Small Craft Advisory 184, NWS Fairbanks, AK

056 
FZAK52 PAFG 022120
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
120 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-031400-
120 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 mb low near Gambell will weaken this evening. Low pressure
over the nearshore waters will merge with low pressure over
mainland Alaska Wed as high pressure builds over Chukotka and
pushes NE across the Chukchi Sea. 

$$

PKZ200-031400-
Norton Sound-
120 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-031400-
Dall Point to Wales-
120 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt becoming N. Strongest winds W of
Gambell. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog and fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-031400-
Kotzebue Sound-
120 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-031400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
120 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

SDB Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Lots of moving parts today. Strong low will bring some
heavy snow to the southern Seward Peninsula around Nome. Low
pressure will linger over the coast through Wednesday. Strong
south flow across the Alaska Range will bring a strong moisture
feed into the Eastern Alaska Range with heavy snow in Isabel Pass
and vicinity south of Donnelly Dome. Some light snow is expected
in the Fairbanks area, but generally less than one inch through
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure in the Arctic Plain will slide
over the coast this evening, then offshore Tuesday with strong
gusty east winds developing east of Utqiagvik. Gusty winds are
also expected in Atigun Pass, and near the Alaska Range Passes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...01/12Z solutions are in reasonable agreement in the
short term, but show some divergence in the extended periods. Will
be leaning toward an equal blend for the short term, and the WPC
solutions for the later periods. Strong south flow with lots of
moisture continues across the Alaska Range, the problem is just
how much will make through the orographic lift and downsloping
into the Interior. Will lean on the conservative side, away from
the heavy handed GFS, for snowfall in the Interior, but there
will be some areas, the Eastern Alaska Range for one, that will
have some heavier snowfall. On the West Coast the same issue with
the GFS being a bit heavy handed with the QPF, so will lean more
on the NAM and ECMWF solutions. Winds do pick up a bit as leeside
troughing develops north of the Alaska Range, but expect max
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range. In the Arctic troughing
developing over the plains with high pressure offshore and over
the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range will produce some
strong pressure gradients east of Utqiagvik, will lean toward the
NAM and Canadian solutions as they bring slightly higher winds
into the area. Will put some blowing snow into those areas as
well, but do not expect extended periods of poor visibility as
falling snow will be limited to flurries.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing extends from a 491 dam low 200 nm
north of Wrangel Island southeast over Point Lay to Ruby to a 530
dam low 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island, then southeast to a 533
dam low near 40N. Troughing also extends south over the Dateline
to a 507 dam low 200 nm north of Amchitka. Ridging continues to
hold over the Central and Eastern Interior as a 567 dam high has
moved over Northeast British Columbia. By Tuesday morning the low
north of Wrangel Island will move northwest to 300 nm northwest of
Wrangel Island and the troughing that was over the Middle Yukon
will rotate over the Arctic to lie over 75N. The low near Kodiak
Island will merge with the low that was to the southeast of it as
it moves north to 400 nm south of Yakutat. The troughing in the
Bering Sea will move to lie in the vicinity of 175W as it extends
south from the low in the Arctic with a 506 dam low near Gamble
with a shortwave extending over Norton Sound, and a 512 dam low
100 nm north of Adak. Ridging will continue to push in to the
Eastern and Central Interior with 550 dam heights over the AlCan
as the high moves over the Northwest Territories and Alberta
Border south of Great Slave Lake at 566 dam. By Tuesday afternoon
the low in the Siberian Arctic will be 400 nm northwest of Wrangel
Island at 486 dam with shortwave extending east over 80N.
Troughing extending south from the low will be over Wrangel Island
to a 508 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr to a 514 dam low near
Nikolski. Several shortwave will be moving north in the flow over
the West Coast. The low in the Northeast Pacific will move over
the southern Gulf of Alaska at 523 dam. Ridging will continue to
push into the Central and Eastern Interior with 545 dam heights
over the AlCan as the high starts to merge into the primary ridge
and the ridging over the state starts to rotate to the northeast
as a strong shortwave associated with the low over the Gulf of
Alaska moves over the Southern Yukon Territory Border. By
Wednesday morning the troughing will remain to the west as the low
over the gulf weakens and merges to the west. The strong
shortwave will move north over the Central and Eastern Interior as
the ridging rotates northeast. At 850 hpa...Warm air around 0C
that was over the Central and Eastern Interior has been pushed
east as cold air pushes in from the northwest. The -10C isotherm
lies from Deadhorse to Bettles to Unalakleet to Savoonga this
afternoon and will slide back to the north as the upper level low
in the Siberian Arctic move northwest. The -10C isotherm will lie
be over the Arctic Coast the across the southern Chukchi Sea and
north of St Lawrence Island by Tuesday morning while the 0C
isotherm will be east of the AlCan. The -10C isotherm will move
north and west of the mainland by Tuesday afternoon, while
temperatures over the southern Central and Eastern Interior will
rise to around 0C and stay that way through Wednesday.

Surface...Pretty messy pressure pattern across the state with Low
pressure over the Arctic, a 1012 mb high over the Western Brooks
Range and high pressure over the Arctic Coast, a 1006 mb low over
the Eastern Brooks Range, a 1004 mb low in the Upper Yukon Flats,
a 1008 mb high in the Middle Yukon Valley with high pressure over
the Western Alaska Range, low pressure south of the Alaska Range
with a 993 mb low in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, low pressure in
the Bering Sea with a 987 mb low near St Matthew Island, and a 985
mb low north of Amchitka. Broad area of low pressure from the
Arctic to the Bering to the Gulf of Alaska. The pattern becomes a
bit clearer by Tuesday morning with low pressure over the Western
Arctic, a 1015 mb high over Prudhoe Bay and high pressure pushing
southwest into the Middle Yukon Valley and south over the Eastern
Brooks Range, low pressure to the south and west with a 986 mb low
over St Lawrence Island and a front extending southwest to a 990
mb low near Adak. A 994 mb low will develop ahead of the front and
move east of the Pribilofs. Low pressure to the south will be
anchored by a 986 mb low 400 nm south of Yakutat as the low that
was in the northern gulf weakens and moves into the Southcentral.
Tuesday afternoon low pressure will persist over the western
Arctic as the high moves to 300 nm north of Demarcation Point and
low pressure pushes east across the Arctic Plain. A strong
pressure gradient will develop across the coast east of Utqiagvik
with winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph. As the low pressure pushes
east high pressure will hold over the Interior and strengthen
over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range with a strong
pressure gradient there as well. Expect winds to increase in the
passes to gusting around 25 mph. Low pressure will remain over
the West Coast as it stretches from the Eastern Chukchi Sea to a
993 mb low over Gambell to a 989 mb low over Nunivak Island to a
993 mb low near Cold Bay.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure building over the
area through the evening as south flow continues for most of the
area. As the high pressure moves offshore the winds will turn
from the east along the coast and increase as low pressure builds
east over the plain. Winds will become light over night, then
increase to 15 to 30 mph during the day Tuesday along the coast.
Winds will also increase in the Eastern Brooks Range passes with
south gusts around 25 mph. Locally blowing snow may impact
visibility at times Tuesday. Highs in the 20s, lows in the teens.
Elevated surf is expected from Point Hope to Utqiagvik this
evening as the winds around the low in the Western Arctic ramp up
from the southwest and west.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low pressure system moving to
the coast sets its sights on the southern Seward Peninsula with
heavy snow developing around Nome and just to the north of Nome.
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Nome and vicinity. The
remainder of the area will generally be cloudy with some light
snow or flurries. Southeast to south winds do increase to 10 to 25
mph in most areas, so expect some blowing snow locally, especially
in the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound area, to impact visibility
at times. Inland areas will see less clouds and much lower chance
of snow through Tuesday. St Lawrence Island will see 2 to 4 inches
of snow through Tuesday. Highs in the teens and 20s, except
around 30 on St Lawrence Island. Lows in the single digits to the
teens.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some flurries or light
snow for most areas. A strong push of moisture across the Alaska
Range will produce some heavy snow south of Donnelly Dome through
Isabel Pass. Winds do pick up near the passes with gusts around 40
mph so blowing and drifting snow may impact the area. Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range.
Decreasing chances for snow by mid day Tuesday. Temperatures will
be cooling with highs in the lower 30s and lows in the 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...High pressure will hold over
the Central and Eastern Interior and Arctic with a low pressure
system just off the West Coast. The low will swing a front north
into the Western Interior Thursday with it lingering in the area
through Friday. Troughing developing across the Arctic Plain
Friday with increasing east winds along the coast as a low
develops in the Arctic Plain. The low will move offshore Saturday
with winds decreasing along the coast, and snow spreading east
over the coastal areas to Prudhoe Bay. A low moving near Yakutat
Saturday will send a weather front into the Eastern Interior with
snow developing in the Yukon Territory and spreading northwest to
the Eastern Brooks Range. A low will also develop over the
southwest mainland and move north into the Middle Yukon Valley
spreading snow north into the Western Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

SDB NOV 21