Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
421 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Active pattern continues with gusty northerly winds and snow
showers in the Bering Sea and through the Bering Strait as well as
light snow and blowing snow along the Eastern North Slope as a
weak low pressure system deepens as it pulls north into the
Beaufort Sea tonight and Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies with
occasional light snow or flurries will continue over the
Western and Central Interior today and tonight. A weak ridge
aloft building over the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday
will help diminish cloud cover Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will slowly cool through the weekend and into early next week to
more seasonal normals with hi temperatures in the Interior in the
teens and low temperatures in the single digits to near zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 3/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and upper level observations and verified well
against the 06z surface analysis. Model spread remains minimal
through the weekend and does not exhibit significant spread until
the middle of next week.

Aloft at 500 mb broad troughing continues over the Bering Sea and
Mainland Alaska while an upper level ridge remains well entrenched
over the Northwest Territories. The trough will remain in place
over the West Coast of Alaska into Friday as a weak ridge aloft
builds north over the Eastern and Central Interior Thursday and
Friday. The pattern amplifies with the ridge over the Northwest
Territories strengthening and pushing north as well as a ridge
that builds north and strengthens over the Western Bering Sea at
the same time as the trough over Western Alaska sharpens but
weakens slightly through the weekend. Temperatures at 850 mb over
Fairbanks currently around 1 below celsius will hold steady
Thursday and Friday but begin to fall over the weekend. 850 mb
temperatures over Fairbanks will drop to around 8 below on
Saturday and around 10 below on Sunday. 850 mb temperatures
continue to drop Monday to around 12 below celsius and 15 below
celsius on Tuesday. Well above to above temperatures of the last
week will drop to seasonal levels by late in the weekend and at or
slightly below normal by early next week with high temperatures
struggling to reach the teens and lows dropping into the single
digits above and below zero over the interior.

On the surface a 983 mb low near 80N and the dateline will
continue to weaken and move northwest. A 989 mb low over Bristol
Bay will continue to weaken and push south and east into the
Northwestern Gulf of Alaska today and into Thursday. Gusty
northerly winds will continue through the Bering Strait and
through the northern Bering Sea. Minor water level elevations are
possible along the northern coastline of St Lawrence Island with
the long duration northerly winds. A weak low will develop over
the Eastern North Slope today and will deepen to around 988 mb
this evening as it pushes north and east of the McKenzie Delta on
Thursday. Gusty northwest winds and light snow will bring reduced
visibilities in snow and blowing snow over the Eastern North Slope
Wednesday night and Thursday. Stratus, light snow and flurries
will continue over the Western Interior the next several days
however as an upper level ridge builds north over the Central and
Eastern Interior Thursday expect clouds to diminish. As winds and
clouds diminish over Interior Valley locations expect strong
overnight inversions to develop Thursday night and Friday night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Prolonged northerly winds
through the Bering Strait and into the Northern Bering Sea will
likely produce elevated water levels in the 1 to 2 foot range
above normal high tide levels along the northern coast of St
Lawrence into Saturday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.
&&

CCC NOV 21