Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Fairbanks, AK

235 
FZAK52 PAFG 012119
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
119 PM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-021400-
119 PM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 mb low in the Central Bering Sea with a front extending
NE to Norton Sound will move to 200 nm W of St Matthew Island at
989 mb by Mon morning as the front moves N into the Chukchi Sea 
region. Monday afternoon the low will be 250 nm W of St Matthew
Island with the front extending N across the Gulf of Anadyr and
NE across the Chukchi Sea. Strong S flow across the area will 
slowly weaken Tue.

$$

PKZ200-021400-
Norton Sound-
119 PM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 
ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-021400-
Dall Point to Wales-
119 PM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-021400-
Kotzebue Sound-
119 PM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-021400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
119 PM AKDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

SDB Aug 21

771 
FZAK52 PAFG 021210
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-030215-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 mb low 200 nm W of St Matthew Island at 989 mb will move
into the Gulf of Anadyr tonight. Strong S flow across the area 
will slowly weaken Tue. A 992 mb low will move into the southern
Bering Sea Tue night. 

$$

PKZ200-030215-
Norton Sound-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-030215-
Dall Point to Wales-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-030215-
Kotzebue Sound-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-030215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
410 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

891 
FZAK52 PAFG 022236
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-031400-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 mb low near the Western Gulf of Anadyr will move NE as a
weather front lingers over the Northeast Bering Sea. High 
pressure will build SW over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait Tue 
afternoon and Wed. 

$$

PKZ200-031400-
Norton Sound-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-031400-
Dall Point to Wales-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-031400-
Kotzebue Sound-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-031400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
236 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

SDB Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
206 PM AKDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Rains continues from the West Coast to the Central
Brooks Range with rivers, streams, and creeks on the rise. Flood
Advisories are in effect as well as a Flood Watch for the Kobuk
River at Kiana. The Koyukuk and Kobuk Rivers are rising and may
reach bankfull Sunday. If you are on or near any of the waterways
stay alert to changing conditions. Norton Sound to Kotzebue Sound
along the coast will get a short reprieve from the rain this
afternoon and evening before another front moves up the coast
spreading rain across the area. Rainfall amounts through Sunday
will range from 0.5 to 5.0 inches. Heaviest rainfall along the
South slopes of the Brooks Range, and on the southern Seward
Peninsula. Showers will also continue across the Arctic with no
significant areas of rainfall. Southeast of Livengood warmer and
drier as high pressure pushes into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...31/12Z solutions are in good agreement through the
midrange and have come together in the extended periods. The
timing of the precipitation events is a little off as they move up
the West Coast, but it is manageable. No changes in the
precipitation output from the solutions, so will once again be
leaning quite a bit on the current forecast database, to maintain
continuity, and only blend a small amount of the current
solutions. Surface initialized well against local 31/15Z analysis
with no significant deviations.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing remains across the Northern
Arctic and over the Western Arctic and Dateline with a 538 dam low
over Point Hope, and a 539 dam low over the northwestern Chukchi
Sea. Ridging is pushing in over the Southeast Interior with a
skinny ridge extending southwest over Cook Inlet to Sand Point,
then south over the Pacific. A ridge axis also lie over Eagle to
Kaktovik and over the Central Arctic. A 563 dam low has move over
the Northeast Pacific and will wobble around about 300 nm south of
Yakutat through Tuesday. Sunday afternoon the lows that were in
the Chukchi Sea merge and a 546 dam low is 200 nm north of
Utqiagvik with troughing extending northeast into the Canadian
Archipelago, and southwest from the low to a 545 dam low over the
Central Bering Sea near the Dateline. Ridging that was pushing
into the Central Arctic flattens out and slides east, while
Ridging over the Southeast Interior pushes west and northwest with
580 dam heights pushing over the AlCan Border, and continues to
push southwest over Cook Inlet. Monday afternoon the ridging will
push all the way to the West Coast, with 577 dam heights over the
Western Interior, and over the Arctic Coast, with 573 dam heights
over the Coast. At 850 hpa...Warm air has pushed to the west with
the +10C isotherm from Old Crow YT to Livengood to Denali this
afternoon, and by Sunday afternoon from Old Crow YT to Tanana to
St Marys. A pool of cold air around 0C is wrapping around the low
to the northwest and will swing those temperatures over the
Northwest Arctic Coast and Chukchi Sea Sunday and Monday.

Surface...High pressure will continue to push into the Southeast
Interior and eventually across the forecast area. Strong low
moving up the West Coast is over Point Hope this afternoon with
troughing extending east over the Arctic Coast, and south over St
Lawrence Island, then southwest to a 1000 mb low near Kiska.
Associated front has pushed inland and is spreading rain from the
Lower Yukon Delta to the Central Brooks Range. By Sunday afternoon
high pressure will push west over the Western Interior and north
of the Koyukuk River Basin. Low pressure over the Arctic will
slide north of the coast as another front moves up the West Coast
in advance of a 994 mb low that will be in the Central Bering Sea.
That front will move north of the Seward Peninsula Sunday
afternoon, and northwest of the state by Monday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...No significant changes as cloudy
conditions prevail with showers and areas of fog. Inland downslope
off the Brooks Range will keep most areas dry, but cloudy. Highs
in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with lows in the 40s for most locations
along the coast. Warmer inland with highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Winds southeast 5 to 20 mph becoming southwest by Sunday
morning in most areas. Rain falling in the Brooks Range may bring
water levels up in some of the rivers draining to the north.

West Coast and Western Interior...Rain tapering off on the coast
for a few hours tonight, but more rain is on the way as a good
slug of moisture will push into the area overnight bringing 0.5
to 1.5 inches of rain to the area. Expect the Snake and Nome
Rivers to rise on Sunday back to bankfull. Flood Watches and
Advisories in effect for the area. With 1 to 5 inches of rain
still possible through Sunday we area also keeping a close watch
on the Kobuk River as it is nearing bankfull. Highs along the
coast mid 40s to mid 50s, while inland highs will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Lows will be in the 40s to mid 50s. Winds
southwest at 5 to 20 mph becoming northeast to southeast Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Heavy showers northwest of
Livengood will continue so Flood Advisory remains in effect for
the streams and creeks draining into the Koyukuk River Basin. The
Koyukuk River is rising rapidly, so we are keep a close watch on
it as it will get to bankfull Sunday. From Livengood southeast
warm and dry with those conditions spreading west and north
starting Monday. Winds southeast to southwest to 10 mph. High in
the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A return to summer like
weather and temperatures across the area with just a chance of
showers for the Lower Yukon Delta and the Eastern Arctic Coast.
Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s in the Interior.

&&

.Fire Weather...Interior locations southeast of Livengood will
continue to dry out with warmer temperatures, and the warmer and
drier conditions will be spreading west and north through the
middle of next week. Until then increasing Chances of Wetting
Rains from Livengood west and north as yet another front moves
through the area through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will
range from the 50s in the west to the 70s in the Southeast
Interior. Overnight lows generally in the 50s. Minimum Relative
Humidity will be lowest in the Upper Yukon Flats as it falls into
the mid 30s, and will range up to the mid 50s in the Middle Yukon
Valley. Winds southeast to southwest at 5 to 20 mph. Winds gusting
around 30 mph west of Tanana tonight. Relative Humidity recovery
will be good.

&&

.Hydrology...Runoff from the rains west and north of Fairbanks is
bringing water levels up on some of the mainstem rivers and we
will continue to watch them closely tonight and Sunday. Flood
Advisory for Nome and Snake Rivers continues into Sunday with 1 to
1.5 inches of rain expected through Sunday. Flood Advisory also
remains in effect foe small streams and creeks flowing out of the
Central Brooks Range into the Koyukuk and Kobuk Basins. The Kobuk
is nearing bankfull at Ambler and Kiana and a Flood Watch remains
in effect for the Kiana area. The Koyukuk is also rising pretty
rapidly and will reach bankfull Sunday with potential for
flooding, so we will be watching it closely as well with up to 5
inches of rain expected in the area tonight into Sunday. For the
latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Advisory for portions of AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219.

Flood Watch for a portion of AKZ208.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUL 21