Winter Storm Watch 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

317 
WWAK43 PAFG 200409
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
809 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

AKZ223-201700-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0015.210920T2000Z-210922T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
809 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO
10 PM AKDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches expected southeast of
  Delta Junction, with 2 to 4 inches of snow from Delta Junction
  west. 

* WHERE...Southeast of Delta Junction.

* WHEN...Noon Monday to 10 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times. Areas northwest of Delta Junction will 
  see significantly less snowfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. This will make travel very difficult or
impossible. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling
5 1 1.

$$

AKZ226-201700-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0015.210920T2000Z-210922T0900Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
809 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO
1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, 
  with localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Noon Monday to 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...North winds gusting as high as 40 mph 
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are expected. This will make travel
very difficult or impossible. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ218-201400-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-210920T1400Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, 
and Iniakuk Lake
809 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized 
  amounts up to 5 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Southeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause travel difficulties. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ219-200800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-210920T0800Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain, 
and Gobblers Knob
809 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
  Additional snow accumulations of 1 to two inches. 

* WHERE...Along the Dalton Highway.

* WHEN...Until midnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause travel difficulties. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ224-201700-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0018.210921T0000Z-210922T1800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
809 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, are 
  possible.

* WHERE...Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

$$

505 
WWAK43 PAFG 200748
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1148 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

AKZ219-200900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-210920T0800Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain, 
and Gobblers Knob
1148 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow has either tapered off or ended.

$$

AKZ218-200900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-210920T1400Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, 
and Iniakuk Lake
1148 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow has either tapered off or ended.

$$

AKZ223-201700-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0015.210920T2000Z-210922T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
1148 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO
10 PM AKDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches 
  expected southeast of Delta Junction, with 2 to 4 inches of 
  snow from Delta Junction west.

* WHERE...Southeast of Delta Junction.

* WHEN...Noon Monday to 10 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times. Areas northwest of Delta Junction will 
  see significantly less snowfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. This will make travel very difficult or
impossible. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling
5 1 1.

$$

AKZ226-201700-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0015.210920T2000Z-210922T0900Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1148 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO
1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, 
  with localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Noon Monday to 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...North winds gusting as high as 40 mph 
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are expected. This will make travel
very difficult or impossible. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ224-201700-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0018.210921T0000Z-210922T1800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
1148 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, are 
  possible.

* WHERE...Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

$$

483 
WWAK43 PAFG 201254
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
454 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

AKZ224-210330-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0018.210921T0000Z-210922T1800Z/
/O.EXB.PAFG.WS.W.0015.210921T0200Z-210922T2100Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
454 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country.

* WHEN...6 PM today to 1 PM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...North winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow over the higher terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. This will make travel very difficult or
impossible. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling
5 1 1.

$$

AKZ223-210330-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0015.210920T2000Z-210922T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
454 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
10 PM AKDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches expected southeast of
  Delta Junction, with 2 to 4 inches of snow from Delta Junction 
  west.

* WHERE...Southeast of Delta Junction.

* WHEN...Noon Monday to 10 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times. Areas northwest of Delta Junction will 
  see significantly less snowfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. This will make travel very difficult or
impossible. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling
5 1 1.

$$

AKZ226-210330-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0015.210920T2000Z-210922T0900Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
454 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM
AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, 
  with localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Noon Monday to 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...North winds gusting as high as 50 mph 
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are expected. This will make travel
very difficult or impossible. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ225-210330-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0088.210920T1400Z-210921T1500Z/
Denali-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
454 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Denali.

* WHEN...6 AM today to 7 AM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
249 AM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter decided to replace autumn in Alaska, as snow squalls are
already impacting the Arctic Coast, and a winter storm is looking
to impact the Gulf Coast to the Eastern AK Range over the next few
days, including parts of Fortymile Uplands. Snow will be possible
over pretty much the entire Interior as the cold front from the
arctic shifts southeast. Yet another potential winter storm is
shaping up possibly for the end of week, as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A "multi-spoked" 507 dam 500 hpa arctic trough is anchoring the
flow pattern over the Arctic Coast, which it has been doing for
several weeks now since the beginning of August. There is a
wrapped up cold air occlusion clearly visible on satellite
imagery, currently located off the coast northwest of Utqiagvik.
A front at the base of the larger arctic trough is moving east
across the Western Brooks Range and Upper Koyukuk, bringing a
current mix of rain and snow. Onshore flow is bringing light rain
to the remainder of the West Coast. There is an occluded low
across the North Pacific shifting northeast, and this will be a
big player in the possible heavier snow for the Eastern AK Range
and Fortymile the next few days.

Model Discussion...
The models are now in very good agreement with the general
synoptic pattern through Tuesday as a Gulf low phases with an
arctic trough digging south across the Interior. There remains
subtle differences between the models once the Gulf Low phases
Monday night, with the general consensus being a bit less
moisture than what some of the more aggressive models were showing
the last 48 hours. With that said, it looks high confidence for
several inches of snow over a long duration across parts of the
Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A second arctic front is currently stalled over the Upper Koyukuk
Valley and lower Tanana Valley. This will remain in place as the
low shifts northeast, with a mix of rain and snow, except higher
elevation heavier snow along the Dalton Highway north of the Yukon
River. That front will begin to shift southeast, bringing an end
to accumulating snow along the Dalton as the front moves into the
White Mountains and Tanana Valley, including Fairbanks. A mix of
rain/snow may briefly turn to all snow with accumulations
possible, although the movement of the front from the northwest
will likely bring lesser amounts to Fairbanks proper, although
there is a possibility of heavier band of snow towards Eielson
to Salcha. Accumulating snow of 2-3" is expected across the
Alaska Range Monday, with another potential 3-6" for the Eastern
Alaska Range as the Gulf low shifts northeast Tuesday and Tuesday
night. In addition, expect strong north winds through Isabel Pass
which may result in significant visibility reductions from Trims
Camp south. Areas from Delta Junction to the Fortymile should
expect the potential for 2-6" over a couple days from Monday
through Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A cold front is shifting southeast across the Seward Peninsula,
with rain and snow showers to the north where there is stronger
northwest winds. This pattern does not change over the next few
days as northwest winds 15-30 mph will continue to batter the
Chukchi Coast. Higher surf will also batter the northern Seward
Peninsula and into Norton Sound. Northwest winds diminish Tuesday
night. Snow accumulations will be light along the immediate coast
given the still rather warm SSTs, with the better chances for
accumulating snow over Interior Seward Peninsula and the higher
elevations of the Selawik Peninsula to the Lisburne Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
West to northwest winds of 15-30 mph will continue to batter the
western Arctic Coast from Point Barrow west, with snow
squalls/blowing snow and rough surf up to 1 ft above the normal
high tide line. Farther east, a cold front is tracking east,
bringing snow to the Coast and Brooks Range, with this front
expected to bring heavier accumulating snow to the Brooks Range
including Atigun Pass, which will impact travel through today.
Southwest winds will be blustery over the east Arctic behind the
front, but the flow will be downslope enough that it will be much
drier than over the west Arctic.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Pattern looks very active in terms of wintery weather as a cold
arctic trough remains entrenched and the North Pacific train of
lows shifts through the Gulf after this first early week storm
exits into the Yukon Wednesday. The next possible winter storm
moves in late week and early weekend with the possibility of
several inches of snow over some parts of the Interior and AK
Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

AHSENMACHER SEP 21