Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS Fairbanks, AK

951 
FZAK51 PAFG 172229
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
229 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-181415-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure will persist over the Arctic Coast into the weekend. 

$$

PKZ225-181415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-181415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas building to 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-181415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-181415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-181415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

005 
FZAK51 PAFG 180339 AAA
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
739 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-181415-
739 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure will persist over the Arctic Coast into the weekend. 
A thermal low pressure trough over the Brooks Range will persist
into the weekend. 

$$

PKZ225-181415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
739 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-181415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
739 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas building to 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-181415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
739 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-181415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
739 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-181415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
739 PM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

613 
FZAK51 PAFG 181145
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
345 AM AKDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-190215-
345 AM AKDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure will persist over the Arctic Coast through the 
weekend as a thermal low pressure trough persists over the Brooks
Range.

$$

PKZ225-190215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
345 AM AKDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-190215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
345 AM AKDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-190215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
345 AM AKDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-190215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
345 AM AKDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-190215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
345 AM AKDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 AM AKDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Another active day with thunderstorms across the interior today
mainly north of a line from Russian Mission to Manley Hot Springs
to Eagle. Thunderstorms will not be a strong as yesterdays storms
but will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, small hail
and heavy downpours along a Cold Foot to Bettles to Ruby line.
Expect numerous showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
the rest of the Interior this morning and over the southern
portions of the Western Interior this afternoon and tonight.
Cooler today with higher relative humidity levels are expected
south and east of Fairbanks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 17/00z model solutions remain in good agreement on
timing and position of various synoptic scale features. The
models initialized well against the 00z surface analysis and
verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Only minor tweaks
were made in the current forecast package.

Aloft... at 500 mb a 570 dam high pressure ridge remains over
northeastern Alaska and the Northern Yukon while a 553 dam low
 in the Gulf of Alaska with an inverted trough extending north
over the Central Alaska Range slowly moves to the west today. The
upper level ridge over the Yukon builds back toward the west over
Eastern Alaska on Friday and then weakens again as a shortwave
rotating around another low in the northern Gulf of Alaska moves
north and west into the Southeastern Interior on Saturday. This
shortwave will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
over much of the Interior Saturday and Saturday night in the
Eastern and Central Interior and Sunday for the Western Interior.

Surface...a 1022 mb high pressure system located over Beaufort Sea
and McKenzie Delta will drift north today and Friday while a
thermal low in the northern Interior pushes to the north over the
Brooks Range. A trough of low pressure in the Southern Interior
will push west today into the Lower YK Delta and will be the focus
for scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms to
the west and southwest of Fairbanks. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon in the Northern Interior along a line
from Ruby, to Bettles to Cold Foot.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear from along the coast
as well as the plains with strong high pressure aloft and drying
offshore winds, however as low level winds become more onshore
over the next several days the offshore stratus will make its way
back onto the coast today and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms in
the Eastern Arctic Plain and Brooks Range again this evening, and
expect that will continue for a few more days. Expect mainly
easterly winds in the 5 to 15 mph range along the coast while
inland winds will be light and variable. Temperatures along and
near the coast in the upper 40s to mid 50s, while inland areas
will be in the 50s to around 70 for highs, while lows on the coast
will be in the 40s and inland around 50.

West Coast and Western Interior...Offshore flow will continue to
bring some partly to mostly cloudy skies to the coastal areas
while a front pushing west from the Central Interior will produce
isolated thunderstorms today from Marshall northeast to Ambler and
widely scattered thunderstorms from near Ruby northeast to Bettles
and Cold Foot. Temperatures today will reach the 60s along the
coast and will remain in the 70s inland. St Lawrence Island a bit
warmer as well with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid 30s.
Winds light and variable, or offshore to 10 mph, except on St
Lawrence Island, winds will be southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered to numerous showers as well
as isolated embedded wet thunderstorms are expected over the
southern Interior today with the the heaviest showers and best
chances for wetting rain in the Alaska Range, south and southwest
of Fairbanks. Storm total rainfall amounts through this evening in
the one inch in the Alaska Range will produce rapid rises in the
drainages flowing out of the range with some of the streams and
creeks rising to bankfull by later today. Backcountry travelers
should be cautious as the streams and creeks can rise rapidly.
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of
the western and northern portions of the Central and Eastern
Interior with widely scattered thunderstorms along a Ruby to
Bettles to Cold Foot line today and this evening. Temperatures
cooling with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to
lower 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers as well as isolated embedded
wet thunderstorms are expected over the southern Interior today
with the the heaviest showers and best chances for wetting rain in
the Alaska Range, south and southwest of Fairbanks. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop again today mainly to the north of a
Russian Mission to Manley Hot Springs to Eagle line and widely
scattered thunderstorms along a Ruby to Bettles to Cold Foot line.
Temperatures will be cooler the next couple of day as highs fall
into the 60s to lower 70s for most areas. Relative Humidity values
will be higher the next couple days as well with minimum values
in the 30 to 40 percent range. Overnight Relative Humidity
recovery will be good the next few nights.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A weather system moving west across the area will today will bring
some heavy rainfall to the north slopes of the Alaska Range
today into Friday morning. Rainfall amounts around one inch will
be possible and will produce rises in the drainages flowing out of
the range with some of the streams and creeks rising to bankfull
by late Thursday. Backcountry travelers should be cautious as the
streams and creeks can rise rapidly. Locally mudslides will be
possible in steep terrain. There are currently no concerns with
the mainstem river north of the Alaska Range. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

CCC JUN 21