Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 179, NWS Fairbanks, AK

October 30, 2021

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 30, 2021, 4:01 PM AKDT. It was in force for 46 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 30, 2021, 4:01 PM AKDT (00:01 UTC)
Expired: Nov 1, 2021, 2:13 PM AKDT
In force: 46 hr
Issued by: NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted.

547 
FZAK51 PAFG 310001
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-311430-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1005 mb low 100 NM west of Point Hope will dissipate tonight. A
1000 mb low 100 NM west of Gambell will move to Nunivak Island
tonight. A strong low over the Western Gulf of Alaska will move to
100 NM north of Point Hope as a 982 mb low by 4pm Sun, and to 600
NM northwest of Point Hope as a 974 mb low bu 4pm Mon. 

$$

PKZ225-311430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...W winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-311430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-311430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building
to 6 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-311430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-311430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

4 follow-up statements

977 
FZAK51 PAFG 311215
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-010215-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 989 mb low over Norton Sound this morning will move to Cape 
Lisburne this afternoon, moving to 200 NM NE of Wrangel Island and
deepening to 980 mb by Monday morning, continuing NW through 
Monday. 

$$

PKZ225-010215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. Freezing
fog. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-010215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-010215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-010215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-010215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

553 
FZAK51 PAFG 312251
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
251 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-011400-
251 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 987 mb low has moved near Point Lay and will continue NW to 200
nm NW of Point Lay by Mon morning as it strengthens to 982 mb. A 
trough of low pressure extending E over the Arctic Coast will move
over the offshore waters Mon morning and weak high pressure will 
develop over the coast. The low will continue NW and by Tue 
morning will be 300 nm NW of Wrangel Island as high pressure 
builds over the Eastern Arctic with a 1018 mb high near Kaktovik. 

$$

PKZ225-011400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
251 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...W winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing 
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-011400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
251 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 8 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-011400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
251 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-011400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
251 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-011400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
251 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

022 
FZAK51 PAFG 011102
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-020230-
302 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 982 mb low 200 NM NW of Point Lay will move to 150 NM NE of 
Wrangel Island by this afternoon as it deepens to 974 mb. A trough
of low pressure extending E over the offshore waters will lift NE
through this afternoon towards Banks Island. Behind the trough 
high pressure will build over the Eastern Arctic with a 1018 mb 
high near Kaktovik.

$$

PKZ225-020230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
302 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-020230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
302 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-020230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
302 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-020230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
302 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-020230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
302 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt becoming NW. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

823 
FZAK51 PAFG 012213
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-021400-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 973 mb low is 250 NM N of Wrangel Island moving NW. Low 
pressure extends E across the Arctic to a 1000 mb low 300 nm N of 
Demarcation Pt. High pressure over mainland Alaska is pushing N 
over the Arctic Coast. As the low pressure continues to slide N 
over the Arctic the high will move over the Arctic Coast Tue 
morning at 1015 mb, then to 300 nm N of Demarcation Pt by Tue 
afternoon at 1018 mb. Low pressure will develop in the Arctic 
Plain with a strong pressure gradient over the Eastern Arctic 
Coast. A low will develop over in plain Wed and move offshore.

$$

PKZ225-021400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt becoming E. Seas 6 ft subsiding to
4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy 
freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-021400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-021400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-021400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Snow.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-021400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
213 PM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Nov 21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 30, 3:16 PM AKDT, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 30, 3:16 PM AKDT, 45 minutes before

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong storm now moving north over Western Alaska will
move over NW Alaska Sun and then move into the Chukchi Sea and
restrengthen Sun PM and Mon. This is causing heavy snow over the
Western Interior that will spread northwest to portions of the
West Coast tonight, then move back east over the Western Interior
on Sun PM, before tapering off and moving east into the Eastern
Interior on Mon.

This storm is causing high winds over the Alaska Range that will
last through Sun night. This is also causing temperatures in the
30s and lower 40s over the Eastern Interior along with gusting
east winds that will last  through Sun.

This storm will cause strong south winds over the Brooks Range
tonight through Sun night and cause snow and blowing snow issues
in Brooks Range Passes through Sun night.

This storm is causing heavy snow over the Western Interior and
portions of the West Coast and Central Brooks Range that will
continue into Sun with storm totals of 6-12 inches. The heaviest
snow will be north and west of Kobuk to Galena to Shageluk today
through Sun. Expect snow to change over to rain or possibly brief
freezing rain southeast of Kobuk to Galena to Shageluk today and
tonight, with a chance of rain and freezing rain on the North
Slope east of Utqiagvik on Sun. Precipitation should change back
to all snow on Sun night and Mon.

This storm will cause northwest winds 20-30 kt and high surf
along the Chukchi Sea Coast from Shishmaref to Point Hope from
Sun PM into Mon AM. This storm will cause southwest winds 25 to
35kt and high surf along the Arctic Coast from Point Lay to Point
Barrow from late Sun night through late Mon night. There is a
chance of low visibility in blowing snow along the Arctic Coast on
Mon, but at this time it looks like the strong winds will occur
after the snow has tapering off.

A second storm moving into the Northern Bering Sea on Mon and to
the Southern Chukchi Sea on Tue will bring more stormy weather to
the West Coast Mon and Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and show similar solutions
through 4pm Sun. After that time, the NAM/ECMF and Canadian
models all deepen the low aloft/short wave over NW Alaska and the
Chukchi Sea much more than the GFS. It appears as through the
frontal wave moving north on Sun taps into very cold low level air
off of Siberia once it gets over the Chukchi Sea which should
cause this strengthening and deepening. Since the NAM deepens this
more than any other models, we prefer the NAM solution. The set
up is there for deepening aloft with the cold air to be tapped
into at low levels, and the still open water of the Chukchi Sea to
cause surface level heating and thus surface level pressure
lowering.

850 MB temperatures rise above freezing southeast of the warm
front on all models. Expect snow to change over to rain or
possibly brief freezing rain southeast of Kobuk to Galena to
Shageluk today and tonight, and on the North Slope east of
Utqiagvik on Sun. Precipitation should change back to all snow as
the cold front moves east on Sun night and Mon.

With precipitation, models show similar areal coverage and
amounts through Sun morning, then the NAM and ECMF move the precip
to the east more quickly than the GFS Sun PM into Mon and Tue.
Since the NAM and ECMF are the preferred solutions aloft, with
the NAM preferred at the surface, will use the NAM for
precipitation location and amounts, but blend in a minor portion
of the ECMF while excluding the GFS precip.

At the surface at 15Z, models all verify well at the surface.
Models show similar solutions through tonight, and then the all
models deepen the triple point low moving over NW Alaska on Sun,
with the NAM deepening it the most, the ECMF and Canadian
deepening it almost as much as the NAM, but the GFS being
significantly weaker. Since this is a set up for rapid deepening
as the low taps into the cold air of Siberia Sun, and then moves
over the warm water of the Chukchi Sea on Mon, we favor the
deepest solution, which will likely be the NAM. In fact, this set
up could well be deeper than the NAM, but we will go with the NAM
at this point in time for the surface fields and winds.

Bottom line for models is that we will generally use the NAM,
blending in the ECMF in a minor way for precip. Expect snow to
change over to rain or possibly brief freezing rain southeast of
Kobuk to Galena to Shageluk today and tonight, and on the North
Slope east of Utqiagvik on Sun. Precipitation should change back
to all snow as the cold front moves east on Sun night and Mon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Chukchi Sea Coast from Shishmaref to Point Hope will see
northwest winds 20-30 kt and high surf Sun PM into Mon AM.

Arctic Coast from Point Lay to Point Barrow will see southwest
winds 25 to 35kt and high surf along the Arctic Coast from late
Sun night through late Mon night.

High surf possible Norton Sound Coast Mon and Tue, and Southern
Chukchi Sea Coast on Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ227.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ500.
&&

JB OCT 21

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 30, 4:00 PM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFG	12 hr
Oct 30, 4:01 PM AKDT	Brisk Wind Advisory	AFG	12 hr
Oct 30, 4:01 PM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFG	35 hr
Oct 30, 4:02 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFG	4 days
Oct 31, 12:07 AM AKDT	Wind Advisory	AFG	27 hr
Oct 31, 4:15 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFG	23 hr
Oct 31, 4:15 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFG	23 hr
Oct 31, 4:15 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFG	11 hr
Oct 31, 4:15 AM AKDT	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFG	6 days

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021 Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.