Easterly winds will pick pick up Sunday night
along the west coast and will persist through Monday. When this
happens, we anticipate some issues with very cold wind chill
values along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cold temperatures will persist tonight through the weekend. Lows
will be in the 30s below on the Arctic Plain tonight through
Sunday night. Areas along the coast will see lows near 20 below
tonight and Saturday night. Sunday night lows along the coast will
approach 30 below east of Utqiagvik. Winds will generally be under
15 mph tonight through Sunday. Winds along the western Arctic
Coast will pick up Sunday night. Areas east of Utqiagvik will see
light snow Saturday and Saturday night as a front moves east.
Snow amounts with this system will generally be under one inch.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
On Tuesday, the flow aloft over northern Alaska will become more
westerly. This will help to make the pattern a little bit more
active. Several system look to push from west to east across the
forecast area from Wednesday of next week into next next weekend.
The models all show a progressive pattern during this time
period; however, they differ on when the systems will move
through the area and how much snow they will bring.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ210.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JAN 21