Gale Warning 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

417 
FZAK52 PAFG 310023
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-311515-
323 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will strengthen over the Chukchi Sea through Mon. A
strong low will move N into the southwest Bering Sea on Sun as 
its associated front moves north across the Bering Sea tonight 
and Sun.

$$

PKZ200-311515-
Norton Sound-
323 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-311515-
Dall Point to Wales-
323 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. 
.THU...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-311515-
Kotzebue Sound-
323 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 5 kt becoming N. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-311515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
323 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

644 
FZAK52 PAFG 311233
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010315-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will strengthen over the Chukchi Sea through Tue. A
strong low will move N into the southwest Bering Sea on Sun as 
its associated front moves north across the Bering Sea tonight and
Sun.

$$

PKZ200-010315-
Norton Sound-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-010315-
Dall Point to Wales-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-010315-
Kotzebue Sound-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-010315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
333 AM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Blowing snow will continue to be a concern tonight for the Bering
Strait coast. Elsewhere, a front will bring light snow as it
pushes east across the Interior and eastern Arctic Coast tonight
into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 12Z model suite generally initialized well when compared to
observations. The models are in decent agreement out through the
short term; however, there are still some subtle differences in
placement of precipitation and the strength of the upper level low
diving south into the Interior on Sunday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough currently stretches from a 504 dam low
over the western Arctic southward over the western Interior while
a ridge is in place over the central Bering Sea. The ridge will
move over the west coast Saturday night as the low in the Arctic
dives south into the eastern Interior. This will cause H850
temperatures to drop to close to -30C over much the Central and
Eastern Interior Sunday night and Monday. The GFS is little bit more
aggressive at bringing in the cold air when compared to the other
operational models. The ECMWF also ejects the low east into the
Yukon a bit quicker than the GFS.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front will bring snow as it moves east over the area late
tonight into Saturday night. This system will bring up to an inch
of snow in the southern Interior, with areas along and north of
the Yukon River seeing up to two inches. The best chance for
snowfall in Fairbanks with this system will be on Saturday
afternoon. With the low diving to the south on Sunday, we expect
colder temperatures for Sunday night; however, cloud cover will
make the temperature forecast tricky. Right now we expect areas
east of Fairbanks to be cloudy Sunday night. We warmed up the
inherited forecast a bit for Sunday night for areas east of
Fairbanks to account for the cloud cover. Areas to the west of
Fairbanks will see less cloud cover Sunday night, so low
temperatures will be near 30 below at valley level. Fairbanks will
be right on the edge of the cloud cover on Sunday night. Monday
night, the coldest temps look to be in areas east of Fairbanks as
the low moves into the Yukon Territory, with many valley
locations east of Fairbanks seeing temperatures near 30 below.
Wind chill values values will approach advisory levels Sunday and
Monday nights over summits.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Gusty northerly winds will continue tonight across the southern
Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait causing blowing snow. A
Blizzard Warning is out for the Bering Strait for tonight, while
the southern Chukchi Sea coast has a Winter Weather Advisory. With
the winds many spots in the northwest Arctic will see wind chill
values approaching -40 tonight. Light snow will continue this
evening in the western Interior before pushing east late tonight.
Less than an inch of additional snow is expected this evening.
Colder temperatures area expected for the western Interior
Saturday night and Sunday. Low temperatures for Saturday and
Sunday nights will approach -30 for many valley locations in the
western Interior. Easterly winds will pick pick up Sunday night
along the west coast and will persist through Monday. When this
happens, we anticipate some issues with very cold wind chill
values along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cold temperatures will persist tonight through the weekend. Lows
will be in the 30s below on the Arctic Plain tonight through
Sunday night. Areas along the coast will see lows near 20 below
tonight and Saturday night. Sunday night lows along the coast will
approach 30 below east of Utqiagvik. Winds will generally be under
15 mph tonight through Sunday. Winds along the western Arctic
Coast will pick up Sunday night. Areas east of Utqiagvik will see
light snow Saturday and Saturday night as a front moves east.
Snow amounts with this system will generally be under one inch.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
On Tuesday, the flow aloft over northern Alaska will become more
westerly. This will help to make the pattern a little bit more
active. Several system look to push from west to east across the
forecast area from Wednesday of next week into next next weekend.
The models all show a progressive pattern during this time
period; however, they differ on when the systems will move
through the area and how much snow they will bring.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ210.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JAN 21