Small Craft Advisory 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

504 
FZAK52 PAFG 282259
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291415-
259 PM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front will remain in the Chukchi Sea as high pressure
pushes across the Northern Chukchi Sea. High pressure persists 
over the Northeast Bering Sea with low pressure over the Central 
Aleutians.

$$

PKZ200-291415-
Norton Sound-
259 PM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291415-
Dall Point to Wales-
259 PM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291415-
Kotzebue Sound-
259 PM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-291415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
259 PM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

607 
FZAK52 PAFG 291241
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300200-
441 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front will remain across the Chukchi Sea as high 
pressure pushes across the Northern Chukchi Sea. High pressure 
will weaken over the Northeast Bering Sea as a 985 mb low moves
to Atka Wed morning.

$$

PKZ200-300200-
Norton Sound-
441 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-300200-
Dall Point to Wales-
441 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt, except 25 kt near the Bering Strait.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt, except 25 kt near the Bering Strait in
the evening. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300200-
Kotzebue Sound-
441 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-300200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
441 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

506 
FZAK52 PAFG 292308
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301415-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...

A front across the Bering Strait to Chukchi Sea Coast will weaken
tonight. A 992 mb low will form over the N Bering Sea Thu with a
second trough of low pressure over the West Coast.

$$

PKZ200-301415-
Norton Sound-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-301415-
Dall Point to Wales-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301415-
Kotzebue Sound-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-301415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 PM AKDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low over the West Coast continues to bring mostly
cloudy skies and showers to most of Northern Alaska today. Our
main focus continues to be on a series of fronts that will bring
heavy rain to the Chukchi Sea Coast, North Slope, Brooks Range,
and the Kobuk and Noatak Valleys from tonight through Wednesday.
Rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible. Elsewhere,
quiet and seasonable weather is expected through mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A weakening 551 dam 500 hpa upper level low is centered over the
West Coast, supporting broad southerly flow over most of Northern
Alaska. This upper level low is gradually being squashed between
two strong features, a 598 dam high over British Columbia, and a
510 dam low around 80N in the high Arctic. The low in the high
Arctic will send the first of several shortwaves and a steady
stream of moisture into the Chukchi Sea Coast starting this
evening, and continuing through Wednesday. These shortwaves will
gradually push broad troughing across most of N AK, with stable
southwest to west flow over the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Overall pretty quiet and seasonable weather across the area as we
transition into the work week with partly to mostly cloudy skies
and isolated showers each day under southwest flow. A few
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon east of Dot Lake.
Seasonable temperatures will continue with highs generally in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The upper level low continues to bring mostly cloudy conditions,
gusty southerly winds, and isolated showers to the area. A strong
front will move into the Chukchi Coast late tonight through Monday,
bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to areas north of the Bering
Strait. Another front will move into the area Tuesday, with
another surge of moisture and heavy rain through Wednesday.
Rainfall accumulations from tonight through Wednesday will be one
to three inches or more for the Chukchi Coast, Noatak and Kobuk
Valleys, and Western Brooks Range, with the heaviest amounts in
the higher terrain. South of these areas will see some
occasionally gusty southwest winds, as well as seasonable temps
and isolated showers through mid week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A warm and partly cloudy day across the area under offshore
southwest flow. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms
that form over the Brooks Range this afternoon and then drift
across the eastern Arctic Coast through the evening. A front will
move from west to east across the area later on this evening
through Monday, bringing cooler temps, gusty southwest winds, and
widespread rain to most of the area. Additional surges of moisture
will continue to bring widespread rain across the Brooks Range
and most of the North Slope through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of
two to three inches or more are expected across the Western and
Central Brooks Range, with one half to one inch across the North
Slope.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
Beginning the extended forecast on Wednesday, there will be a
very large arctic low centered offshore of the Arctic Coast, and
another large low moving into the Aleutians, with ridging
building ahead of it into southwest Alaska. Heavy rain will still
be ongoing across parts of the North Slope and Brooks Range with
drier weather over the Interior. Thursday and into the weekend,
the ridge will gradually build up across the Interior resulting
in much warmer temperatures. For the Central and Eastern Interior,
highs could surge well into the 80s for Thu-Fri as 850 hpa
temperatures peak around 15 celsius. Meanwhile on the West Coast,
expect slightly above normal temperatures and chances for showers
thanks to the low parked over the Aleutians.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest winds increase this afternoon and evening for areas
north of Fairbanks, especially across elevated terrain, and will
persist through Tuesday. A showery and wet pattern continues
across the West Coast with good chances for wetting rain north of
the Seward Peninsula, but precip chances wane across the Interior
through Monday. Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible across
the Brooks Range and eastern Arctic Coast, as well as east of Dot
Lake through this evening. Thunderstorm activity will be more
isolated and limited to east of Dot Lake on Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures cool slightly through midweek. Minimum RH values
above 30 percent with good overnight recovery. It looks like a
big warm-up is on tap for the second half of the week in the
Interior as a ridge builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another round of heavy to significant rainfall is in the works
across the Brooks Range, North Slope, Chukchi Sea Coast, and Kobuk
and Noatak Valleys tonight through Wednesday. There remains a
little bit of uncertainty on how much and where the heaviest
precip falls, but the expectation is for one to three and a half
inches of rainfall across this area, highest in the Brooks Range.
This would lead to sharp rises on creeks, streams, and rivers
stemming from the Brooks Range.
For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

S.F. CULVER JUN 21