Brisk Wind Advisory 210, NWS Fairbanks, AK

999 
FZAK51 PAFG 070954
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 AM AKDT Sun Nov 7 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-080215-
154 AM AKDT Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure builds over the Beaufort Sea through Tue. A trough
of low pressure forms near the Lisburne Peninsula tonight and
persists through Tue.

$$

PKZ225-080215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
154 AM AKDT Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing
fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-080215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
154 AM AKDT Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-080215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
154 AM AKDT Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-080215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
154 AM AKDT Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-080215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
154 AM AKDT Sun Nov 7 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

163 
FZAK51 PAFG 072343
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-081515-
243 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure builds over the Beaufort Sea through Tue. A trough
of low pressure forms near the Lisburne Peninsula tonight and
persists through Tue.

$$

PKZ225-081515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
243 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-081515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
243 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-081515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
243 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-081515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
243 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-081515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
243 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
409 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low is bringing gale force east winds to the Arctic Coast
with wraparound gale force northwest winds into the NW Arctic,
especially across the NW Seward Peninsula. This low departs to the
north today, ending those conditions. The next low of interest
will bring widespread light snow to the Interior later today
through tonight, with lingering snow showers into Sunday. A cold
upper trough will bring clearing skies and colder temps, with the
first possible below zero readings around Fairbanks coming Monday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An amplified pattern persists over the region as a very large
negative tilt trough stretches from Wrangel Island to the West
Coast to the Gulf of Alaska, and even farther south to the NE
Pacific coast. A 540 dam upper high is positioned over the N
Yukon, with several wave disturbances in southeast flow tracking
north across the state. A more prominent one is now moving north
toward the Arctic Coast, with a very impressive cirrus shield
coming off the Brooks Range, a signature of classic mountain wave
dynamics. This is also inducing lee troughing, and gale force
easterly winds, with gale force northwest winds over the NW Seward
Peninsula.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in good agreement with the
general sensible weather pattern into next week with very little
discrepancy. The one issue they are still having is the subtle
shortwave trough which moves from the Yukon into the Interior
tomorrow, and just how much snow and where, exactly. Overall the
general idea was to blend all the guidance to depict what we
expect with a broad area of light snow over much of the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A broad area of light snow over the Central Interior and Upper
Koyukuk this morning will gradually end this afternoon. Another
low from the Yukon will move northwest across the Interior,
spreading accumulating light snow this afternoon through tonight,
although snow showers will linger into Sunday. Expect a broad
swath of 0.5-1.5" of snow.

Thereafter, the main trend will be clearing skies as northeast
winds increase as an arctic trough ushers in colder temps
beginning Sunday evening with temps dropping into the negative
range by Monday night in colder valleys. Expect gusty winds over
the higher terrain Monday and Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A low hanging right over Kivalina is continuing to support
northwest winds over the coast along with widespread snow showers.
Light snowfall is also falling over the Interior associated with a
remnant frontal zone. The upper low responsible for this pattern
breaks down today and tonight with snow showers lingering the
longest near the front, over the Yukon Valley and Western Brooks
Range. The pattern shifts on Monday and Tuesday as the shower
onshore flow ends with dry offshore northeast flow and clearing
skies.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Very strong lee trough and east winds into the 50 mph range
continue over Barter Island, but have let up significantly
elsewhere as the lee trough begins to depart as an ejecting
surface low. Expect an abrupt end to east winds everywhere,
except lingering in the 20-30 mph range at Barter Island to
Demarcation Point through late this evening. Light snow over the
Brooks Range continues with another round of accumulating snow
coming late this evening through tomorrow morning, with around an
inch possible.

Thereafter, the pattern becomes rather benign as an arctic high
builds in, which means cooling temps and likely fog patches.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The numerical weather models and global ensemble guidance are all
showing the same pattern through most of the extended, which will
be dominated by a cold arctic high building into the Interior from
the Yukon. 850 temps will drop to the coldest of the late
fall/early winter, with values of around -13 to -17C for most of
the Mainland Tuesday through Thursday. This will usher in the
coldest valley temps of the year, mostly clear skies, and dry
weather with the exceptions of coastal areas where there is always
a chance for ocean-effect snow showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

NOV 21