Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Fairbanks, AK

759 
FZAK52 PAFG 302233
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
233 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-011430-
233 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 980 mb low near Adak this evening will move into Bristol Bay and
weaken Fri morning. A trough of low pressure will form near Cape 
Lisburne Thu morning then strengthen through Fri.

$$

PKZ200-011430-
Norton Sound-
233 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-011430-
Dall Point to Wales-
233 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-011430-
Kotzebue Sound-
233 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-011430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
233 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

443 
FZAK52 PAFG 011213
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-020200-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure has moved into the Chukchi Sea, with low pressure to
the S of the Bering Strait with a 993 mb low and weather front near
the Pribilofs moving around a 978 mb low near Atka. As the low 
near Atka weakens and moves into the Eastern Bering Sea Fri the 
low near the Pribilofs will move near the Dateline at 996 mb, and 
a 1002 mb low will develop near Nunivak Island. 

$$

PKZ200-020200-
Norton Sound-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-020200-
Dall Point to Wales-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-020200-
Kotzebue Sound-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-020200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
413 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall is occurring across most of the North Slope and
the Brooks Range, with the heaviest amounts over the western half
of the Brooks Range. There has already been over two inches of
rainfall at Red Dog Mine with multiple locations over 1.5". These
values are on the order of 10+ year return intervals. Flood
watches remain out for the Western Brooks Range with a flood
advisory for small streams, including the Wulik River. Elsewhere,
quiet weather with seasonal conditions. Warming returns briefly
to the Interior Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A dominant 512 dam 500 hpa arctic low is flattening the flow over
the Arctic and North Slope with a shortwave ridge over Southwest
Alaska. There is a departing mobile shortwave trough over the
Eastern AK Range and Copper Basin. The big player here though is a
powerful "firehose" of Siberian moisture along a frontal zone
directed at the Northwest Arctic Borough. This area of low level
confluence is strong frontogenesis and is creating very heavy rain
rates over this area, thus flood advisories and watches remain in
place.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Breezy day as westerly flow remains strong in association with a
front draped over the North Slope. Showers have formed over parts
of the Interior, and with some forcing aloft they may continue
into the late evening.

Hereafter, not much to say except it will get quite a bit warmer
after tomorrow as ridging aloft builds back in, with highs soaring
back into the 80s Thursday and Friday. Breezy southerly gap winds
will increase in the Alaska Range Thursday and Friday. A threat
for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is possible
Friday afternoon and evening mainly near the mountains of the
Brooks Range and the AK Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Heavy rain continues this afternoon and will continue through
tomorrow night before gradually ending. The heaviest rainfall will
continue over the same area, which will include the Chukchi Sea
coast and Baird Mountains, as well as the Noatak Valley where
another additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected. Strong
southwest winds will gradually diminish through tomorrow. Rainfall
mostly ends Thursday with showery weather thereafter.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Periods of heavy rain will continue across parts of the North
Slope through Thursday as a strong frontal zone remains draped
over the area. This unusual pattern has already dropped 0.5" of
rainfall across many areas, which is a lot for the high Arctic.
Another 1-2" is possible over the west Arctic Plain with 0.5-0.8"
over the eastern Arctic. Rain diminishes Thu evening.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Friday evening, there
will be a ridge aloft moving east as a strong Bering low moves
inland. There will be a chance for thunderstorms as this trough
moves inland, as well as chances for heavier rain showers from the
AK Range to the Brooks Range, all depending where the shortwave
trough ejects. The other story will be cooling temps back into the
low 70s. Showers, cloudy, and cooler weather will persist through
the weekend and likely into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Heavy rain continues over the NW Arctic Borough with cooler
conditions over the West Coast and Interior. A big warm up is
expected with temps soaring back into the 80s Thu and Fri, and
min RH values dropping into the 20s. There will also be gusty
southerly gap winds so there is some concern for near red flag
criteria

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain will continue through tomorrow night before it
diminishes. 1-2.2" of rainfall has already been recorded at some
gages in the Brooks Range, with the highest rise seen on the
Wulik River, which as went from 6 to 9.5 feet, which is still
below flood stage. However, 1-3" of rainfall is still expected to
fall across that basin, so it is still expected to rise to near
bankfull. Otherwise, a flood advisory remains in effect as small
streams are expected to rise rapidly across the Western Brooks
Range as rain continues to fall, so any outdoor recreators should
remain vigilant.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch for AKZ205-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Flood Advisory AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

&&

AHSENMACHER JUN 21