Small Craft Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

443 
FZAK52 PAFG 011213
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-020200-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure has moved into the Chukchi Sea, with low pressure to
the S of the Bering Strait with a 993 mb low and weather front near
the Pribilofs moving around a 978 mb low near Atka. As the low 
near Atka weakens and moves into the Eastern Bering Sea Fri the 
low near the Pribilofs will move near the Dateline at 996 mb, and 
a 1002 mb low will develop near Nunivak Island. 

$$

PKZ200-020200-
Norton Sound-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-020200-
Dall Point to Wales-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-020200-
Kotzebue Sound-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-020200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

641 
FZAK52 PAFG 012320
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
320 PM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-021430-
320 PM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist 
into Sun. A low in the Southeast Bering Sea will move to 100 NM 
south of Gambell by 4pm Fri, and then to 60 NM west of Point Hope
by 4pm Sat. 

$$

PKZ200-021430-
Norton Sound-
320 PM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-021430-
Dall Point to Wales-
320 PM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft. Fog,
rain. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-021430-
Kotzebue Sound-
320 PM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-021430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
320 PM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

563 
FZAK52 PAFG 021244
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-030200-
444 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure in the Chukchi Sea will be pushed N as low pressure
around a 996 mb low in the Bering Sea pushes N into the area. A
weather front will move N into the Chukchi Sea tonight and remain
in the area through Sun.

$$

PKZ200-030200-
Norton Sound-
444 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-030200-
Dall Point to Wales-
444 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt, except NE winds 25 kt NW of St Lawrence 
Island. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt, except NE winds 25 kt NW of St Lawrence
Island diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-030200-
Kotzebue Sound-
444 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-030200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
444 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

390 
FZAK52 PAFG 030004
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-031430-
404 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure north of Alaska will persist into Sat and move east
on Sun. An weather front over SW Alaska will move to Point Lay 
east on Sat, to Wainwright southeast by 4am on Sun, then dissipate.
A second weather front will move north into SW Alaska on Sun, and
then move inland on Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-031430-
Norton Sound-
404 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt becoming S. Rain. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-031430-
Dall Point to Wales-
404 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. Rain. Fog.
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-031430-
Kotzebue Sound-
404 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-031430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
404 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
5 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

140 
FZAK52 PAFG 031150
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-040215-
350 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front over the Bering Strait will push north today. A 
second weather front will move north into SW Alaska on Sun, and 
then move inland on Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-040215-
Norton Sound-
350 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-040215-
Dall Point to Wales-
350 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-040215-
Kotzebue Sound-
350 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-040215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
350 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

712 
FZAK52 PAFG 031228 CCA
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-040215-
428 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front over the Bering Strait will push north today. A 
second weather front will move north into SW Alaska on Sun, and 
then move inland on Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-040215-
Norton Sound-
428 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-040215-
Dall Point to Wales-
428 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-040215-
Kotzebue Sound-
428 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-040215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
428 AM AKDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
437 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Heavy rains in the Western Brooks Range will be
tapering off, but a Flood Advisory and a Flood Watch remain in
effect for the drainages out of the area. Showers moving up the
West Coast and to St Lawrence Island today. Clearing skies in the
Interior from Galena east. Winds increasing on St Lawrence
Island today with gusts around 50 mph Thursday. Winds in the
Interior will be variable to 10 mph today, then increasing winds
near the Alaska Range passes with gusts to 35 mph Thursday.
Temperatures rising with highs in the Interior in the 70s
today, and the 70s to mid 80s Thursday and Friday.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Not seeing a lot of changes from the previous solutions,
and the 30/00Z solutions are in good agreement. Also not much
change if any in the surface solutions, and they initialized well
against the 30/06Z local analysis. Ridging will dominate south of
the Brooks Range through the short term, with troughing over the
Arctic and to the southwest over the Aleutians. Convective
indicies are pretty marginal today and Thursday, then slightly
better on Friday north of the Yukon River. Will not be making any
big changes to the current forecast database, but will increase
the winds on St Lawrence Island today and tomorrow, and near the
Alaska Range passes Thursday and Friday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing remains over the Arctic extends
southwest from a 515 dam low 500 nm north of Demarcation Point
with a sharp trough extending just north of Wrangel Island with
zonal flow over the southern Arctic. Several waves are moving
through the zonal flow across the Arctic Coast today. Over
mainland Alaska a 564 dam low that was over the Copper River Basin
has moved over the AlCan Border near McCarthy, and ridging has
pushed north over the Western Interior and is pushing northeast
into the Central Interior this morning. Troughing remains over the
Bering Sea as a 529 dam low has moved over Adak this morning. By
this afternoon the low in the Arctic will continue east to the
Canadian Archipelago with the trough extending to just south of
Wrangel Island and zonal flow remaining over the southern Arctic.
The low east of McCarthy will move over Yakutat at 567 dam as the
ridging pushes northwest over St Lawrence Island, and north to the
Brooks Range over the Interior with 570 dam heights moving over
the southern Interior. The troughing will remain over the Bering
Sea as the low moves over Atka at 530 dam. By Thursday morning the
troughing over the arctic will slide to the southeast, but remain
over the offshore waters and the Northwest Chukchi Sea. Ridging
over the state will continue as it continues to push to the
northwest over the Chukotsk Peninsula and north over the Brooks
Range with 570 dam heights from the Yukon River southeast. The low
over Atka will move 100 nm southeast of Atka at 528 dam, and the
low over Yakutat will move southeast over the Panhandle. Thursday
afternoon ridging over the state will be anchored by a 576 dam
high over McCarthy with ridging extending northwest over the
Chukchi Sea and north over the Arctic Plain. The troughing over
the Arctic will continue to drag east and remain offshore, while
the low near Atka will move to 150 nm south of Unalaska. At 850
hpa...The 0C isotherm lies from Kaktovik to Point Hope this
morning with temperatures over the remainder of the forecast area
in the 0C to +7C range. As ridging aloft builds over the area the
+10C isotherm will surge into the southeast Interior and by
Thursday morning it will lie from Eagle to Tanana to Galena then
south with temperatures along the AlCan near +13C. The 0C isotherm
to the north will slowly push north and by Friday afternoon will
be north of the coast, while the +10C will continue to surge to
the northwest and will lie from Old Crow YT along the south slopes
of the Brooks Range to Noatak then southeast to Huslia to
Minchumina to Denali with the warmest temperatures of around +17C
in the Fortymile Country and Upper Yukon Flats. Friday night the
+10C isotherm will start to pull back toward the Yukon Territory
as a cooling trend begins.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains over the Arctic, and
south to the Brooks Range, with a 994 mb low in the Northern
Beaufort Sea and low pressure extending southwest to a 1013 mb low
in the Chukchi Sea, then south to a 977 mb low near Atka. A
stalled weather front remains over the Arctic Plain and Brooks
Range. High pressure south of the Brooks Range with a 1019 mb high
near McGrath. The thermal trough remains to the north and east of
Fairbanks, lying from Eagle to Huslia. Thursday morning High
pressure will push north over the Brooks Range with a 1018 mb high
near Coldfoot and high pressure extending south over Prince
William Sound. The front over the Plains will be pushed over the
Eastern Arctic coast and the near shore waters as a 1026 mb high
pushes into the Western Chukchi Sea. The low near Atka will be 100
nm southeast of Atka at 981 mb with a front lying from the
Pribilofs southeast over Sand Point. By Thursday evening that
front will move to the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island.
Leeside troughing developing north of the Alaska Range Thursday
evening as high pressure holds over the eastern Interior, and a
1025 mb high will move to Utqiagvik. Friday morning the troughing
over the Interior will be enhanced as the decaying front with a
1007 mb low moves to Galena while high pressure holds over
Southcentral and the Copper River Basin. A tight pressure gradient
develops across the Alaska Range, and to the north a 1029 mb high
will move to 100 nm north of Prudhoe Bay and the pressure
gradient across the Brooks Range will tighten as well.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy with rain, mixing with
snow this morning, tapering off today for most of the area. Some
lingering showers in the Eastern Arctic through the evening. Flood
Advisory remains in effect for the Western Brooks Range. River
running high, but within banks at this time. Temperatures will be
cooler today and tomorrow, then warming. Highs along the coast
will only be in the 30s to around 40 today and Thursday with lows
in the 30s. Warmer inland and in the Brooks Range with highs in
the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Flood Advisory and Flood Watch
remain in effect for the Noatak and Kobuk Basins and the Western
Brooks Range. Rivers are running high, but are within banks.
Generally Cloudy. Rain north of Kotzebue tapering off, with
showers from Kotzebue south as a weather front moves north up the
coast. Rain developing on St Lawrence Island with up to 2 inches
through Thursday. Highs from Kotzebue north in the 40s today, and
50s to 60s Thursday, and to the south in the 50s and 60s. Lows
will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Winds south at 5 to 20 mph
becoming east to southeast by this evening and increasing Thursday
along the coast to 10 to 25 mph. Winds on St Lawrence Island
southeast at 10 to 20 increasing Thursday to 25 to 35 mph gusting
to 50 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Clearing skies with warming
temperatures today through Friday before it starts cooling down.
Some showers possible near the Brooks Range, otherwise pretty
quiet. Increasing chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday north
of the Yukon River. Temperatures will be warming into the 70s
today, then the 70s to mid 80s for Thursday and Friday before
things start cooling down. Winds southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph
today and Thursday with winds increasing near the Alaska Range
with gusts to 35 mph near the passes on Thursday. Stronger winds
gusting around 50 mph expected near the passes on Friday, and from
the White Mountains north and east expect northeast winds to be
gusting to around 25 mph Friday. In the Fairbanks area winds will
be Southwest to west to 10 mph today, then swing around to
northeast to 10 mph tonight and Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft is sliding east
while troughing will extend from high in the Arctic over the
Chukotsk Peninsula to troughing across the Bering Sea. This will
produce southwest flow over the state with cooler temperatures,
and waves of moisture moving across the state to start the week.
This will be a stable pattern with a significant decrease in
thunderstorm activity. Ridging will bring some warmer temperatures
to the Eastern Interior Tuesday and Wednesday.

.Fire Weather...Warm and dry today, after the clouds move out,
and Thursday, then warm with some isolated wet thunderstorms north
of the Yukon River Friday. Thermal trough is in the southeast
Interior near Northway today, and will lie in the Upper and Middle
Tanana Valley, them southwest to McGrath Thursday. Friday it will
lie from Tok to Selawik. Wetting rains in the Noatak and Kobuk
Basins will be tapering off today. Minimum Relative Humidity
values will be above 30 percent today, then falling into the 20s
for Tanana and Upper Yukon Valleys, and Fortymile Country Thursday
and Friday. Overnight Relative Humidity recovery will be fair
tonight, poor Thursday night, and fair Friday night. South winds
near the Alaska Range will be increasing with gusts around 35 mph
Thursday, then gusts to around 50 mph Friday with near Red Flag
conditions developing Friday morning through early evening.
Stronger northeast winds to 25 mph are expected Friday mainly from
the White Mountains north and east. Temperatures will be warming
the next couple days with highs between the ranges and east of the
Nulato Hills in the 70s to mid 80s through Friday. Cooler
temperatures for the weekend as highs fall into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.Hydrology...Flood Advisory, and Flood Watch continues for
portions of the Western Brooks Range and the Upper Noatak and
Kobuk Basins. The rivers and streams are on the rise, and some
have already reached bankfull. The heaviest rainfall will be
tapering off this morning with more showers tonight and Thursday,
and Friday night through the weekend. Expect the rivers and
streams in the area to remain high. Some rivers and streams in the
Arctic Plain are also running high, but everything at this time
is well within banks. Interior rivers continue to run below normal
levels and that will continue through the weekend, but the Upper
Tanana will see a gradual rise with the high freezing levels and
temperatures in the area. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch for AKZ205-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

SDB JUN 21