Gale Warning 117, NWS Fairbanks, AK

349 
FZAK51 PAFG 031220
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-040230-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 mb low near 80N and the dateline will continue to weaken 
and move northwest. A weak low will develop over the Eastern 
North Slope today and will deepen to around 988 mb this evening as
it pushes north and east of the McKenzie Delta on Thursday.

$$

PKZ225-040230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-040230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-040230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-040230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-040230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
420 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt becoming W. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
432 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system in the northern Bering Sea continue to
bring snow and gusty winds to the southern portions of the Seward
Peninsula where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until
this afternoon. A shortwave moving north over the Alaska Range and
the Central Interior continues to bring snow over the Eastern
Alaska Range where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
until this evening. Light snow will continue this morning over the
Central and Eastern Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 02/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis as well as the upper level data and verified well
against the 06z surface analysis. Model spread in minimal in both
the short term as well as the mid range. Good agreement on system
track strength and location is noted between model families and
from run to run in the extended range.

Aloft at 500 mb...an upper level trough continues over the Western
and Central Bering Sea and over Western Alaska while a strong
upper level ridge continue to the east of Alaska over the
Northwest Territories and the Yukon. The pattern will remain in
place with the trough over the Bering Sea deepening into the
Northern Pacific and the Ridge continuing to hold fast over the
Northwest Territories and Yukon through the end of the week.
Shortwaves will continue to push north through the pattern and
will bring periods of rain and snow to the West Coast and Western
Interior as well as periods of light snow over the northern
portions of the Central and Eastern Interior while drier chinook
influenced conditions influence the southern portions of the
Central and Eastern Interior. Temperatures will remain well above
normal for the Central and Eastern Interior while the west Coast
remains closer to seasonal normals.

On the surface...a 973 mb low near 75 N and along the dateline
will continue to weaken and move to the north and west. An
elongated low pressure system with multiple centers of rotation
stretches from the central Aleutian Island northward through the
Bering Strait and into the southern Chukchi Sea. These low
pressure systems will consolidate over Bristol Bay as a 988 mb low
forms on Wednesday and pushes southeast into the northwestern
Gulf of Alaska. Weak troughing will continue over the Interior
through the end of the week. This will continue the periods of
light snow or flurries as well as continue the mostly cloudy
conditions through the rest of the week. Above temperatures will
continue for the Central and Eastern Interior while more seasonal
temperatures will be found in the Western Interior and the West
Coast.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Weak high will continue to build
over the area today as south flow continues for most of the area.
As the high pressure moves offshore into the Chukchi Sea and
combined with weak low pressure moving north out of the McKenzie
Delta will produce northeast winds along the coast. Winds will
remain light this morning but will increase to 15 to 30 mph during
the day today along the coast. Winds will also increase in the
Eastern Brooks Range passes with south gusts around 25 mph.
Locally blowing snow may impact visibility at times today. Highs
in the 20s, lows in the teens.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low pressure system moving
inland over the West Coast will continue to bring upslope snow
over the southern Seward Peninsula with heavy snow continuing into
this afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Nome
and vicinity through this afternoon. The remainder of the area
will generally be cloudy with some light snow or flurries.
Southeast to south winds do increase to 10 to 25 mph in most
areas, so expect some blowing snow locally, especially in the
Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound area, to impact visibility at
times. Inland areas will see less clouds and much lower chance of
snow through today. Highs in the teens and 20s, except around 30
on St Lawrence Island. Lows in the single digits to the teens.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some flurries or light
snow for most areas. A strong push of moisture across the Alaska
Range will produce some heavy snow south of Donnelly Dome through
Isabel Pass through this evening. Winds do pick up near the
passes with gusts around 40 mph so blowing and drifting snow will
be a threat in the area. Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for the Eastern Alaska Range. Decreasing chances for snow
by mid day today. Temperatures will be cooling with highs in the
lower 30s and lows in the 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 21