Brisk Wind Advisory 191, NWS Fairbanks, AK

717 
FZAK51 PAFG 151152
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-160215-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 mb low moving N into the Western Chukchi Sea will continue 
to move N dragging a weather front over the West Coast this
morning. High pressure will start building in with clearing by 
this evening.

$$

PKZ225-160215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-160215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-160215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-160215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-160215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Nice summery day for most of the Interior today and
tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms east of Fairbanks and the
Elliott/Dalton Highways this evening, then mainly along the AlCan
Border Tuesday. Temperatures warming into the 70s to mid 80s this
evening and Tuesday in the Interior. Will remain cool on the West
Coast as a weather front will continue to bring clouds and showers
to the area through Tuesday. The Arctic will see a mix of weather
with showers from Utqiagvik west, and some clearing to the east.
Temperatures in the Arctic will be warmer, but warmest east of
Utqiagvik and in the Plains where temperatures will rise into the
60s and 70 over the next couple days.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Not much new guidance to work with today so will lean on
the previous solutions for the forecast since they showed good
agreement through the short term and the midrange yesterday.
Convective indicies are fair to good the next couple day with most
activity east of Fairbanks and the Dalton Highway. Lifted
Indicies range from +1 to -3, and CAPE values range up to around
1200 J/kg. A wave moving around a low in the Gulf of Alaska will
bring increased thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday into
Thursday, but with the lack of new model information will limit it
to scattered for now. Going with an equal blend of the solutions
we have, but will be filling in some of the holes to capture the
isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers to the east. 850
hpa temperatures are still on the rise and will be around +16C at
their warmest Tuesday. Will need to make some local adjustment to
the winds, primarily south of Delta Junction to capture the
thermal low kicking the winds up this evening.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging continues to build with a 564 dam
high over Denali and a 564 dam high over the Upper Yukon Flats.
Troughing to the west with a 533 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr
that is moving north, and a 541 dam low that is 200 nm south of
Dutch Harbor moving southeast. To the east of the ridge a 551 dam
low that was over the Northwest Territories is moving northeast,
and a 552 dam low is 150 nm west of the Queen Charlotte Islands.
Tuesday afternoon the ridging over the state will be anchored by a
567 dam high over Chalkyitsik with ridging pushing southwest over
St Matthew Island. The low that was over the Gulf of Anadyr will
be 300 nm northeast of Wrangel Island at 528 dam, a 551 dam low
will be southwest of the Gulf of Anadyr, a 546 dam low will be
over Adak, and 540 dam low will be 400 nm south of Chignik, while
the low near the Queen Charlotte Islands will be 150 nm west of
Sitka with an inverted trough extending northeast over Watson Lake
YT. Wednesday afternoon the will be moving off to the northeast
with the 567 dam high over the Northwest Territories and ridging
extending west over the Brooks Range and Chukchi Sea, and
southwest over the Lower Yukon Delta and the Pribilofs. The low
that was over the Western Arctic will be over the Northern
Beaufort Sea as it moves east over 80N. Weak troughing will
persist over the Western Bering Sea, as the low near Adak moves
southeast to 200 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor while the low south
of Chignik will move to 600 nm south of Cordova at 550 dam and the
low near Sitka will move over the Central Gulf of Alaska at 557
dam. The inverted trough will rotate east to lie over Tok to
Dawson YT, and a second trough will move to lie from Yakutat to
Carmacks YT. At 850 hpa...Large dome of warm air has moved over
the Eastern Brooks Range, and the Central and Eastern Interior
with temperatures near +14C from Fairbanks east. The -10C isotherm
lies from Kaktovik to Anaktuvuk Pass to Ambler to McGrath and
south of the Alaska Range today. By Tuesday afternoon the +10C
isotherm will lie from Deadhorse to Bettles to Nikolai and south
of the Alaska Range with temperatures near +16C over the Eastern
Interior.

Surface...Ill defined pressure pattern over the state with high
pressure to the northeast with a 1021 mb center near Banks Island,
a 997 mb low moving north into the Chukchi Sea with the associated
weather front moving over the West Coast. A 1000 mb low is 300 nm
south of Sand Point, with a 1018 mb high 300 nm south of Prince
William Sound, and a 1011 mb low 200 nm southwest of Sitka. Weak
leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range is associated with
thermal trough that also extends north along the AlCan Border.
Tuesday afternoon not much change in the pattern over the state
as the thermal trough remains along the AlCan Border. The high
near Banks Island will move east of the island, while the low
in the Chukchi Sea will be 300 nm northeast of Wrangel Island.
Weak high pressure will move into the Northeast Bering Sea with
low pressure over the Eastern Aleutians and the Western Alaska
Peninsula.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Showers from Utqiagvik west
tonight as a low moves north across the Western Arctic tonight,
then east across the Northern Arctic Tuesday. Isolated
thunderstorms again today in the Eastern Alaska Range. Winds
along the coast generally east at 5 to 15 mph will become
southwest at 10 to 20 mph from Utqiagvik west Tuesday. Winds
inland will be variable to 10 mph. Inland temperatures much
warmer with less clouds so the plains will see highs in the 60s
to around 70 today and in the mid 60s to mid 70 Tuesday, while
the Brooks Range see highs in the 60s today and Tuesday. Along
the coast highs will be in the 40s today and upper 40s to around
60 Tuesday with the warmest temperatures east of Utqiagvik.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers will continue, mainly
along the coast, but may move into the Upper Noatak and Kobuk
Valleys as the front continues to drag north, then east across the
Arctic. The Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys will
generally be dry, but with some clouds. High temperatures
continue warming in those inland areas and will be in the low to
mid 70s Monday and the mid to upper 70s Tuesday. Along the coast
high will only reach the 40s to around 50 with the cloudy
conditions and showers today and Tuesday, but warm to mostly 50s
by Wednesday. On St Lawrence Island temperatures will be in the
mid 30 to around 40. Winds picking up a bit along the coastal
areas to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest Tuesday,
while winds in the inland areas will be 5 to 15 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms and showers this evening mainly east of Fairbanks
and the Elliott/Dalton Highways. Mostly clear in the Central
Interior. Much the same Tuesday with most thunderstorm activity
confined to areas near the AlCan Border. Winds generally light and
variable, but some south winds kicking up this evening to the
south of Delta Junction could produce near Red Flag Conditions in
combination with the warm and dry day we have. Those winds will
diminish late this evening. Thunderstorms may produce small hail
and brief downpours. High temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
today through Wednesday. Overnight lows will be quite warm as
well with lows across most of the area in the 50s.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft hanging on over
the northern half of the state with warmer and drier conditions
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers in the
afternoons and evenings. Troughing to the south extends from the
Aleutians to the Gulf of Alaska. As the ridging holds a wave will
move around the low in the Gulf over the Alaska Range and
southern Interior Friday, with a low moving over the southwest
mainland Saturday. Temperatures will be warming on the Arctic
Coast and Plain with slightly cooler temperatures south of the
Brooks Range.

&&

.Fire Weather...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers
this evening mainly east of Fairbanks and the Elliott/Dalton
Highways, with showers continuing on the West Coast. Winds
generally light and variable from the Nulato Hills east, but some
south winds kicking up this evening to the south of Delta Junction
could produce near Red Flag Conditions in combination with the
warm and dry day we have. High temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s
today through Wednesday. Overnight lows will be quite warm as well
with lows across most of the area in the 50s. Overnight Relative
Humidity recovery will be poor through Thursday. A wave moving
around a low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring increased
thunderstorm activity to the Central and Eastern Interior
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...Yukon River in Canada is near bankfull, but the gage
at Eagle remains well below action stage. Most interior rivers
have diurnal rises and falls as snowmelt continues but they are
running below normal. In the Arctic there are no issues. For the
latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUN 21