Winter Storm Watch 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
554 AM AKST Fri Dec 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather period for the next week as a number of fronts
impact the West Coast before moving inland. Heavy snow, gusty
winds, blowing snow, reduced visibility, and the possibility for
mixed precipitation and coastal flooding are all things to expect
in the coming week. Temperatures will be continually climbing
through Monday before cooling down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft...
Models still in good agreement with the dynamic upper level
pattern. Models are even strongly agreeing on a ridge that will
build north from the Pacific on Sunday. A weaker ridge is building
in today followed by a shortwave trough that will be over the
West Coast this evening. Once that is through moving east across
the state, that is when the strong ridge will build in.

Surface...
Like they have been the past couple of days, models at the surface
in good agreement until the stronger low pressure system enters
the picture Saturday as it tracks across far western Russia. It's
speed, track, and strength become more less defined with each
step into the later forecast period. The GFS is still exhibiting
run to run inconsistency.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow this morning will taper off into today with an
additional 1 to 2 inches or so. There will be a break tonight
before another system tracking from the west brings more snow to
the Interior on Saturday, with the greatest amounts west of
Fairbanks. Fairbanks can expect another inch with this system.
Then that will shift to the eastern Interior by late Saturday.
Flurries may linger before the next, and what is forecast to be an
even heavier snowfall event, will enter the region early Sunday.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with how much will fall.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The next system arrives this morning with gusty winds from
Kotzebue Sound and south. Up to 4 inches of snow expected south of
the Seward Peninsula with as high as 7 inches for the Nulato
Hills. Conditions will lighten up overnight tonight until the next
system arrives at St Lawrence Island and the Y-K Delta on
Saturday. We can expect strong winds across the water and along
the coast, very heavy snowfall with up to a foot or more for
higher terrain, and the possibility of coastal flooding and mixed
or freezing precipitation. And with that, temperatures will be
warming significantly into the 30's above Sunday and Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The winds out of the east are continuing to come down. Fog, low
stratus, and flurries is what you can expect for the Arctic coast
the next couple of days. Southerly winds will continue gusting 25
to 30 mph in the Brooks Range passes through early Saturday.
Winds expected to increase and gust again starting late Saturday
and into Sunday. Highs for much of the area are forecast to reach
into the 20's above zero on Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
The storm late Saturday into Sunday with long fetch of
southwesterly winds, has the potential to bring some minor coastal
flooding to coasts prone to that direction of winds over the
water. This will continue to be monitored for any changes to the
forecast.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
The storm capable of bringing significant amounts of snow to the
Interior will be exiting the area Tuesday. Following that, a
decline in temperatures. Another storm will reach the West Coast
on Wednesday and possibly again on Christmas Day. This may bring
more snow to the Interior as these track inland.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ221.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

KS DEC 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1114 AM AKST Fri Dec 17 2021

AKZ211-212-214-181500-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-Yukon Delta-
Including Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins,
St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Mountain Village, Emmonak,
Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall,
Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
1114 AM AKST Fri Dec 17 2021

...Elevated water levels in Norton Sound Region...

A strong weather system moving to the West Coast will bring
elevated water levels to the coast Sunday night and Monday in the
Norton Sound Region.

Water levels are expected to be 3 to 6 feet above the normal high
tide line. Water levels will be similar to the system that brought
elevated water to the area a couple weeks ago. Water is expected
to push into the old runway at Golovin, and bring elevated water
levels to Kotlik. Water will also be pushed up on top of the ice
along the coast.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1127 AM AKST Fri Dec 17 2021

AKZ219>226-181500-
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1127 AM AKST Fri Dec 17 2021

...Significant Snowfall Possible Sunday night to Tuesday...

Heavy snowfall is possible Sunday night into Tuesday across the
Central and Eastern Interior, including Fairbanks. Snowfall
amounts of 6 to 12 inches will be possible over the two days.

This weather system will also bring some warmer air into the area
and the potential for some freezing rain, especially southwest of
Fairbanks. Strong gusty winds are also possible, especially near
the Alaska Range and over summits north of Fairbanks.

There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the exact details
of this system, so we will be closely watching as this system
develops.

This system may impact travel across the area to start the week.

For the latest informations go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.