Small Craft Advisory 171, NWS Fairbanks, AK

589 
FZAK52 PAFG 262224
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-271430-
224 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 mb low 80 NM northwest of Point Hope will move to 80 NM 
southwest of Point Hope as a 999 MB low by 4pm Thu, and then
weaken through Fri. A 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea will
move to the southeast Bering Sea as a 988 mb low and then continue
moving southeast.

$$

PKZ200-271430-
Norton Sound-
224 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-271430-
Dall Point to Wales-
224 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-271430-
Kotzebue Sound-
224 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-271430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
224 PM AKDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Some clearing this evening, but another low will be
moving north across the area tonight and Tuesday with flurries or
locally light snow tapering off from the south in the evening.
Snow in the Arctic tonight will taper off on the Eastern Arctic
Coast in the early morning, and around Utqiagvik by late morning
or early afternoon Tuesday. The low in the Chukchi Sea will
continue to bring showers to the Chukchi Sea coast and Kotzebue
Sound Region. Onshore flow south of the Bering Strait will also
produce some snow showers, by more widely scattered. Temperatures
will be cooling.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...25/12Z solutions are handling the short term similarly,
but moving into the extended periods the influence of Tropical
Storm Malou is creating all kinds of havoc. Will be using a blend
of the solutions, for the short term. Will be using mostly
flurries next 24 hours in the Interior, and snow showers in the
Chukchi Sea region as lake effect type showers continue.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing remains over the state as it
extends from a 502 dam low near the New Siberian Islands southeast
to a 504 dam low over the Chukchi Sea to a 515 dam low over the
Northern Gulf of Alaska. A decaying 515 dam low has moved over the
Eastern Brooks Range, and a 516 dam low south of Kodiak Island
will move east across the Northeast Pacific. Weak ridging is
pushing northeast over Bristol Bay and the southwest mainland,
while weak ridging is also pushing west over the AlCan Border,
and the Central Alaska Range. The low over the Chukchi Sea will
drift over the Western Chukchi Sea with a shortwave moving over
the West Coast, and the low over the Brooks Range will move over
Deadhorse tonight. The low over the Northern Gulf will continue to
weaken and start to move north, while the low to the south
continues to move east across the Northeast Pacific. The weak
ridging will hold on over the southwest mainland, and slide north
in the Interior over the Fortymile and Upper Yukon Flats. Tuesday
afternoon The low will remain over the Western Chukchi Sea as the
shortwave moves to lie over Point Hope to King Salmon, while the
low over Deadhorse moves to 100 nm north of Kaktovik. The low
moving over Southcentral will continue to weaken as it lifts to
the north over the Interior. By Wednesday morning the shortwave
moving around the low over the Chukchi Sea will lie over Cape
Lisburne to McGrath to Kodiak City and the low moving into the
Interior will merge into the shortwave as it moves over the Alaska
Range. Another low will develop over the Northern Bering Sea
Tuesday night and move over St Matthew Island Wednesday morning.
At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior are
in the 0C to -10C range, but cold air is being pulled around the
upper level low over the Chukchi Sea and by Wednesday afternoon
the -10C isotherm will lie from Prudhoe Bay to Fort Yukon to
Delta Junction then southeast with temperatures around -15C over
the West Coast.

Surface...Low pressure still dominant across the state, but high
pressure is pushing in over the southwest mainland and across the
southern half of the Interior. A 986 mb low near Point Hope will
be swinging a front to the coast as the low moves into the Western
Chukchi Sea tonight. The low will then meander around in the
Chuckchi Sea through the remainder of the week as it weakens. A
997 mb low will develop along the front in the Northern Bering Sea
and move to St Matthew Island by Tuesday evening, and to Nunivak
Island by Wednesday morning. Low pressure in the Northeast Pacific
and Gulf of Alaska will persist with a 980 mb low in the Northern
Gulf, and a 975 mb low moving east across along 52N. By Tuesday
afternoon low pressure on the Eastern Arctic Coast will be
lifting to the north over the offshore waters as weak high
pressure will lie from Bristol Bay to the Lower Yukon Delta to the
Eastern Brooks Range. An inverted trough will extend from the
Northeast Pacific across the Northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince
William south into the Interior across the Middle Tanana Valley
with not much change through Wednesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Snow for most areas through the
night will taper off Tuesday along the Eastern Arctic Coast and in
the Eastern Brooks Range. Snowfall of around 1 inch tonight. Winds
northeast to southeast at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with south
winds to 10 mph inland and in the Brooks Range. Highs generally
in the 20s to around 30, with lows in the teens and 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low will remain in Chukchi Sea
and will continue to swing snow showers the the Seward Peninsula
and the Kotzebue Sound region. Water levels in Kotzebue sound may
rise a bit, but do not expect any issues as it is mostly ice
covered now. Water may be forced on top of the ice through any
holes or fissures. Surf around Shishmaref will also remain
elevated, but no impacts expected at this time. Snowfall will be
heaviest from Selawik north tonight with up to 2 inches possible.
Snow showers will continue through at least Tuesday as the low
remains in the area. As the low moves to the Western Chuckchi Sea
winds will turn more from the west and southwest. Strongest winds
will be around Shishmaref at 20 to 30 mph gusting to 40 mph this
evening, diminishing to around 20 mph by midnight. Winds south of
the Bering Strait northwest 10 to 20 mph, while inland areas winds
will be south to west to 10 mph. High temperatures in the 20s and
lower 30s, while lows will be in the teens and 20s. Temperatures
will be cooling through the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with flurries. Locally
accumulations of less than one half inch are possible tonight.
There is a slightly better chance of snow Tuesday afternoon and
evening, but most areas will see mainly flurries. Winds generally
light and variable. Highs in the mid 20s to upper 30s, with lows
in the teens and 20s above. Temperatures will be cooling the
remainder of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The upper level low over the
Chukchi Sea will hang on moving over the Chukotsk Peninsula near
the Bering Strait. Several shortwave will move around the low
bringing periods of snow to most of the forecast area Friday, then
to areas west of Tanana and north of the Yukon River as weak
ridging pushes north into the Central Interior Saturday into
Sunday. Southwest flow will push back into the Interior Sunday
with increasing chance of snow Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures will be warming as south flow develop over most of
the forecast area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ500.

Gale Warning for PKZ220.

&&

SDB OCT 21