Small Craft Advisory 172, NWS Fairbanks, AK

477 
FZAK51 PAFG 271018
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-280215-
218 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 992 MB low 80 NM north of Barter Island will move to 150 NM
north of Barter Island as a 1003 mb low by 4pm Wed and then
weaken. A 985 mb low 80 NM northwest of Point Hope will move to 
80 NM southwest of Point Hope as a 999 MB low by 4pm Thu.

$$

PKZ225-280215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
218 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-280215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
218 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-280215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
218 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-280215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
218 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. Seas building to 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-280215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
218 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

798 
FZAK51 PAFG 272253
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
253 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-281415-
253 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1001 mb low 100 NM north of Barter Island will weaken tonight. 
A 990 mb low 60 NM northwest of Point Hope will remain in place
and weaken to 1000 mb by Fri. 

$$

PKZ225-281415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
253 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-281415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
253 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-281415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
253 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-281415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
253 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 
1nm or less.
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-281415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
253 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1nm or less.
.THU...W winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

928 
FZAK51 PAFG 281152
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-290215-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 mb low near Point Hope will remain in place and weaken to 
1003 mb by Thu night. This low will track 160 NM north of Point 
Hope as a 1005 mb low by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ225-290215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-290215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-290215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-290215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-290215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
352 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...N winds 5 kt becoming SW. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

206 
FZAK51 PAFG 282310
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-291430-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 mb low near Point Hope will move to 100 NM north of Point 
Hope as a 1004 mb low by 4pm Fri, and to 400 NM northwest of Point
Hope as a 1010 mb low by 4pm Sat. A 1005 mb low 50 NM south of the
Bering Strait will move to the Bering Strait as a 1006 mb low by 
4pm Fri and then dissipate on Sat. A strong low will move north
along the West Coast of Alaska on Sun. 

$$

PKZ225-291430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-291430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-291430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S winds 5 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-291430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-291430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
310 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 AM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track remains well to the south of the Mainland, which
is keeping a weak pressure gradient in place. A front which
brought snow to the Interior and the North Slope has shifted
north of the Arctic Coast this morning. A closed arctic low
remains in place over the NW Arctic Borough, keeping snow showers
and blustery NW winds in place. Over the Interior, extensive
stratus and flurries have been left behind the departing front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A series of lows tracks across the NE Pacific in conjunction with
the polar jet. Upper troughing dominates the Mainland, with the
main center over the NW Arctic Borough, with a 500 hpa height of
approximately 504 dam. A shortwave trough is seen lifting
northward across the Arctic Coast, with the associated front
moving offshore. Extensive stratus is occupying the Interior with
a very weak pressure gradient in place. The surface low over the
NW Arctic is the only surface feature of interest, which is
analyzed at approximately 987 mb near Point Hope. ASCAT winds show
this low to be at gale strength on the western periphery of the
low.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in very good agreement with the
large scale pattern, but are in much less agreement with the
details regarding several low amplitude waves of energy lifting
north across the AK Range from the Gulf of AK for the next couple
days. The overall consensus is for a surface low to form over the
Yukon Flats Tuesday night and Wednesday then shift north, bringing
areas of light snowfall. For now will continue to favor a blend of
models to average out the inconsistencies and to depict widespread
light snow chances through Wednesday. Out west, a blend of models
was favored to depict the low over the Chukchi Sea as the models
are not in good agreement with the exact placement of this low
after tonight given the cold core nature of this feature.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Extensive low clouds, fog, and perhaps some flurries will persist
today, with light snow developing tonight as a subtle disturbance
aloft shifts north across the Alaska Range and from the Yukon.
Snow accumulations by Wednesday night, after the low exits north
of the Brooks Range, will be around an inch or less most places,
with 1-2" for the AK Range and the southern Brooks Range. The low
exits for Thursday with partially clearing skies, which will
result in falling temps at night and during the day.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The surface low is now pretty much parked over the Chukchi Sea
with wraparound northwest winds impacting the coast. This low will
continue to spin in place bringing coastal snow showers and
blustery NW winds early today before diminishing briefly tonight.
A separate low over the N Bering Sea will shift east into the YK
Delta bringing snow showers chances and gusty northeasterly
offshore winds Wednesday. The low over the Chukchi Sea will
continue to bring snow showers and periodic NW winds into the 30
mph range before weakening through Thursday. For the Interior,
pretty quiet weather with low stratus and periodic fog, especially
near the Yukon River.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A few lingering snow showers end this morning as the associated
weakening front moves offshore. More light snow chances move into
the Brooks Range and North Slope on Wednesday with very light snow
accumulations possible. Temps gradually cooling with weakening
gradients after today. Expect periods of dense fog to accompany
the lighter winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended forecast still looks quite active for the weekend as
Friday starts out under the influence of the arctic high and
mostly quiet weather. The flow amplifies rapidly on Friday night
as a deep Pacific low, the former remnants of a tropical system,
move into the NE Pacific and shift inland, binging the threat for
heavy snowfall over the West-Central Interior and strong chinook
flow across the Alaska Range into the Eastern Interior. The
amplified southerly flow pattern looks to continue into next
week, although model uncertainty after Sunday is very high. Stay
tuned...

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

AHSENMACHER OCT 21