Brisk Wind Advisory 203, NWS Fairbanks, AK

476 
FZAK51 PAFG 232237
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
237 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-241430-
237 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure over the Eastern Arctic will strengthen 
into a 1008 mb low then shift into the Yukon Sat night. A 1003 mb
low will move from E Siberia to the Cape Lisburne Sat and Sun.


$$

PKZ225-241430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
237 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-241430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
237 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-241430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
237 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-241430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
237 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-241430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
237 PM AKDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

582 
FZAK51 PAFG 241231
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
431 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-250200-
431 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure will remain over the Arctic Coast as a 
1011 mb low develop over Deadhorse this afternoon, and a 1006 mb
low moves into the Northern Chukchi Sea. High pressure will remain
across the Arctic but weaken. Troughing over the coast will slide
N over the nearshore waters this evening and the offshore waters
Sun morning. The low in the Chukchi Sea will move into the
Southwest Arctic Sun night at 1000 mb, and the low near Deadhorse
will move SE and dissipate. 

$$

PKZ225-250200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
431 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to
5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-250200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
431 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-250200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
431 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-250200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
431 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-250200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
431 AM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding 
to 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

225 
FZAK51 PAFG 242238
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-251415-
238 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low north of Prudhoe Bay today will weaken tonight as
it moves north. A 1005 mb low 100 nm west of Point Hope will move
to 200 nm east of Wrangel Island at 1002 mb by Mon night. 

$$

PKZ225-251415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
238 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-251415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
238 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-251415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
238 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt becoming E. Fog.
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Rain and snow. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-251415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
238 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-251415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
238 PM AKDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm over the Interior and cool out west as ridging holds over the
eastern half of the Mainland. Thunderstorms will be active the
next couple days across the Eastern Interior with the threat for
heavy rain across drought stricken areas, including the Tanana
Valley. Gradual cooling through Sunday as the ridge weakens over
the Eastern Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A closed blocking high is the dominant feature over the Interior
with the high center over the eastern Yukon Flats. The heights at
500 hpa are approximately 565 dam, which is not too shabby but not
overly high for summer. Easterly flow aloft is bringing in subtle
shortwave troughs from the Yukon with the first moving into the
Fortymile Uplands. Out west there is a cold upper level trough
stretching from Wrangel Island all the way through Bristol Bay
into the North Pacific. At the surface a thermal trough is
situated over the Yukon Flats with pressure around 1004 mb. There
is another low in the Gulf of Alaska with a surface high over the
Arctic.

Model Discussion...
The models are in good agreement with the general pattern but less
agreement with precipitation as an easterly wave moves through the
southeast Interior over the next couple days. In general expecting
heavy rain from the Fortymile Uplands to the Eastern Alaska Range
through tomorrow morning as easterly wave one moves into the
Interior. Tomorrow is less certain but it seems likely that a
stronger easterly wave moves in with thunderstorms forming over
much of the Eastern Interior to the eastern Brooks Range. Heavy
rain will be possible from the Eastern AK Range to Fairbanks and
the White Mountains. For now a blend is favored to average out the
high and low model differences in terms of precipitation. Long
story short, wetter and cooler with increased thunderstorm threats
next couple of days.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Easterly wave number one is moving west through the Fortymile
Uplands. Expect scattered thunderstorms to form there then drift
southwest into the Eastern AK Range tonight, bringing moderate
rainfall up to an inch along the north facing slopes. This wave
will stall out over the Eastern AK Range tonight and tomorrow
morning, before a stronger wave moves in Friday afternoon. It is
looking like an active thunderstorm day from the Tanana Valley to
the Fortymile Uplands and north to the White Mountains. Scattered
thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning will develop late afternoon with the potential
for heavy rain to go well into the overnight. Right now the
heaviest rainfall is expected across the Alaska Range and into the
Tanana Valley, where two day totals will be in the range of
0.5-2", heaviest in the AK Range.

The ridge breaks down this weekend with showers and thunderstorms
retreating to closer to the ALCAN late Saturday and then exiting
completely on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A trough over the Bering Strait will gradually shift inland
bringing intermittent showers and light rain to most of the
region. The first trough exits on Saturday with another low moving
in from Siberia, bringing more rain to the Seward Peninsula north,
with the heaviest rain over the Noatak/Kobuk Valley as it moves
inland Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light onshore flow will keep fog and stratus over the immediate
Arctic Coast through Friday. A low will move over the western
Arctic, bringing rain and showers to the North Slope and Brooks
Range Friday and Saturday. On Sat afternoon, the low will move
over the eastern brooks Range, and there will likely be a good
amount of thunderstorms that move off the Brooks Range and into
the arctic waters. Some storms may be strong and will produce
locally heavy rain east of Prudhoe Bay. Another front will bring
more rain to the western Arctic on Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active fire weather the next couple days over the Interior with
scattered thunderstorms today over the Fortymile, and again
tomorrow across a wider swath from Fairbanks east to the ALCAN.
This will be in conjunction with a stronger easterly wave aloft.
This will also produce heavy rainfall over the same areas through
Saturday. The thermal trough slowly erodes after Saturday with
cooling temps and increasing min RH values over the Interior,
along with a significant reduction in thunderstorm activity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Two easterly waves, one tonight and another tomorrow, will bring
heavy rain to the Eastern AK Range and areas to the north.
Between 0.50-2.00 inches of rain possible is SE of Fairbanks
tonight through Sat with the heaviest amounts along the Alaska
Range. This could lead to small stream flooding along the Alaska
Range Fri and Sat, including near Denali Park. Beyond this,
larger stem rivers are running very low so no river flooding is
anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ224.
&&

AHSENMACHER JUL 21