Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

992 
FZAK51 PAFG 142203
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-151400-
203 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1021 mb high in the Beaufort Sea will move to Banks Island
tonight and E of Banks Island Tue. A 997 mb low moving N into the
Western Chukchi Sea will continue to move N dragging a weather 
front across the Western Arctic Tue, the low then moves E across 
the high Arctic as high pressure builds over the Coast with a 1018
mb high near Prudhoe Bay Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ225-151400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
203 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-151400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
203 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-151400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
203 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Fog and freezing 
fog.
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-151400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
203 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Fog and freezing 
fog.
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-151400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
203 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

717 
FZAK51 PAFG 151152
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-160215-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 mb low moving N into the Western Chukchi Sea will continue 
to move N dragging a weather front over the West Coast this
morning. High pressure will start building in with clearing by 
this evening.

$$

PKZ225-160215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-160215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-160215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-160215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-160215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

757 
FZAK51 PAFG 152339
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
339 PM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-161400-
339 PM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 988 mb is 300 nm NE of Wrangel Island and will move NE across
the Arctic to the Northern Beaufort Sea as high pressure builds
over the Arctic Coast with a 1021 mb high 50 nm N of Kaktovik Wed
afternoon. High pressure will extend W from the high over the
Arctic Coast. 

$$

PKZ225-161400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
339 PM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-161400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
339 PM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-161400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
339 PM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-161400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
339 PM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt becoming SW. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-161400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
339 PM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

723 
FZAK51 PAFG 161214
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 AM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-170215-
414 AM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure over the Beaufort Sea will build today across the
Coast and expand west into the Chukchi Sea by this afternoon.

$$

PKZ225-170215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
414 AM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-170215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
414 AM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-170215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
414 AM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog.
.FRI...E winds 5 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-170215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
414 AM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-170215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
414 AM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

218 
FZAK51 PAFG 162231
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-171400-
231 PM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1021 mb high 50 nm N of Kaktovik will move to 200 nm N of
Demarcation Point by Thu afternoon with high pressure extending W
over the Central and Northwest Arctic Coasts. Low pressure will
push N over the Arctic Plain tonight and over the offshore waters
by Fri evening. 

$$

PKZ225-171400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
231 PM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-171400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
231 PM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-171400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
231 PM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog.
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-171400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
231 PM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog.
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-171400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
231 PM AKDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1254 PM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Not much change from yesterday, for the Central and
Eastern Interior and north to the Eastern Arctic Plain, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms and showers this evening and again
Monday. Temperatures rising in the Interior into the 70s and 80s
for Monday. A weather front has moved to the West Coast spreading
showers to the coastal areas and some clouds to the inland areas.
The Arctic continue to be a challenge with Cloudy conditions and
periods of dense fog.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 13/12Z solutions are in very good agreement on
holding the ridge over the state through next weekend even though
there are some minor differences. A couple waves moving east
across the Arctic may impact the solutions more that they are
indicating, so will keep a watch on them. There is agreement on a
system moving north up the western flank of the ridge next Sunday
night and Monday that will bring the next major change. At 13/15Z
surface solutions initialized well against the local analysis.
Convective indicies are fair to good the next couple day. The big
question is how much will the ridging aloft suppress convection.
Lifted Indicies range from +1 to -3, and CAPE values range up to
around 1200 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity will generally be east of
Tanana and extend from the Eastern Arctic Plain south to the
Alaska Range. For precipitation will be going with an equal blend,
but will be filling in some of the holes to capture the isolated
to scattered thunderstorms and showers. 850 hpa temperatures
rising into the teens above the next 3 to 4 days east of Ruby, and
will be above 0C for the rest of the forecast area, so surface
temperatures will be rising. Going with an equal blend for winds
today through Monday. Will need to make some adjustments to the
winds near the Alaska Range Passes for Monday evening as the
thermal trough sets up along the north slopes of the range and
winds will kick up and be gusting to around 25 mph.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging is building in over the state with a
559 dam high over Denali this afternoon, and ridging extending
northeast to Banks Island, and southwest over Bristol Bay, then
south over the Pacific. The low in the northwest Territories has
moved to 200 nm west of the MacKenzie Delta at 548 dam and is
starting to move northeast. In the Arctic the low that was over
the Bering Strait for the longest time is exiting to the north and
is 500 nm north of Oliktok Point. In the Bering Sea 536 dam low
is just south of the Gulf of Anadyr and is moving northeast, with
a trough extending south to a 541 dam low 300 nm south of the
Aleutians that is moving east. A broad area of lower heights
remains off the Canadian and Pacific Northwest Coasts with a 548
dam center 500 nm west of Coos Bay, OR. Ridging will continue to
build and expand over mainland Alaska with a 564 dam high over
Central and another over Denali Monday afternoon. Ridging will
extend north over 150W, and south over Kodiak Island and 150W. The
low to the west will move over the Chukotsk Peninsula at 533 dam
with a strong shortwave extending southwest from the low, while
the low south of the Aleutians will move to 250 nm south of Dutch
Harbor. Broad area of low heights remains off the Canadian Coast
with a 551 dam low 200 nm west of Vancouver Island. Tuesday
afternoon the ridging will lie over the Beaufort Sea, then
northeast to southwest over the state to Nunivak Island with a 567
dam center over Venetie. The low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will
move over the Western Arctic 300 nm northeast of Wrangel Island
with the shortwave moving over the Northwest Arctic Coast and the
Bering Strait. Troughing will remain to the south with the low off
Vancouver Island moving to 400 nm south of Yakutat at 553 dam. A
wave moving around the low will extend east over British Columbia
that will be moving over the southeast Interior later in the week.
At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming over mainland Alaska and the 0C
isotherm has been pushed west and northwest of the mainland. A
dome of warm air with temperatures near +10C continues to develop
in the Southeast Interior and temperatures will warm to around
+13C by Monday afternoon, and +16C by Tuesday afternoon. The +10C
isotherm will lie from Oliktok Point to Bettles to Minchumina by
Monday afternoon and hold there into Wednesday.

Surface...Weak low pressure across the Interior between the ranges
this afternoon. The thermal trough lies from Eagle to the Eastern
Brooks Range and a second branch lies from Eagle to Fairbanks to
Galena. A 1018 mb high is 150 nm north of Utqiagvik. A 997 mb low
has moved to 200 nm west of St Lawrence Island, and a 997 mb low
has moved to Atka. High pressure remains over the Northeast
Pacific extending north over the southwest mainland, Kenai
Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. Monday afternoon the high in
the Arctic will be in the Central Beaufort Sea at 1020 mb, while
weak high pressure will extends south over the Central and Eastern
Interior to a 1018 mb high 400 nm south of Prince William Sound.
Low pressure associated with the low to the west will push over
the West Coast with a 998 mb low near St Lawrence Island, and a
999 mb low 300 nm south of Dutch Harbor. The thermal trough will
lie from the AlCan Border crossing to Delta Junction to
Minchumina with a second branch extending north along the AlCan
Border to the Eastern Brooks Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A weather front will spread
showers over the Northwest Arctic Coast tonight, but stays west of
Utqiagvik. Low clouds and fog will continue to be an issue from
Utqiagvik east with areas of dense fog along the coast. In the
Plains some clearing will bring warmer temperatures, and in the
Eastern Plains some isolated thunderstorms again today.
Inland temperatures much warmer with less clouds so the plains
will see highs in the 60s today and around 70 Monday, while the
Brooks Range will have highs around 60 today and in the mid to
upper 60s Monday. Along the coast highs will be in the upper 30s
to mid 40s today and Monday. Areas of fog along the coast with
visibility reduced to less than one half mile at times. Winds
east at 5 to 15 mph tonight, with winds becoming southwest to the
west of Wainwright Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...A weather front is spreading
showers up the coast and showers will continue into early Tuesday
before tapering off as the low moves into the Arctic. Quiet in the
inland areas around the Middle Yukon Valley and the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley through Monday as high pressure builds into the
area. High temperatures continue warming in those inland areas and
will be in the upper 60s to around 70 today and the low to mid 70s
Monday. Along the coast high will only reach the 40s to around 50
with the cloudy conditions and showers. On St Lawrence Island
temperatures will be in the mid 30s to around 40. Winds will be
generally light and variable east of the Nulato Hills, while winds
along the coast will be turning from the southeast to
south as the low moves up the coast. Winds will be increasing
along the coast to 10 to 20 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms and showers this evening, and again Monday, but
Monday they will mostly be east of Fairbanks. Winds light and
variable, but some gusty winds to 25 mph can be expected with
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will also produce small hail and
brief downpours. Rainfall of around one half inch is possible as a
thunderstorm goes directly over an area. High temperatures in the
70s, to around 80 today, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
on Monday. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Winds
variable to 10 mph. Winds will kick up a bit Monday afternoon and
evening south of Delta Junction gusting to 25 mph out of the
south.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft hanging on over
the state with warmer and drier conditions and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms and showers in the afternoons and
evenings. A low moving up the western flank of the ridge aloft
will spread showers north up the West Coast Sunday and Monday and
will increase chance of Thunderstorms in the Western Interior. A
low will bring some showers to the Northwest Arctic Coast Thursday
then some clearing as high pressure over the Interior pushes
north over the Arctic Coast.

&&

.Fire Weather...Isolated to scattered wet thunderstorm activity
mainly east of Fairbanks this evening expect less coverage of
wet thunderstorms Monday to the southeast of Fairbanks. The
thermal trough lies from Eagle to the Eastern Brooks Range and a
second branch lies from Eagle to Fairbanks to Galena. A weather
front will spread showers north up the West Coast today and
tonight, without much making it into the Middle Yukon Valley.
Temperatures will be warming into the middle of next week with
highs in the Central and Eastern around 80 Monday through
Wednesday. Many locations will see their warmest temperatures so
far this year. Relative Humidity values in the 20s and 30s for
most areas with a few locations falling into the teens. Overnight
Relative Humidity recovery will be fair tonight, but becomes poor
starting Monday and continues poor through most of the week. Near
Red Flag conditions Monday evening south of Delta Junction.

&&

.Hydrology...Yukon River in Canada running near bankfull, but the
gage at Eagle remains well below action stage. Most interior
rivers are showing some diurnal rises and falls as snowmelt
continues at higher elevations, but they continue to run low.
Breakup continues in the Arctic with no known issues. For the
latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUN 21