Small Craft Advisory 68, NWS Fairbanks, AK

771 
FZAK52 PAFG 021210
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-030215-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 mb low 200 nm W of St Matthew Island at 989 mb will move
into the Gulf of Anadyr tonight. Strong S flow across the area 
will slowly weaken Tue. A 992 mb low will move into the southern
Bering Sea Tue night. 

$$

PKZ200-030215-
Norton Sound-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-030215-
Dall Point to Wales-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-030215-
Kotzebue Sound-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-030215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

891 
FZAK52 PAFG 022236
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-031400-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 mb low near the Western Gulf of Anadyr will move NE as a
weather front lingers over the Northeast Bering Sea. High 
pressure will build SW over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait Tue 
afternoon and Wed. 

$$

PKZ200-031400-
Norton Sound-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-031400-
Dall Point to Wales-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-031400-
Kotzebue Sound-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-031400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

SDB Aug 21

504 
FZAK52 PAFG 031307
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
507 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-040215-
507 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low near the Gulf of Anadyr will move NE today into Russia. 
High pressure will build SW over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait
this afternoon and Wed. A low will move into the Southern Bering
Sea this afternoon and will be just west of St Matthew Island by
Wed morning at 992 mb. 

$$

PKZ200-040215-
Norton Sound-
507 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-040215-
Dall Point to Wales-
507 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-040215-
Kotzebue Sound-
507 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-040215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
507 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
600 AM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Wet weather will continue on Sunday across the West Coast and
Western Interior; however a pattern change is expected on Monday
as a strong upper level ridge builds from east to west across
area. This ridge will result in very warm temperatures this week
across the forecast area, with widespread temperatures in the 80s
expected across the Interior. High temperature records could be
in jeopardy early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 01/00 UTC models initialize well when compared to
observational data. The operational models are in good agreement
with the synoptic scale pattern out through much of the week. We
made only minor adjustments to the inherited forecast grids.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 543 dam low is currently in place over the
CHukchi Sea while a ridge stretches from the Yukon Territory into
the southeastern Interior. A 563 dam low is currently in the Gulf
of Alaska. The ridge will build west across Interior Alaska as
the low in the Chuckchi Sea moves off to the north and a 540 dam
low strengthens in the western Bering Sea. By Monday evening, a
581 dam high will be centered over the Central Interior. The ridge
will very slowly push to the northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday.
By Tuesday evening, the ridge will be centered over the western
Brooks Range and Wednesday evening it will be centered over the
Chukchi Sea Coast. The ridge will continue to push to the
north Thursday and Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Rainfall is expected today
northwest of Livengood. A ridge that is in place over the
southeastern Interior will slowly slide to the west today and
tonight. As this ridge build in, cloud cover will diminish and
precipitation will taper off. Additional rainfall amounts of a
tenth to half of an inch are expected over the northern Interior
today before rainfall tapers off, with locally higher amounts.
Highs today will be in the 80s from Fairbanks southeast, while
areas to the northwest of Fairbanks will be in the 60s and 70s
thanks to thicker cloud cover and rainfall. Widespread
temperatures in the 80s are expected for Monday and Tuesday. We
are currently forecasting a high of 86 degrees in Fairbanks on
Monday, which is a degree warmer than the high temperature record
for the date. A shortwave associated with a low in the Gulf of
ALaska will bring some showers along with isolated thunderstorms
to the southeastern Interior Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The
strong ridge will keep any thunderstorms south and east of Tok. On
Tuesday, cloud cover will increase a little bit during the day
over the eastern Interior, binging a decrease in temperatures
along the AlCan Border (although most places will remain in the
80s).

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front is currently bringing heavy rainfall to much of the
western Interior as well as the Yukon Delta and Lower Yukon
Valley. High pressure will build west today which will push the
heavy rainfall west over the coast tonight and Monday. The font
will move out over the ocean Monday night as the high pressure
continues to build over the area. As high pressure builds in, a
warming and drying trend is expected. With the rainfall today
temperatures will mostly be in the 50s near the coast and the 60s
to lower 70s inland. Temperatures will warm on Monday and by
Tuesday we anticipate highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weather front will bring heavy rainfall to the Brooks Range
today. This front will be pushed to the north tonight, with
rainfall expected over the coast late tonight and Monday. High
pressure will build over the Brooks Range Monday night and over
the coast on Tuesday. This will result in rainfall ending and
temperatures warming. The coast will see gusty southwesterly
winds at times today, with a 998 mb low in the Chukchi Sea just
off the coast of Wainwright. The low will weaken tonight resulting
in winds diminishing.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
The ridge looks to persist over northern Alaska into Thursday. A
trough associated with a low in the Bering Sea looks to bring
precipitation to the west coast Thursday night before pushing
east into the Interior on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rainfall is expected today north and west of Livengood.
High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions today for the
southeast Interior. We anticipate very warm and dry conditions
this week for much of the area as high pressure builds over the
forecast area. A weak weather system may bring some isolated
thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday to the far Southeastern
Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Runoff from the rains west and north of Fairbanks is bringing
water levels up on some of the mainstem rivers and we will
continue to watch them closely. Flood Advisory for Nome and Snake
Rivers continue through this morning with 1 to 1.5. Flood
Advisory also remains in effect for small streams and creeks
flowing out of the Central Brooks Range into the Koyukuk and Kobuk
Basins. The Kobuk is nearing bankfull at Ambler and Kiana and a
Flood Watch remains in effect for the Kiana area. The Koyukuk is
also rising pretty rapidly and will reach bankfull today with
potential for flooding, so we will be watching it closely as well
with storm total rainfall amounts of up to 5 inches. For the
latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for portions of AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219.

Flood Watch for AKZ208 and AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JUL 21