Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

364 
FZAK51 PAFG 021238
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
438 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-030200-
438 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure over the offshore waters with a 1027 mb high 100 nm
N of Prudhoe Bay will drift NE as low pressure over Interior 
Alaska pushes over the Arctic Coast. A trough of low pressure will
develop over the Arctic Plain Sat and move N across the offshore
waters Sun.

$$

PKZ225-030200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
438 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-030200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
438 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-030200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
438 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-030200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
438 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog.
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-030200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
438 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog.
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary Arctic front over the North Slope will persist into
Fri then dissipate. This front, combined with high pressure north
of the Arctic Coast, is causing stratus and fog along the North
Slope that will persist into Sat.

Hot and dry conditions over the Eastern Interior will persist
into Fri, with Red Flag conditions possible near the Alaska Range
Fri as winds increase there.

A cold front over SW Alaska will spread into the Western Interior
on Fri, and to the North Slope and Eastern INterior on Sat. This
is causing rain over SW Alaska now that will spread to the Western
Interior on Fri, and bring a chance of rain to the Eastern
Interior and North Slope on Sat. The Southeast Interior will have
only a slight chance of rain on Sat. Southwest flow trailing the
front will keep conditions wet most areas other than the SE
Interior on Sun. The Brooks Range could see significant rain Sat
and Sun as the front moves into the area with the southwest flow
causing upslope flow. Conditions will cool most areas behind the
front.

Isolated thunderstorms will occur today in the Western Interior
just ahead of the front, then spread to the Central and Western
Interior on Fri, and to the ALCAN Border area on Sat.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a ridge over Western Canada and
Eastern Alaska and a trough over the Bering Sea and Western Gulf
of Alaska. A series of short wave troughs will rotate north out of
the long wave trough through next week, gradually digging into the
long wave ridge and gradually pulling the long wave trough over
Mainland Alaska by the middle of next week. This will cause trend
towards cooler and wetter conditions next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, all models initialize 20-30 meters too low with the
heights of the h500 ridge over the Eastern Interior. Models
showers similar solutions aloft through Sun. Expect the h500
ridge too remain stronger than models indicate through Fri and
possibly into the weekend, which will cause the Ern Interior to be
a bit warmer and drier than models indicate Fri into the weekend.

With precip, models show similar solutions through 4pm Fri, then
after that time the GFS brings more precip and higher pops into
the SE INterior than the NAM and ECMF. Prefer the NAM/ECMF after
4pm Fri as the Southerly flow aloft should keep the SE Interior
fairly dry into Sun. Will use a blend of the GFS/NAM and ECMF
precip for amounts and areal coverage through 4pm Fri, then us a
blend of the ECMF and NAM precip for Fri night into Sun.

At the surface at 18Z, models verify well. The GFS and NAM deepen
the thermal trough over the Interior on Fri more than the ECMF.
Prefer a blend of the NAM and GFS for surface feature through
Sun.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of models for
temperatures, use a blend of the models for precip area and
amounts through 4pm Fri then use a blend of the ECMF and NAM for
precip for Fri night through Sun. Will use a blend of the NAM and
GFS for surface winds.

The GFS is a bit faster than the ECMF and Canadian bringing the
long wave trough east over AK next week. Since the ridge will
likely remain stronger than models indicate into the weekend, will
use the slower progression of the long wave trough shown by the
ECMF next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions over the Eastern Interior will persist
into Fri, with Red Flag conditions expected near the Alaska Range
Fri as winds increase there.

A cold front over SW Alaska will spread into the Western Interior
on Fri, and to the North Slope and Eastern INterior on Sat. This
is causing rain over SW Alaska now that will spread to the Western
Interior on Fri, and bring a chance of rain to the Eastern
Interior and North Slope on Sat. The Southeast Interior will have
only a slight chance of rain on Sat. Southwest flow trailing the
front will keep conditions wet most areas other than the SE
Interior on Sun. The Brooks Range could see significant rain Sat
and Sun as the front moves into the area with the southwest flow
causing upslope flow. Conditions will cool most areas behind the
front.

Isolated thunderstorms will occur today in the Western Interior
just ahead of the front, then spread to the Central and Western
Interior on Fri, and to the ALCAN Border area on Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High rivers in Northwest Alaska and the Western North Slope this
week. Larger rivers in Northwest Alaska and the Western North
Slope will remain high through this weekend. Water levels in the
lower portions of the Noatak, Kobuk Rivers and Colville Rivers are
still rising and are expected to crest late this week, while the
upper portions of these rivers are starting to fall now. No
flooding is expected at this time.

Small rivers in Northwest Alaska and the Western North Slope have
already crested and are starting to fall. Between 2 and 3 inches
of rain fell over portions of Northwest Alaska and the Western
Brooks Range earlier this week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JB JUL 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
959 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

AKZ222-021600-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
959 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...Smoke Moving Into The Fairbanks Area Today...

Smoke from the Munson Ridge Fire near Chena Hot Springs moved into
North Pole and Eielson early this morning, and is starting to move
into the Fairbanks area now. The smoke at the surface will
thin this afternoon as it mixes higher in the atmosphere. Smoke
will thicken again after midnight tonight in Fairbanks, North Pole
and Eielson.

JB