Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

July 23, 2021

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Jul 23, 2021, 2:38 PM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 23, 2021, 2:38 PM AKDT (22:38 UTC)
Expired
Jul 25, 2021, 2:44 PM AKDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted.

769 
FZAK52 PAFG 232238
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-241415-
238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 mb low forming off of the Chukotsk Peninsula Sat morning 
will move near Cape Lisburne Sat night at 1004 mb. High pressure 
in the Bering Sea S of St Lawrence Island through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ200-241415-
Norton Sound-
238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-241415-
Dall Point to Wales-
238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-241415-
Kotzebue Sound-
238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-241415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21
4 follow-up statements
651 
FZAK52 PAFG 241211
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
411 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-250230-
411 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1006 mb low forming off of the Chukotsk Peninsula this morning 
will move 100 nm NW of Cape Lisburne Sat night at 1004 mb. A 1004
mb low developing in the Gulf of Anadyr Sat night will move SE 
near St Lawrence Island Sun morning.

$$

PKZ200-250230-
Norton Sound-
411 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-250230-
Dall Point to Wales-
411 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-250230-
Kotzebue Sound-
411 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-250230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
411 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

KS Jul 21
638 
FZAK52 PAFG 242241
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-251415-
241 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1006 mb low near the Chukotsk Peninsula will move 100 nm NW of 
Cape Lisburne tonight at 1004 mb then move into the Chukchi Sea
Sun and weaken. A 1004 mb low developing in the Gulf of Anadyr 
tonight will move SE near St Lawrence Island Sun morning.

$$

PKZ200-251415-
Norton Sound-
241 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-251415-
Dall Point to Wales-
241 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-251415-
Kotzebue Sound-
241 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-251415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
241 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21
524 
FZAK52 PAFG 251211
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
411 AM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-260230-
411 AM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1004 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move ESE near Wales Sun 
night as a 1006 mb low.

$$

PKZ200-260230-
Norton Sound-
411 AM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-260230-
Dall Point to Wales-
411 AM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-260230-
Kotzebue Sound-
411 AM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-260230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
411 AM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

KS Jul 21
891 
FZAK52 PAFG 252244
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-261800-
244 PM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1006 mb low over the Gulf of Anadyr will move onto the Seward
Peninsula tonight. High pressure will build over the Chukchi Sea
and Bering Strai Monday. A 983 mb low will move into the Gulf of
Anadyr Tuesday.

$$

PKZ200-261800-
Norton Sound-
244 PM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-261800-
Dall Point to Wales-
244 PM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-261800-
Kotzebue Sound-
244 PM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-261800-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
244 PM AKDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog,
rain.
.MON...N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 23, 6:05 AM AKDT, 8 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 6:05 AM AKDT, 8 hours 33 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
605 AM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread thunderstorms and showers east of the
Ruby from the Arctic Plains to the Alaska Range. Rainfall from
Fairbanks south and east through Saturday will range up the 2
inches. Stream in the Alaska Range and Fortymile Country may rise
to bankfull. Showers continue on the West Coast and in the Arctic
along with some isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures in the
Interior cooling and will be around 5 degrees cooler today and
another 5 degrees cooler Saturday as highs fall to the upper 60s
to upper 70s.&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...There is pretty good agreement today with the 23/00Z
solutions, they go sideways when they move into the midrange and
extended periods. Surface solutions are also in pretty good
agreement in the short term and initialized well. Convective
indicies support widespread isolated thunderstorms today in most
of the eastern half of the state with some scattered thunderstorms
in the Central and Eastern Interior east of Fort Yukon to the
White mountains and northwest of Chicken. Lifted indicies are in
the -1 to -5 range with CAPE values up to 1800 J/kg this
afternoon. Saturday models are being more aggressive with a front
moving across the Arctic and convective indicies are going up, so
will increase the thunderstorm coverage in the Plains and the
Eastern Brooks Range. Precipitation coverage today through
Saturday is still putting a bullseye over the Fortymile Country
and the Eastern Alaska Range with up to 2 inches of rain possible.
Not making very many changes to the current forecast database with
the exception of those mentioned above. The use of a general blend
including the current forecast should produce good continuity for
the short term forecast.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 566 dam high sits over the northeast corner
of the state with a 554 dam low over the Chukchi Sea with a trough
extending south over Kuskokwim Bay, and a 552 dam low 300 nm
south of Prince William Sound. This afternoon the high will be
over Chalkyitsik at 568 dam, the low to the west will move over
Point Hope with the trough extending south over Bethel, and the
low to the south will drift southwest to 200 nm southeast of
Kodiak City. Saturday morning the high will drift just east of
Chalkyitsik over the Yukon Territory while the low to the west
moves over Point Lay at 553 dam with a trough extending south over
Dillingham. The low to the south will continue to drift southwest
and will be 300 nm south southeast of Kodiak City. By Saturday
afternoon the high will drift south over Eagle at 568 dam with
ridging extending southwest over the Western Alaska Range, then
west to Nunivak Island, then southwest to a 595 dam high in the
North Pacific. The low to the west will move over the Arctic Plain
near Umiat at 555 dam with the trough extending south to
Allakaket, then southwest to McGrath. Troughing will also extend
northwest, then west from the low to a 546 dam low over Wrangel
Island. The low in the Northeast Pacific will move east to 400 nm
south of Cordova. At 850 hpa...A dome of temperatures +10C or
warmer remains over the northeast mainland under the high aloft,
while a pool of temperatures around 0C is over the Bering Strait
and southern Chuckchi Sea under the low. By Saturday afternoon
those temperatures moderate some as the low moves slowly to the
northeast. By Sunday morning temperatures over the state will
range from around +2C to +8C.

Surface...Troughing extends from the Upper Tanana Valley to the
Northern Chukchi Sea this morning with weak high pressure along
the south slopes of the Alaska Range. Low pressure associated with
a 1001 mb low is in the Gulf of Alaska, and high pressure is
pushing north over the Bering Sea out of the North Pacific with a
1019 mb high near St Matthew Island. Not much change by this
afternoon as the trough will remain across the state from the
Upper Tanana Valley to Point Lay, as a low near Eagle deepens to
1005 mb. The thermal trough will be northeast and east of
Fairbanks today moving into the Yukon Territory Saturday. The
trough across the state will slide north and east tonight to be
over the Plains and the Eastern Brooks Range, then lifts offshore
Saturday night as high pressure holds to the north over the
Arctic, and the high pressure over the Bering Sea pushes into the
Interior north of the Alaska Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and showers along the
coast with cloudy with showers and thunderstorms inland. As the
low in the Chukchi Sea moves east across the plains expect
increased thunderstorm activity Saturday from Umiat east. Highs in
the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the 40s for most locations
along the coast. Warmer inland with highs in the upper 50s and
60s. Winds along the coast northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph, while
inland and in the Brooks Range winds northeast 5 to 10 mph
becoming southwest.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers in the Chukchi Sea
region tapering off today as the low moves northeast and the
troughing moves east. High pressure builds north to the Bering
Strait and into the Western Interior tonight, then weakens as a
low moving out of Siberia moves across the Bering Strait pushing
the high pressure south. High temperatures along the coast mid
40s to mid 50s, while inland high temperatures will be in 60s.
Lows will be in the 40s to mid 50s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms
across the area today with rainfall amounts from Fairbanks east
and south ranging up to 2 inches through Saturday night. Some
stream and creeks may reach bankfull. Thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening will be scattered from east of Fort Yukon to the White
Mountains, and north east of Chicken. Winds generally light and
variable today around Fairbanks, while to the northeast of
Fairbanks winds will be northeast to 10 mph becoming southwest
overnight. Temperatures cooler with highs in the 70s, while lows
will be in the 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are literally going in
opposite directions, 23/00Z solutions, in the midrange and
extended periods. The ECMWF has fared a bit better of late, and
the GFS is the only outlier, so will lean toward the ECMWF and
Ensemble solutions. This will mean a change to southwest flow
across the area starting Tuesday as the ridging slides south of
the Alaska Range, with the flow turning a little more south the
remainder of the week. The southwest flow will bring precipitation
across the state Tuesday, then as the flow turns the
precipitation will remain west and north of Fairbanks.

&&

.Fire Weather...Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. Widespread
isolated thunderstorms and showers east of Ruby will extend from
the Eastern Arctic Plain south to the Alaska Range. Scattered
thunderstorms expected in the area just east of Fort Yukon to the
White Mountains, and northwest of Chicken. Temperatures around 5
degrees cooler today as they rise into the 70s to around 80, then
5 degrees cooler Saturday. Minimum Relative Humidity values will
be around 30 in the Upper Yukon Flats ranging into the 40s west to
the Middle Yukon Valley, then values 5 to 10 higher Saturday.
Winds variable to 10 mph today becoming southwest for most area
Saturday to 10 mph. Winds a bit stronger Saturday night in the
White Mountains as they range up to 15 mph and gusty. Relative
Humidity recovery will be good.

&&

.Hydrology...Heavy rain over the next couple days in the Central
and Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, and Brooks Range
with up to 2 inches of rain possible will lead to small stream
rising rapidly to bankfull with possible minor flooding. This
rainfall is not expected to impact the larger mainstem rivers as
they continue to run well below normal levels. For the latest
river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning for AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ224.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUL 21

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 11:00 AM AKDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1100 AM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

AKZ225-226-241500-
Denali-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, Kantishna,
Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp,
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1100 AM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...Heavy Rain Likely Over The Southeast Interior Tonight Through
Saturday...

Rain showers are expected over the southeast Interior from tonight
through Saturday. Between 0.50-1.50 inches of rain is expected
along the Alaska Range, including Isabel Pass and the Denali Park
area.

This could lead to small stream flooding along the Alaska Range
through Saturday. People in the Alaska Range this weekend should
be alert to the possibility of rising water on small streams.

AKZ220-222>224-241500-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Middle Tanana Valley-
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village,
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs,
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, and Boundary
1100 AM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall Likely This Afternoon
and Evening...

Thunderstorms are expected across the White Mountains, Fortymile
Uplands, and Tanana Valley including Fairbanks this afternoon and
evening. Some storms may be strong with frequent lightning, small
hail, and heavy downpours. By tonight, this will turn into a heavy
rainfall event with 0.5-1 inch expected through Saturday morning.
Rain will taper off by Saturday afternoon.
Special weather statement, Jul 23, 2:15 PM AKDT, 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

AKZ204-206-241500-
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Kaktovik, Flaxman Island, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass,
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
215 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall Possible Through
Saturday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Eastern Brooks
Range and Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast through this evening. Another
round of storms is expected in the same areas Saturday afternoon
and evening, and some of these storms may be strong with frequent
lightning and heavy downpours. Up to 0.5-1.5 inches of rain is
possible across most of the area due to these storms.

Outdoor recreators should remain vigilant for thunderstorms as
well as sharp rises on local streams and rivers draining from the
Eastern Brooks Range.

For the latest forecast go to weather.gov/fairbanks

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 23, 3:57 AM AKDTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFG35 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.