Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Fairbanks, AK

413 
FZAK52 PAFG 161742
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
942 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-170215-
942 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure will persist over the Chukchi Sea through Sun while
high pressure remains over the Eastern Bering Sea into Sun.

$$

PKZ200-170215-
Norton Sound-
942 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Haze and fog. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Haze and fog. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-170215-
Dall Point to Wales-
942 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Haze and fog. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Haze and fog. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-170215-
Kotzebue Sound-
942 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Haze and fog. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Haze and fog. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-170215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
942 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Haze and fog. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Haze and fog. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

032 
FZAK52 PAFG 162226
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-171500-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A series of low pressure troughs move across the Chukchi Sea coast
with first moving east this evening. The second one will move 
across on Sat and third will be on Sun. High pressure will remain
over the Eastern Bering Sea through Sunday.

$$

PKZ200-171500-
Norton Sound-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-171500-
Dall Point to Wales-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-171500-
Kotzebue Sound-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to
5 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-171500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
226 PM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

067 
FZAK52 PAFG 171230
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-180215-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A series of low pressure troughs move across the Chukchi Sea 
coast beginning this morning as a 1004 mb low moves from Cape 
Lisburne to Prudhoe Bay through tonight before weakening. A second
999 mb low will move from Wrangel Island tonight and move east to
Demarcation Point through Sun night. A front will move into the N
Bering Sea Mon.

$$

PKZ200-180215-
Norton Sound-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-180215-
Dall Point to Wales-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-180215-
Kotzebue Sound-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-180215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
430 AM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

025 
FZAK52 PAFG 172144
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-181400-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low in the Siberian Arctic with a front in the Chukchi 
Sea will move to the Dateline near 75N by Mon morning as weak high
pressure moves over the Chukchi Sea. High pressure S of the 
Bering Strait will move over mainland Alaska as low pressure moves
into the Bering Sea sending a weather front up the coast Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-181400-
Norton Sound-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-181400-
Dall Point to Wales-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. 
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-181400-
Kotzebue Sound-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-181400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
144 PM AKDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

365 
FZAK52 PAFG 181214
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-190215-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low in the Siberian Arctic with a front in the Chukchi 
Sea will move to the Dateline near 75N by Mon morning as weak high
pressure moves over the Chukchi Sea. High pressure S of the 
Bering Strait will move over mainland Alaska as low pressure moves
into the Bering Sea sending a weather front up the coast Mon.

$$

PKZ200-190215-
Norton Sound-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-190215-
Dall Point to Wales-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-190215-
Kotzebue Sound-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-190215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
414 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 AM AKDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A summer weather pattern has quickly returned as a strong upper
level high moves over the Mainland, bringing back warm air and temps
above the averages for this time of year (for the Central and
Eastern Interior). The pattern will change little over the next few
days, although it will get a little breezier in the afternoon
periods across the Interior. Threats for isolated thunderstorms will
remain mainly over the higher terrain. Light rain will move up along
the West Coast Friday night and Saturday, crossing the North Slope
Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A dominant upper level ridge continues to remain a permanent
fixture across the Mainland. The center is now around Southwest
Alaska with a 500 hpa height of approximately 578 dam, which is
rather high even for this time of year. North flow aloft persists
along the eastern periphery of the ridge axis across the Eastern
Interior, with a strong warm front aloft pushing northeast across
the Arctic/North Slope. Troughing aloft is over Siberia with
another shortwave trough over the North Bering Sea.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm again today as upper ridging aloft builds in. Higher clouds
this morning will give way to mostly clearing skies except some
thinner high cirrus. Expect southwest winds to become breezy in
the afternoon with many 80 degree readings expected in lower
valleys. A few afternoon isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across the Fortymile and Eastern AK Range, and maybe a few showers
over the White Mountains. A "cool front" will move east on
Saturday late afternoon bringing a slight and brief "cool down"
Sunday, although still quite warm from Fairbanks eastward with
some low to mid 80s. Will also be a bit breezier Saturday as this
front shifts east toward the ALCAN. Overall, pretty nice summer
weather unless you do not like warm weather.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Southwest onshore flow will keep fog and stratus over the Norton
Sound and Yukon Delta coast today, otherwise, another nice summer
day for the Interior. Clouds increase late with a front bringing
light rain and blustery southwest winds to the NW Arctic, Seward
Peninsula, and Western Brooks Range through Saturday. Some showers
will also clip the Yukon Valley as the front moves east. Ridging
builds back in for the Interior on Sunday with lingering light
rain chances along the NW Arctic Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A warm front will shift east today bringing warm temps into the
60s all the way to Prudhoe Bay area along with breezy southwest
winds over the western half of the Arctic. Expect showers/light
rain beginning tonight as a cool front shifts east through
Saturday, also sparking off thunderstorms over the eastern Brooks
Range and possibly onto the eastern Arctic Coast late Saturday.
The upper level flow will remain strong so expect continued breezy
southwest winds and warmer temps to persist through Monday. This
will also limit fog and stratus after this morning.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Monday, there will be an
expansive ridge aloft over the Mainland with a trough over the
Bering Sea and another deeper upper level low center over the
Chukchi Sea. Monday looks hot over the Interior with temps soaring
into the 80s over the Central/Eastern Interior. The numerical
global models continue to slow down the eastward progression of
the Bering trough inland, which is not a surprise given the very
strong ridging over the Mainland. The ECMWF has led the way with
this pattern, while the American FV3-GFS model has been the
absolute worst. The new 00z ECMWF model now actually slows it down
even further and splits the trough into the Gulf of Alaska by
midweek, keeping the best rain and cooler weather out west. The
GFS is slowly catching on to this idea, but we will continue to
favor the warmer and drier ECMWF for the Eastern Interior, with
wetter and cooler out west and across the Central Interior, by
Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ridging aloft will remain dominant over the Mainland today before
a cool front tracks east across the Interior Saturday and Sunday.
Temps will push into the 80s today over the Eastern Interior, but
breezy southwest winds will also bring in more moist air, so min
RH values most likely will remain above 30 percent. There will be
slight chances for thunderstorms the next few days over the
Fortymile and Eastern AK Range, as well as over the Brooks Range.
Otherwise, it will be quite stable to thunderstorms elsewhere.
Sunday cools back down before more warming Monday. Beyond warm
temps and breezy southwest winds today and Saturday, there is no
concern for critical fire weather conditions.

By Tuesday, cooling and wetter weather moves into the Western and
Central Interior as a trough shifts inland. However, it still
looks to stay on the drier and warmer side over the Eastern
Interior as the upper trough splits and induces south flow aloft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

AHSENMACHER JUL 21