Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

107 
FZAK51 PAFG 232142
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
142 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-241400-
142 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure will remain over the offshore waters, but weaken as
a 1000 mb low moves E along 75N. As the low moves off to the NE 
Thu night high pressure associated with a 1015 mb high near 
Wrangel Island will push E over the Central Arctic Coast as a 991 
mb low develops over the McKenzie Delta and moves NE to Banks 
Island by Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ225-241400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
142 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-241400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
142 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-241400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
142 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-241400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
142 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-241400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
142 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

295 
FZAK51 PAFG 241158
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-250215-
358 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A weak 1000 mb low along 75N will move off to the NE tonight. 
High pressure associated with a 1016 mb high near Wrangel Island 
will push E over the Central Arctic Coast as a 992 mb low develops
over Mackenzie Bay and moves NE to Banks Island by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ225-250215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
358 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-250215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
358 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-250215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
358 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-250215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
358 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-250215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
358 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

117 
FZAK51 PAFG 242251
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
251 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-251430-
251 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1016 mb high near Wrangel Island will push E over the Central 
Arctic Coast as a 992 mb low develops over Mackenzie Bay early Fri 
and moves NE to Banks Island by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ225-251430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
251 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-251430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
251 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog and
freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-251430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
251 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-251430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
251 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-251430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
251 PM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt becoming NW. Fog.
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PROTON Jun 21

371 
FZAK51 PAFG 251135
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-260230-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 992 mb low over Mackenzie Bay will move northeast to Banks 
Island by this afternoon. A 1016 mb high near Wrangel Island will 
push east over the central Arctic coast this evening and to 
Mackenzie Bay by Saturday morning.

$$

PKZ225-260230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-260230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-260230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Snow.
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-260230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-260230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
335 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

962 
FZAK51 PAFG 252236
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-261445-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1017 mb high just off the central Arctic Coast will push east 
to Mackenzie Bay on Saturday, while a 980 mb low moves into the 
high Arctic by Saturday evening.

$$

PKZ225-261445-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding
to 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-261445-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding
to 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-261445-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Snow.
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-261445-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-261445-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
236 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt becoming E. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

271 
FZAK51 PAFG 261057
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 AM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-270215-
257 AM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1021 mb high over Mackenzie Bay will move to near Banks Island 
by this afternoon, while a 983 mb low in the high Arctic moves 
eastward.

$$

PKZ225-270215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
257 AM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-270215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
257 AM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-270215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
257 AM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Snow and rain. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-270215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
257 AM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-270215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
257 AM AKDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms and showers mainly west of Fairbanks
with scattered thunderstorms from the Middle Yukon Valley to the
Upper Noatak Valley this evening. Wednesday winds will pick up
near the Alaska Range Passes, so Red Flag Warnings have been
issued. Thunderstorms and showers will be mainly north of the
Yukon River Wednesday. Temperatures slightly warmer tomorrow, then
cooling through the weekend. A weather front moving to the Brooks
Range will bring up to 1.5 inches of rain to the Central Brooks
Range so expect rapid rises in the south drainages of the Brooks
Range starting Friday.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...There is pretty good agreement in the solutions through
the midrange with some differences showing up late in the
extended. Surface solutions initialized well against the local
surface analysis. With the ridging being held off by troughing
over the West Coast temperatures will be a bit cooler starting
Thursday and lasting into next week. Troughing to the west will
bring more showers to the West Coast and interior. Troughing will
remain over the Arctic with the potential for a sharp trough to
drop some cold air south over the area early next week. For today
we used a blend of the solutions to maintain continuity with
current forecast database. Did extend the thunderstorms a bit
later tonight in the northwest and there is potential
thunderstorms could continue overnight.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the northeast corner of the
state with a 566 dam center over Arctic Village this afternoon. A
road area of lower heights to the southwest and west around a 527
dam low that is 250 nm south of Amchitka. A fairly strong
shortwave extends northeast from the low over Bethel to McGrath
and will move to lie from Cape Romanzof to Ruby this evening, and
Nome to Ambler later tonight, and Nome to Kotzebue early Wednesday
morning. A weaker wave will move over Prince William Sound and the
eastern Gulf Coast Tuesday night, and the Alaska Range Wednesday
morning, then over the Eastern Interior Wednesday evening. The
ridge will continue to slide southeast with the center moving over
the southeast Yukon Territory Wednesday morning with ridging
extending northwest over Utqiagvik. Another wave moving around the
low will move over the Gulf of Alaska Coast by Wednesday
afternoon as the low moves to 400 nm south of Cold Bay at 522 dam.
The wave will continue north over the Alaska Range by Thursday
morning as the low moves to 200 nm south of Sand Point at 521 dam.
Ridging Thursday will continue to hold on over the Brooks Range
with a col over the Chukchi Sea. In the Arctic a 520 dam low 900
nm north of the Eastern Arctic Coast will drift northwest as
heights fall to 516 dam by Thursday morning, and zonal flow
develops over the Arctic. A wave swinging around the low out of
the Siberian Arctic will move over the Central Arctic and approach
the Northwest Arctic Coast Thursday night. At 850 hpa...Dome of
+10C or warmer over the northeast half of the mainland with the
+10C isotherm lying from Yakutat to Point Hope. Warm air spreads
southwest and by Wednesday afternoon the +10C isotherm will lie
from Yakutat to Anvik to Point Hope. The warm air will start
pulling south from the Arctic Coast Wednesday night and by
Thursday afternoon the +10C temperatures will be mostly between
the ranges.

Surface...Low pressure over most of mainland Alaska with troughing
between the ranges. High pressure over the Arctic Coast with a
1012 mb high near Utqiagvik and a 1016 mb high near Wrangel
Island. High pressure has also pushed west over the Gulf of Alaska
Coast with a 1017 mb high in Prince William Sound. Thermal
troughing From Delta Junction to Noatak, and in the Middle Yukon
south to Anvik today. A front moving around the 988 mb low in the
North Pacific will move up the West Coast this evening. The low
will move east and merge with a 983 mb low that develops in the
North Pacific and moves to 200 nm south of Sand Point tonight. The
thermal trough will move to lie from Noatak to Fort Yukon tonight
with a branch remaining in the Middle Yukon Valley. As a front
associated with the low moves into the Interior tonight winds near
the Alaska Range passes will increase to 15 to 30 mph gusting to
40 mph for Wednesday morning. As a stronger front moves across the
Alaska Range Wednesday night the gradient across the range
compresses and winds near the passes will increase to 25 to 40 mph
gusting to 60 mph.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions will
continue tonight through Wednesday with northeast to southeast
flow. A few patches of stratus may move off the water over the
coast overnight, but do not see anything extensive offshore that
could move in. Inland areas will remain mostly clear with some
isolated Thunderstorms, mainly in the Western Brooks Range. Along
the coast highs in the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the 30s.
Inland Highs in the 60s and 70s with lows around 50, and in the
Brooks Range highs in the 40s to 60s, with lows in the 30s. Winds
northeast to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Thunderstorms and showers as a
front moves through the area this afternoon and overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms from the Middle Yukon and Northern Nulato
Hills to the Upper Noatak and Kobuk will bring quite a bit of
lighting that could last into Wednesday morning before
diminishing. Isolated thunderstorms south of Kaltag and on the
Seward Peninsula. Thunderstorms again Wednesday afternoon and
evening will be mainly north of Galena. Temperatures in the 60s to
mid 70s this evening, with highs 5 to 15 degrees cooler Wednesday.
Winds variable to 15 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some isolated showers and isolated
to scattered thunderstorms this evening mainly west of Fairbanks.
Isolated thunderstorms and showers Wednesday afternoon and
evening, but mainly north of the Yukon River. Winds increasing
near the Alaska Range passes in the morning with gusts around 30
mph, then diminishing a bit in the afternoon before increasing
later in the day to 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph. Winds will
continue to increase Wednesday night with winds near the passes
gusting to 55 mph Thursday. South winds picking up in the hills as
well on Thursday to around 10 mph and gusty. In the valleys winds
5 to 10 mph. Temperatures warming into the 80s tomorrow, then
cooling into the upper 60s and 70s Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A front moving into the
Interior from the south will bring increased chance of showers,
especially west and north of Fairbanks, Saturday. Troughing aloft
will remain over the West Coast through the weekend with cloudy
conditions and showers west of Fairbanks. From Fairbanks east
isolated thunderstorms and showers for the weekend, then
increasing chances to start the week. Temperatures will be 5 to 15
degrees cooler across the forecast area next week.

.Fire Weather...Thunderstorms developing mainly to the west of
Fairbanks and will become scattered through the evening.
Thunderstorms in the northwest and Kotzebue Sound region may last
well into the night before ending. More isolated thunderstorms and
scattered showers Wednesday mainly north of the Yukon River. Red
Flag Warnings remain in effect for the Upper Noatak and Kobuk
areas, with Red Flag Warnings issued for the Delta Junction area,
and the Alaska Range Passes for Wednesday and Thursday as strong
winds develop in those areas.

&&

.Hydrology...Mainly showery conditions tonight and Wednesday with
no concerns. Showers will get packed up against the south slopes
of the Brooks Range Thursday into Friday as a weather front moves
into the area. Rainfall from Thursday morning through Friday
morning will range from 1.0 inch to 1.5 inch in the Central
Brooks Range from Ambler to Coldfoot. Drainages out of the Brooks
Range will see sharp rises Friday with rivers remaining high
through the weekend. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning for AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

&&

SDB JUN 21