Flood Watch 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

975 
WGAK69 PAFG 291237
FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
437 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

AKZ205-208-217-300200-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwestern Brooks Range-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, 
Shungnak, and Kobuk
437 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Western Brooks Range the Western Brooks Range the Western
  Brooks Range. 

* Through Thursday afternoon

* Widespread heavy rainfall is expected to impact the Western
  Brooks Range, including the Noatak and Kobuk River basins,
  through mid-week. Additional rainfall today and tonight of up to
  2 inches is expected in the higher terrain of the Western 
  Brooks Range, with 1 to 2 inches in lower elevations. 

* Already saturated soils from rainfall last week combined with 
  steep terrain and the heavy rain will cause rapid rises in 
  smaller streams that drain the Western Brooks Range, possibly 
  leading to localized flooding. Recreators in the area should 
  be aware that water may rise quickly, gravel bars may become 
  inaccessible, and debris flow will increase on these water 
  ways. The larger rivers in the area, including the Noatak, 
  Kobuk, Wulik, and Colville, will see rises but are expected to 
  remain below bankfull at this time. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

259 
WGAK69 PAFG 292328
FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
328 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

AKZ205-208-217-301600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwestern Brooks Range-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, 
Shungnak, and Kobuk
328 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Western Brooks Range. 

* Through Thursday afternoon.

* Widespread heavy rainfall is expected to continue to impact the
  Western Brooks Range, including the Noatak and Kobuk River 
  basins, through mid-week. Additional rainfall today and tonight 
  of up to 2 inches is expected in the higher terrain of the 
  Western Brooks Range, with 1 to 2 inches in lower elevations. 

* Already saturated soils from rainfall last week combined with
  steep terrain and the heavy rain will cause rapid rises in
  smaller streams that drain the Western Brooks Range, possibly
  leading to localized flooding. Recreators in the area should be
  aware that water may rise quickly, gravel bars may become
  inaccessible, and debris flow will increase on these water ways.
  The larger rivers in the area, including the Noatak, Kobuk, and
  Colville, will see rises but are expected to remain below 
  bankfull at this time. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

819 
WGAK69 PAFG 301134
FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

AKZ205-208-217-010200-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwestern Brooks Range-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, 
Shungnak, and Kobuk
334 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Western Brooks Range. 

* Through Thursday afternoon

* Widespread heavy rainfall is expected to continue to impact the
  Western Brooks Range, including the Noatak and Kobuk River
  basins, through mid-week. Additional rainfall today of up to 1
  inch.  

* Already saturated soils from rainfall last week combined with 
  steep terrain and the heavy rain will cause rapid rises in 
  smaller streams that drain the Western Brooks Range, possibly 
  leading to localized flooding. Recreators in the area should 
  be aware that water may rise quickly, gravel bars may become 
  inaccessible, and debris flow will increase on these water 
  ways. The larger rivers in the area, including the Noatak, 
  Kobuk, and Colville, will see rises but are expected to remain 
  below bankfull at this time. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

691 
WGAK69 PAFG 302354
FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021


AKZ205-208-217-011415-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwestern Brooks Range-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, 
Shungnak, and Kobuk
354 PM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Western Brooks Range The Western Brooks Range The Western
  Brooks Range. 

* Through Thursday afternoon

* Widespread heavy rainfall is expected to continue to impact the
  Western Brooks Range, including the Noatak and Kobuk River
  basins, through Thursday afternoon. Additional rainfall today 
  of up to 1 inch.
  

* Already saturated soils from rainfall last week combined with 
  steep terrain and the heavy rain will cause rapid rises in 
  smaller streams that drain the Western Brooks Range, possibly 
  leading to localized flooding. Recreators in the area should 
  be aware that water may rise quickly, gravel bars may become 
  inaccessible, and debris flow will increase on these water 
  ways. The larger rivers in the area, including the Noatak, 
  Kobuk, and Colville, will see rises but are expected to remain 
  below bankfull at this time. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

385 
WGAK69 PAFG 011037
FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
237 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

AKZ205-208-217-011145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210701T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwestern Brooks Range-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, 
Shungnak, and Kobuk
237 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for the Western Brooks Range has been cancelled. 
Rivers continue to run high, but the heaviest rains have ended 
and river levels are starting to level off, steady, or starting 
to fall.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
644 AM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet across the area with generally dry conditions
for the Interior. A weather front will bring some heavy rains to
the Northwest Arctic and Brooks Range. Temperatures cooler through
midweek. Southwest winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph Tuesday.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 28/00Z solutions are in good agreement through the
short term, and well into the extended periods before things go
astray. The surface solutions initialized well against the 28/06Z
local analysis. Ridging will dominate south of the Brooks Range
through the short term, with troughing over the Arctic and to the
southwest over the Aleutians. Several waves will move around the
low in the Arctic and the solutions seem to have a good handle on
them. Just a general blend of the solutions, leaning away from
the ECMWF for QPF, for the short term to maintain continuity with
previous forecasts.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over the Arctic extends south from
a 507 dam low 600 nm northwest of Utqiagvik. A wave moving around
the low lies over the Northern Beaufort Sea southwest to a 555
dam low over Norton Sound then over the Bering Sea to a 537 dam
low over Kiska Island. There is also a 560 dam low that moved
northeast over Kodiak Island. Ridging over the eastern half of the
Interior will weaken today as the low over Kodiak Island weakens
and pushes northeast into the ridging and heights fall as the low
moves over Prince William Sound as it comes into phase with the
troughing over the Arctic as it moves to lie from Oliktok Point to
Fairbanks to the 561 dam low. The low over Norton sound will back
to the southwest as it merges with the low over the Aleutians.
Ridging will build north over the southeast mainland tonight.
At 850 hpa...+10C isotherm is hanging out around the AlCan border
with pools of temperatures around 0C over the West Coast and the
Northwest Arctic Coast. Temperatures will cool slightly with the
+10C pulling back over Canada.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure over the Arctic with a 981
mb low 600 nm northwest of Utqiagvik and a weather front moving
over the coast that will slowly drag east through Wednesday. High
pressure south of the Brooks Range. The thermal trough is north
of Fairbanks and will remain in there and move to the east.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy with rain spreading east
through tonight as a weather front lays across the area. Rain
heavy at times on the northwest coast and in the Brooks Range with
up to 3 inches of rainfall. With cooler temperatures From Point
Lay to Utqiagvik along the coast snow is expected to mix in at
times overnight through Wednesday. Temperatures on the Northwest
Coast to Utqiagvik will be in the 30s. East of Utqiagvik along the
Coast highs will be in the 50s today and 40s Tuesday with lows in
the 40s. Inland and in the Brooks Range highs will be in the 50s
and 60s today with lows in the 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy with rain north of the
Bering Strait with some showers to the south. Rain heavy at times
in the Noatak and Kobuk Basins and the Brooks Range with up to 3
inches of rainfall. High pressure will push north up the coast to
Norton Sound tonight. Highs along the coast in the 50s with lows
in the 40s. Inland temperatures in the 60s to around 70 with lows
in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds southwest increasing to 10 to
20 mph this afternoon south of the Bering Strait, and to 15 to 25
mph from the Bering Strait north. variable to 15 mph becoming
southeast as the front moves through.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some isolated thunderstorms along
the AlCan Border, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of
smoke, mainly in the Tanana Valley. Winds southwest to 10 mph
becoming gusty in the afternoon. Winds will increase to southwest
at 5 to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph Tuesday. Temperatures in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to
around 50.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft building back in
over the area with warming temperatures and afternoon
thunderstorms and showers for interior locations.

.Fire Weather...Isolated thunderstorms along the AlCan Border
today. Temperatures cooling slightly. Wetting rains in the Upper
Kobuk and Noatak. Winds turning from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph
today, then increasing Tuesday to 10 to 20 mph across the
Interior. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30
percent today and 35 percent Tuesday. Good overnight recovery
through mid week.

&&

.Hydrology...Heavy showers in the Northwest Arctic, Brooks Range,
and Upper Noatak and Kobuk Valleys with up to 3 inches of rain
expected. Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises
this week. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUN 21