Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

July 16, 2021

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Jul 16, 2021, 2:26 PM AKDT. It was in force for 63 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 16, 2021, 2:26 PM AKDT (22:26 UTC)
Expired
Jul 19, 2021, 5:33 AM AKDT
In force
63 hr
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted.

032 
FZAK52 PAFG 162226
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-171500-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A series of low pressure troughs move across the Chukchi Sea coast
with first moving east this evening. The second one will move 
across on Sat and third will be on Sun. High pressure will remain
over the Eastern Bering Sea through Sunday.

$$

PKZ200-171500-
Norton Sound-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-171500-
Dall Point to Wales-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-171500-
Kotzebue Sound-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to
5 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-171500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21
5 follow-up statements
067 
FZAK52 PAFG 171230
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-180215-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A series of low pressure troughs move across the Chukchi Sea 
coast beginning this morning as a 1004 mb low moves from Cape 
Lisburne to Prudhoe Bay through tonight before weakening. A second
999 mb low will move from Wrangel Island tonight and move east to
Demarcation Point through Sun night. A front will move into the N
Bering Sea Mon.

$$

PKZ200-180215-
Norton Sound-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-180215-
Dall Point to Wales-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-180215-
Kotzebue Sound-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-180215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21
025 
FZAK52 PAFG 172144
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-181400-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low in the Siberian Arctic with a front in the Chukchi 
Sea will move to the Dateline near 75N by Mon morning as weak high
pressure moves over the Chukchi Sea. High pressure S of the 
Bering Strait will move over mainland Alaska as low pressure moves
into the Bering Sea sending a weather front up the coast Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-181400-
Norton Sound-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-181400-
Dall Point to Wales-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. 
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-181400-
Kotzebue Sound-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-181400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21
365 
FZAK52 PAFG 181214
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-190215-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low in the Siberian Arctic with a front in the Chukchi 
Sea will move to the Dateline near 75N by Mon morning as weak high
pressure moves over the Chukchi Sea. High pressure S of the 
Bering Strait will move over mainland Alaska as low pressure moves
into the Bering Sea sending a weather front up the coast Mon.

$$

PKZ200-190215-
Norton Sound-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-190215-
Dall Point to Wales-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-190215-
Kotzebue Sound-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-190215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Jul 21
346 
FZAK52 PAFG 182031
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1231 PM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-191400-
1231 PM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure south of the Bering Strait will move into mainland 
Alaska as a 1001 mb low moves to the Central Bering Sea tonight. A
weather front will move into the Eastern Bering Sea Mon morning 
and up the West Coast Mon evening as a 1009 mb low develops along 
the front and moves to the Seward Peninsula. The low in the 
Central Bering Sea will move to the Bering Strait by Tue 
afternoon at 994 mb. 

$$

PKZ200-191400-
Norton Sound-
1231 PM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-191400-
Dall Point to Wales-
1231 PM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-191400-
Kotzebue Sound-
1231 PM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-191400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
1231 PM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21
711 
FZAK52 PAFG 191333
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-200245-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front in the Eastern Bering Sea will move to Cape 
Lisburne to the Yukon Delta by 4am Tue, and to Utqiagvik south by 
4am Wed. 

$$

PKZ200-200245-
Norton Sound-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-200245-
Dall Point to Wales-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Haze and fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 5 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-200245-
Kotzebue Sound-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Haze and fog. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-200245-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Haze and fog. Rain. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Haze and fog. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 16, 1:52 PM AKDT, 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 1:52 PM AKDT, 34 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A summer weather continues as a strong upper level high moves
over the Mainland, bringing back warm air and temps above the
averages for this time of year for the Central and Eastern
Interior. The pattern will change little over the next few days,
although it will get a little breezier in the afternoon periods
across the Interior. Threats for isolated thunderstorms will
remain mainly over the higher terrain. Light rain will move up
along the West Coast tonight and Saturday, crossing the North
Slope Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A strong upper level ridge continues as the dominate weather
feature across the Mainland. The high pressure is centered along a
Prudhoe Bay to Tanana to Bristol Bay line and is approximately
579 dam which is high even for this time of year. North flow aloft
persists along the eastern periphery of the ridge axis across the
Eastern Interior and Yukon, with a strong warm front aloft
pushing northeast across the Arctic/North Slope. Troughing aloft
remains over Siberia with another shortwave trough over the North
Bering Sea pushes east.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm again tomorrow as upper ridging aloft continues to build in.
Higher clouds are limited to the Eastern Interior while the
Central Interior has mostly clear skies. Expect breezy southwest
winds to develop again tomorrow afternoon with many valley
locations reaching 80 degrees again tomorrow. A few afternoon
isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Fortymile and
Eastern AK Range, the Eastern Brooks Range as well as the White
Mountains this evening and again on Saturday afternoon and
evening. A "cool front" will move east on Saturday late afternoon
bringing a slight and brief "cool down" Sunday, although still
quite warm from Fairbanks eastward with some low to mid 80s. Will
also be a bit breezier Saturday as this front shifts east toward
the ALCAN. Overall, pretty nice summer weather unless you do not
like warm weather.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Southwest onshore flow will keep fog and stratus over the Norton
Sound and Yukon Delta coast this evening, otherwise, another nice
summer evening for the Western Interior. Clouds increase late
with a front bringing light rain and blustery southwest winds to
the NW Arctic, Seward Peninsula, and Western Brooks Range through
Saturday. Some showers will also clip the Yukon Valley as the
front moves east. Ridging builds back in for the Interior on
Sunday with lingering light rain chances along the NW Arctic
Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A warm front which brought temperatures in the 60s and near 70
degrees inland and 40s to 50s along the coast will push to the
east tonight as will the gusty southwest winds. Expect showers/light
rain to begin tonight as a cool front shifts east through Saturday,
also sparking off thunderstorms over the eastern Brooks Range and
possibly onto the eastern Arctic Coast late Saturday. The upper
level flow will remain strong so expect continued breezy southwest
winds and warmer temps to persist through Monday. This will also
limit fog and stratus.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ridging aloft will remain dominant over the Mainland today before
a cool front tracks east across the Interior late Saturday and
Sunday. Temps will again push into the 80s today over the Eastern
Interior, but breezy southwest winds will also bring in more moist
air, so min RH values most likely will remain above 30 percent.
There will be slight chances for thunderstorms the next few days
over the Fortymile and Eastern AK Range, as well as over the
Brooks Range. Otherwise, it will be quite stable to thunderstorms
elsewhere. Sunday cools back down before more warming Monday.
Beyond warm temps and breezy southwest winds today and Saturday,
there is no concern for critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased runoff in small rivers and streams in the
mountains with very high freezing levels increasing snowmelt
runoff in the high terrain.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

CCC JUL 21

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 16, 2:19 AM AKDTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFG3 days
Jul 16, 2:20 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFG50 hr
Jul 16, 9:42 AM AKDTGale WarningAFG5 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.