Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

801 
FZAK52 PAFG 241200
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-250215-
400 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad area of low pressure over the area will persist with a
trough developing over the West Coast and a 990 mb low developing
in Kotzebue Sound this evening. High pressure will push S over 
the Northern Chukchi Sea Fri as a 1016 mb high moves near Wrangel 
Island.

$$

PKZ200-250215-
Norton Sound-
400 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-250215-
Dall Point to Wales-
400 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-250215-
Kotzebue Sound-
400 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-250215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
400 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

219 
FZAK52 PAFG 242257
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-251415-
257 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad area of low pressure over the area will persist with a
trough developing over the West Coast and a 990 mb low over Kotzebue
Sound. High pressure will push S over the Northern Chukchi Sea 
Fri as a 1016 mb high moves near Wrangel Island.

$$

PKZ200-251415-
Norton Sound-
257 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-251415-
Dall Point to Wales-
257 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-251415-
Kotzebue Sound-
257 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-251415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
257 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PROTON Jun 21

840 
FZAK52 PAFG 251135
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-260230-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad area of low pressure over the area will persist. A 996 mb
low north of Shishmaref will weaken and move northwest through
Saturday as high pressure quickly moves east across the Chukchi
Sea and along the Arctic coast. 

$$

PKZ200-260230-
Norton Sound-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-260230-
Dall Point to Wales-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-260230-
Kotzebue Sound-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-260230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 AM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer has returned in full force as ridging aloft has taken hold
over the Eastern Interior. Thunderstorms will continue to be a
threat out west and along the Brooks Range. Summer is going to
really ramp up over the Central/Eastern Interior today as chinook
warming commences as a low incudes south flow aloft across the
Alaska Range. Temps will shoot into the 80s along with drier and
breezy afternoon conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A broad upper level low dominates the North Pacific with a strong
leading shortwave driving into the Gulf of Alaska. This dynamic
low can be seen on satellite imagery as a broad area of dense
cloud cover with a nice wrapped up low just south of Sand Point. A
shortwave trough in southeast flow is also evident on satellite
this evening crossing the Seward Peninsula and moving northwest.
This feature was responsible for the area of strong thunderstorms
over the Western Interior and parts of the West Coast. Over the
Yukon a 565 dam 500 hpa ridge is in place. Warm 850 hpa temps are
already in place over the Interior with values around 10-13 C, and
this will warm more as a chinook pattern sets up later today. The
atmosphere dynamics over the next few days will bring a lot of
interesting summer weather to the Mainland...

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another warm morning as clouds are keeping temps from dropping
much across parts of the Tanana Valley. Today will end up being
quite a warm one as temps shoot into the 80s as a chinook sets up
across the Alaska Range. This will also crank winds up through the
normal blowholes in the Alaska Range today, with gusts into the
40 mph range by later this afternoon. Any potential thunderstorms
will be relegated to a very slight chance over the Fortymile with
better chances up over the Upper Koyukuk Valley.

Things get even more interesting Thursday as the broad south flow
aloft continues, with a PV anomaly aloft crossing the AK Range
into the Interior in the late afternoon and evening. This will
induce a very strong isallobaric gradient with winds likely
reaching their max in the evening, gusting to the 60 mph range in
the AK Range. Gusty winds will also sweeep across the Interior as
the low ejects with breezy south winds likely lasting well into
the late evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough will
be evening thunderstorm threats moving off the AK Range into the
Interior, with the best chance over the Central Interior but also
over the middle and upper Tanana Valley. Cooler Friday with
continued gusty AK Range gap winds, and mostly dry except over the
southern parts of the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
More active wet thunderstorms today over the West Coast and
Northwest Arctic Borough as a shortwave trough keeps trekking
northwest. The best thunderstorm threat will be over the Western
Brooks and Noatak Valley. Otherwise, drier and warmer elsewhere
with increasing northeast winds in the afternoon. A front
approaches from the south on Thursday, and this will incite
another active weather day with thunderstorms in the afternoon
forming along the Interior mountains as well as along the Western
Brooks Range. More storms will form along the Ak Range in the late
afternoon and evening and move northwest. Eventually all these
storms will merge with a front to the north, forming a deformation
zone aloft and heavy rain across the Kobuk/Noatak Valleys, Western
Brooks, and across the Seward Pensinula and NW Arctic Borough Thu
night and into most of the early day Friday. Cooler conditions
persist into the weekend with rain mostly ending Friday evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
More thunderstorms today along the Brooks Range with locally heavy
showers. Fog and stratus remain elusive, but satellite imagery
shows it lurking offshore, so with an onshore low level wind it is
only a matter of time until it moves in. Thursday evening, a
strong front from the south will move to the Western Brooks Range,
with more thunderstorms turning to heavy rain Thu night through
erly Friday along most of the Brooks Range. This will cross over
to the Arctic Plain and possibly even reach the Arctic Coast with
light rain sometime on Friday. Expect breezy northeast winds over
the Western Arctic Thu and Thu night.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended forecast Saturday, there will be a low over
the Eastern Bering Sea with a very strong near 595 dam 500 hpa
blocking high over the PAC NW and British Columbia. This will keep
an assault from the Pacific onto the Gulf Coast, with ejecting
lows into the Interior through midweek. Cooler temps out west with
periodic warmups over the Interior whenever a low induces enough
chinook warming as it crosses the AK Range north. Expect showery
conditions over the Mainland, with mainly isolated thunderstorm
threats given the weak instability in this pattern. Winds will
also remain gusty from the south through the Alaska Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag warnings still look good through Thursday evening for the
Interior near the Alaska Range as a chinook develops today. Temps
are on track for the 70s for the AK Range and 80s for the
Interior. Breezy drying and warming northeast winds will also
develop this afternoon across the Lower Yukon and YK Delta. More
thunderstorms over the Western Brooks and Noatak Valley today,
otherwise dry across pretty much the remainder of the Mainland.

Thursday, a strong low will cross the AK Range, ramping up south
winds into the 60 mph range across the Alaska Range gaps, with
breezy south winds pushing all the way through the Interior
through the late evening. In addition, wet thunderstorms will
form once again over the Brooks Range and Noatak Valley, with a
sperate area of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms forming
along the AK Range and moving north through the Interior.
Everntually heavy wetting rains will form over the NW Arctic
Borough, Western Brooks, and Noatak/Kobuk Valleys Thu night
lasting into Friday.

Much cooler but still breezy on Friday with showers and a few
isolated wet thunderstorms near the ALCAN. Fire weather concerns
look much more minimal Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain is still on tap for the Brooks Range on Thu night and
Friday as a strong summer time low merges with an arctic trough.
Currently expecting .75-1.5" of rainfall from the Selawik Valley
and across the entire length of the Brooks Range. Heaviest
rainfall looks to be across the Central Brooks Range. Drainages
out of the Brooks Range will therefore see sharp rises Friday
with rivers remaining high through the weekend. Outdoor recreators
should remain vigilant for very fast rises on local streams in the
Brooks Range.

Elsewhere, the Chisana River out of the Eastern AK Range is
beginning to rise near Northway after the recent heavy rainfall,
but no flooding anticipated.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

AHSENMACHER JUN 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1229 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

AKZ218-219-241400-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
and Gobblers Knob
1229 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...Heavy rainfall expected in the Brooks Range Thursday through
Friday evening...

Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected for the Central
and Eastern Brooks Range, as a weather front stalls in the area,
with up to 1.25 inches of rainfall expected.

Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises Friday and
Saturday with rivers remaining high through the weekend.

Outdoor recreators should remain especially vigilant for very
fast rises on local streams and rivers draining out of the
Brooks Range.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1235 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

AKZ208-217-241400-
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Ambler, Shungnak,
and Kobuk
1235 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...Heavy rainfall expected over the Brooks Range and Noatak Valley
Thursday through Friday evening...

Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected for the Western
and Central Brooks Range, as a weather front stalls in the area,
with up to 1.25 inches of rainfall expected.

Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises Friday and
Saturday with rivers remaining high through the weekend.

Outdoor recreators should remain especially vigilant for very
fast rises on local streams and rivers draining out of the Brooks
Range, and Baird Mountains, including the Noatak and Kobuk
rivers.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1241 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

AKZ205-206-241400-
Northwestern Brooks Range-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass,
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
1241 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...Heavy rainfall expected in the Brooks Range Thursday through
Friday evening...

Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Brooks
Range, as a weather front stalls in the area, with up to 1.25
inches of rainfall expected.

Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises Friday and
Saturday with rivers remaining high through the weekend.

Outdoor recreators should remain especially vigilant for very
fast rises on local streams and rivers draining out of the
Brooks Range.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.