Small Craft Advisory 131, NWS Fairbanks, AK

980 
FZAK52 PAFG 192212
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-201430-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 MB low 75 nm NNW of Utqiagvik will move E to 120 nm N of 
Prudhoe Bay at 993 MB Mon morning, then N to 350 nm N of Prudhoe
Bay at 995 MB Tue morning. Ridging will move into the Central 
Bering this afternoon into Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-201430-
Norton Sound-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-201430-
Dall Point to Wales-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-201430-
Kotzebue Sound-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-201430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
212 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

140 
FZAK52 PAFG 201206
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-210215-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB low 75 nm N of Utqiagvik will move to 120 nm N of 
Prudhoe Bay at 996 MB Mon afternoon, then move into the high 
arctic and weaken through Tue night. A 1015 mb low will cross 
Saint Lawrence Island from the Gulf of Anadyr Tue then move to the
YK Delta at 1007 mb Tue night, then move south into Bristol Bay 
by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-210215-
Norton Sound-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-210215-
Dall Point to Wales-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-210215-
Kotzebue Sound-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-210215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
406 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

301 
FZAK52 PAFG 202245
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-211430-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 MB low 120 nm N of Prudhoe Bay will move into the high 
arctic and weaken through Tue night. High extending from the 
Bering Strait to the Yukon Delta will weaken this evening. A 1013 
mb low will cross Saint Lawrence Island from the Gulf of Anadyr 
late tonight, then move to the YK Delta at 1007 mb Tue night, then
move south into Bristol Bay by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-211430-
Norton Sound-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-211430-
Dall Point to Wales-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-211430-
Kotzebue Sound-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-211430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
245 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

479 
FZAK52 PAFG 211149
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-220215-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1012 mb low over Saint Lawrence Island this morning will move 
to the YK Delta at 1007 mb this afternoon, then move south into 
Bristol Bay by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-220215-
Norton Sound-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-220215-
Dall Point to Wales-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt N of Saint Lawrence Island. SW winds 25 kt
S of Saint Lawrence Island becoming N 30 kt in the late afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-220215-
Kotzebue Sound-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-220215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
232 PM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather will continue as a stacked low will develop and
sit quasi-stationary near Utqiagvik, bringing a transition to
more winter-like weather across Northern Alaska this weekend into
early next week. This low will be the main driving force for
weather conditions in the short term, sending a series of cold
fronts that will sweep west to east across the Interior, the first
one today and a stronger one on Monday. These fronts will not
only allow colder temperatures to funnel into the Interior, they
will also increase chances of snow across the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The upper level pattern is dominated by a 509 dam low near
Wrangel Island, sending a longwave trough over Northern Alaska. The
associated low at the surface is sending a cold front through the
Central Interior today and into the Eastern Interior by Sunday
morning. This upper low will be the main focal point over the next
several days as it drifts southeast to near Utqiagvik as a 508
dam low Sunday morning, sending another front into the Northwest
Coast and then southeast through the Interior on Monday. As this
front approaches the Eastern Interior Monday afternoon, it will
interact with a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska, producing
widespread precipitation into Tuesday.

Overall, the models initialized well with the aforementioned
features and are in general good agreement on how they will
evolve into Monday. We made minor changes to the inherited grids,
with the biggest changes to the the winds, leaning with the GFS,
and the POPs, bumping them up with the SREF.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A surface low will move to near Utqiagvik this evening, which
will bring increased northwesterly winds, creating a strong
onshore flow with gusts to 40 mph through Monday. As this
northwest flow develops, a prolong period of snow showers in
Northwest Alaska and the Northwest Brooks Range will occur into
early next week. Snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches expected
along the Chukchi Sea Coast, with amounts to around 12 inches in
the Western Brooks Range through Monday night. For areas to the
east, over the Central and Eastern Brooks, 2 to 5 inches of snow
is possible, including portions of the Dalton Highway through
Atigun Pass. Temperatures trending downward as the low offshore of
Utqiagvik filters in colder temperatures into the middle of next
week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Precipitation chances today will be confined to northern portions
of the region, primarily north of the Seward Peninsula through
tonight. A second push of moisture will drop south with a cold
front into southern portions of the region Sunday. Any snow that
will fall will be primarily light, with larger amounts along the
foothills of the Brooks Range, north of Ambler, where snow
amounts up to 6 inches are possible. Strong northwest winds will
develop this evening, with gusts 30 to 40 mph by Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning along the northern coast of the
Seward Peninsula. Otherwise, with the passage of a cold front
Sunday afternoon, expect temperatures to continue to cool to below
normal by Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A cold front will sweep across the region today, this will be
followed by another, stronger cold front Sunday into Monday,
bringing much colder temperatures across the Central and Eastern
Interior. This first front today will bring primarily rain, with
snow in higher elevations of the Alaska Range and Southeastern
Brooks Range. The second cold front will begin to push in from the
west tonight, bringing widespread snow all the way to valley
level in spots of the Interior through Monday morning. Heavier
snow will remain to the north along the Dalton Highway, where
Winter Weather Advisories will continue for snow, with
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Areas south and east of this area
will see anywhere from a dusting up to one inch, primarily above
1000 feet. As this cold front moves into the Upper Tanana Valley
and Fortymile Country late Monday, it will phase with moisture
surging north from a low in the Gulf of Alaska, this may bring a
wide area of substantial snowfall for this region.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
Elevated surf of 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line is
expected for coastal communities along the Chukchi Sea and
Kotzebue Sound Coasts Sunday afternoon into Monday morning as
strong northwest winds develop Sunday morning.

Extended Forecast Days 4 through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Tuesday, a trough aloft will
will persist over Northern Alaska through Friday, allowing
unsettled conditions to remain over portions of the North Slope
and Eastern Interior. Focus in the extended will be on a front
sweeping west to east across the Interior Monday, reaching the
Eastern Interior Tuesday. This coupled with moisture moving north
into the Upper Tanan Valley and Fortymile Country from a low in
the Gulf of Alaska, may bring the first widespread substantial
snowfall event across to this region Tuesday and Wednesday. Stay
tuned to the forecast for the latest updates.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

RZ SEP 21