Small Craft Advisory 192, NWS Fairbanks, AK

844 
FZAK52 PAFG 062333
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
333 PM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-071430-
333 PM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1012 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will weaken as it moves
S tonight. High pressure will build over the Bering Strait Sun. 

$$

PKZ200-071430-
Norton Sound-
333 PM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-071430-
Dall Point to Wales-
333 PM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-071430-
Kotzebue Sound-
333 PM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-071430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
333 PM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 PM AKDT Fri Nov 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The main issue in the short term is blowing snow along the
Beaufort Sea Coast. Blowing snow will continue this evening and
will taper off early on Saturday as the winds diminish. Elsewhere
breezy northerly winds will continue tonight through the Bering
Strait with snow showers for the northwest Arctic. A system moving
in from the southeast will bring light snow to the Fairbanks area
this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 05/12Z models generally initialized well when compared to
observational data. The models are in decent agreement in the
short term. We did not make too many changes to the inherited
forecast. We did bump up the PoPs over the Interior slightly for
this evening.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough currently stretches from the Chukotsk
Peninsula southeastward over Bristol Bay. Southerly flow currently
dominates over most of the forecast area with a ridge stretching
from the Yukon Territory into the Beaufort Sea. Generally
southerly flow will persist over much of the forecast area for
Saturday. As we go into early next week, 850 mb temperatures over
the Interior will decrease as an upper low moves over the area.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A shortwave will push over the Fairbanks area from the southeast,
and will over the Central Interior overnight. As this disturbance
moves over the area, we expect light snow. Less than one inch of
snow expected. There will be chances for snow Saturday and Sunday.
Highs mainly in the 20s are expected over the weekend with lows
in the teens to single digits above zero. Winds over the Interior
will generally be light, and will be mainly from the east.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Strong easterly winds are currently occuring along the Beaufort
Sea Coast. Wind gusts of 50 mph will continue this evening
resulting in blowing snow that will reduce the visibility to one
half mile or less at times. We issued Winter Weather Advisories
for the Beaufort Sea Coast due to the blowing snow. Winds will die
down from west to east along the coast tonight. The wind
direction will become westerly by Saturday evening as a surface
low currently over the west coast moves north over the Chukchi
Sea. The Chukchi Sea Coast will see snow showers at times through
the weekend. Highs will be in the upper teens to lower 20s over
the weekend. Lows will be in the teens tonight with lows in the
single digits Saturday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow showers will continue along the West Coast tonight through
Saturday night. The snowfall will taper off on Sunday. Some spots
will end up seeing a few inches of snow through Saturday evening.
The heaviest snow over the next 24 hours is expected on the north
side of the Seward Peninsula. Gusty northerly winds will continue
tonight through the Bering Strait. Winds in this area will
diminish on Saturday as a surface low that is currently near
Kivalina tracks to the north tonight and Saturday. A cooling trend
in temperatures is expected over the weekend. Highs Saturday will
be in the 20s with some spots only seeing highs in the teens on
Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will only be in the low teens with
single digits in spots.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
A cooler airmass aloft will move into the Interior early next
week. This will lead to a decreasing trend in temperatures,
although there is a lot of model differences in the details at
the moment. At the moment most of Northern Alaska looks to see
limited precipitation during the extended period.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ500.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

NOV 21