Small Craft Advisory 186, NWS Fairbanks, AK

513 
FZAK52 PAFG 032228
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
228 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-041400-
228 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure over the West Coast will slowly move inland as high
pressure builds over Chukotka. Strong NE to N winds will persist 
in the outer coastal areas through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ200-041400-
Norton Sound-
228 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-041400-
Dall Point to Wales-
228 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy 
freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-041400-
Kotzebue Sound-
228 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 5 kt becoming NE. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-041400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
228 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing 
spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Nov 21

213 
FZAK52 PAFG 041031
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-050215-
231 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 mb low over Bristol Bay will slowly move north over the 
West Coast Thursday as high pressure builds over Chukotka. Strong
NE to N winds will persist in the outer coastal areas through Sat
morning.

$$

PKZ200-050215-
Norton Sound-
231 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-050215-
Dall Point to Wales-
231 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-050215-
Kotzebue Sound-
231 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-050215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
231 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Nov 21

519 
FZAK52 PAFG 042224
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
224 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-051500-
224 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 mb low over Bristol Bay will slowly move north over the West 
Coast as high pressure builds over Chukotka. Strong NE to N winds 
will persist in the outer coastal areas through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ200-051500-
Norton Sound-
224 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-051500-
Dall Point to Wales-
224 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
EVENING... 
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-051500-
Kotzebue Sound-
224 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-051500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
224 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
EVENING... 
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY 
MORNING... 

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

MV Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
412 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Active pattern continues with gusty northerly winds and snow
showers in the Bering Sea and through the Bering Strait as well as
light snow and blowing snow along the Eastern North Slope as a
weak low pressure system deepens as it pulls north into the
Beaufort Sea tonight and Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies with
occasional light snow or flurries will continue over the
Western and Central Interior today and tonight. A weak ridge
aloft building over the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday
will help diminish cloud cover Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will slowly cool through the weekend and into early next week to
more seasonal normals with hi temperatures in the Interior in the
teens and low temperatures in the single digits to near zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 3/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and upper level observations and verified well
against the 06z surface analysis. Model spread remains minimal
through the weekend and does not exhibit significant spread until
the middle of next week.

Aloft at 500 mb broad troughing continues over the Bering Sea and
Mainland Alaska while an upper level ridge remains well entrenched
over the Northwest Territories. The trough will remain in place
over the West Coast of Alaska into Friday as a weak ridge aloft
builds north over the Eastern and Central Interior Thursday and
Friday. The pattern amplifies with the ridge over the Northwest
Territories strengthening and pushing north as well as a ridge
that builds north and strengthens over the Western Bering Sea at
the same time as the trough over Western Alaska sharpens but
weakens slightly through the weekend. Temperatures at 850 mb over
Fairbanks currently around 1 below celsius will hold steady
Thursday and Friday but begin to fall over the weekend. 850 mb
temperatures over Fairbanks will drop to around 8 below on
Saturday and around 10 below on Sunday. 850 mb temperatures
continue to drop Monday to around 12 below celsius and 15 below
celsius on Tuesday. Well above to above temperatures of the last
week will drop to seasonal levels by late in the weekend and at or
slightly below normal by early next week with high temperatures
struggling to reach the teens and lows dropping into the single
digits above and below zero over the interior.

On the surface a 983 mb low near 80N and the dateline will
continue to weaken and mover northwest. A 989 mb low over Bristol
Bay will continue to weaken and push south and east into the
Northwestern Gulf of Alaska today and into Thursday. Gusty
northerly winds will continue through the Bering Strait and
through the northern Bering Sea. Minor water level elevations are
possible along the northern coastline of St Lawrence Island with
the long duration northerly winds. A weak low will develop over
the Eastern North Slope today and will deepen to around 988 mb
this evening as it pushes north and east of the McKenzie Delta on
Thursday. Gusty northwest winds and light snow will bring reduced
visibilities in snow and blowing snow over the Eastern North Slope
Wednesday night and Thursday. Stratus, light snow and flurries
will continue over the Western Interior the next several days
however as an upper level ridge builds north over the Central and
Eastern Interior Thursday expect clouds to diminish. As winds and
clouds diminish over Interior Valley locations expect strong
overnight inversions to develop Thursday night and Friday night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Prolonged northerly winds
through the Bering Strait and into the Northern Bering Sea will
likely produce elevated water levels in the 1 to 2 foot range
above normal high tide levels along the northern coast of St
Lawrence into Saturday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.
&&

CCC NOV 21