Small Craft Advisory 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

865 
FZAK52 PAFG 172234
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-181430-
234 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 975 mb low over Kodiak Island will continue to push northeast 
into the Northern Gulf of Alaska. High pressure will move over the
Dateline extending N from a 1026 mb high in the N Pacific to a 
1019 mb high over the Chukotsk Peninsula. A low in the Sea of 
Ohkotsk will merge with the low in the NW Bering Sea Mon as it 
deepens to 968 mb and a weather front moves to the Central Bering 
Sea near the Dateline.

$$

PKZ200-181430-
Norton Sound-
234 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding.
Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-181430-
Dall Point to Wales-
234 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. Freezing
fog. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-181430-
Kotzebue Sound-
234 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-181430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
234 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
501 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Low in Bristol Bay will dive southeast into the
Northeast Pacific. Troughing north of the Alaska Range with high
pressure pushing in over the Copper River Basin will produce gusty
winds through the Alaska Range as the gradient tightens across
the area. Tanana Valley Jet will also kick in, but not as strong
as anticipated, still expect winds gusting to 30 mph around Delta
Junction today. A stronger Tanana Valley Jet is expected to
develop Tuesday. Low north of the Arctic Coast will continue to
bring onshore flow to areas west of Wainwright, with offshore flow
to the east. Some isolated snow showers on the capes along the
West Coast today with north to northeast winds to 25 mph.
Temperatures will be warming slowly the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 17/00Z solutions are in good agreement in the near
term, but are struggling with the gap winds and Tanana Valley Jet
winds. The NAM is an outlier with precipitation and timing with
the next system and a wave moving into the Interior Tuesday.
Solution winds are a bit stronger aloft with the south flow across
the Alaska Range so will increase the gap winds, and decrease the
Tanana Valley Jet winds as they battle it out for the same space
around Delta Junction. Surface solutions initialized well against
the 17/06Z local analysis. Will only be making some minor
adjustment to the current forecast database to address the
issues noted above.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Weak ridging has moved over Southcentral
Alaska and extends northwest over Galena, then west over the
Seward Peninsula and the Gulf of Anadyr. Low over the Bering Sea
has moved to 200 nm north of Cold Bay and will move southeast into
the Northeast Pacific today. Over the Arctic a low that was just
north of Utqiagvik has moved to 300 nm north of Utqiagvik at 514
dam, and another 514 dam low is 300 nm northwest of Point Lay,
with troughing extending west to a 511 dam low in the Siberian
Arctic. Troughing extends southeast from the low in the Arctic
over Point Lay to Fort Yukon to Dawson YT. Sunday afternoon the
low near Bristol Bay will be 100 nm south of Kodiak Island with
ridging over the state as the axis lies from Eagle to Fairbanks
to Galena then south of St Lawrence Island turning south over the
Dateline. Broad troughing will remain over the Arctic and Arctic
Coast with a 512 dam low 200 nm northwest of Wrangel Island. A
trough extending from the low will be over Point Lay to Buckland,
while another will lie over the Eastern Arctic Coast and Northern
Yukon Territory. Monday morning ridging across the state will be
over the Alaska Range and southwest mainland. Troughing will
remain across the Arctic and will push southeast into the Interior
as the low moves to 300 nm north of Wrangel Island at 508 dam
with a shortwave moving over the Northwest Interior. The low to
the south will move to 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island at 517
dam. A 503 dam low will move over the Northwest Bering Sea. At 850
hpa...-10C isotherm lies from Demarcation Point to Livengood to
Nome then south of St Lawrence Island and by Monday morning it
will lie from Old Crow YT to Galena to Gambell. The -10C isotherm
will continue to slide north as warmer air is pushed north through
the week.

Surface...Broad low pressure has pushed over most of the state as
970 mb low moves into Bristol Bay this morning. Leeside troughing
has developed north of the Alaska Range. Weak high pressure that
was over the Upper Yukon Valley yesterday is over the Brooks Range
this morning with a 1014 mb center near Umiat, and the low just
off the Arctic Coast yesterday has moved to 200 nm north of
Utqiagvik at 1006 mb. A strong pressure gradient is setting up
across the Alaska Range this morning as high pressure pushes west
over the Copper River Basin and Wrangel Mountains. Sunday
afternoon the low will dive southeast across Kodiak Island into
the Northeast Pacific 100 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 972 mb
with low pressure extending north across the Eastern Arctic Coast
to a 1010 mb low 100 nm north of Prudhoe Bay, then northwest to
1007 mb low 400 nm north of Utqiagvik. Leeside troughing north of
the Alaska Range will persist with the gradient across the range
starting to weaken as high pressure over the Copper River Basin
retreats to the southeast. High pressure will move over the
Dateline as it extends north from a 1026 mb high in the North
Pacific to a 1019 mb high over the Chukotsk Peninsula, and a 974
mb low will move into the Northwestern Bering Sea. Monday morning
low pressure will continue south of the Brooks Range, but weaken
as the low in the Northeast Pacific weakens to 978 mb. The low
near Prudhoe Bay will weaken and move east while the low north of
Utqiagvik will move northwest to the Dateline. High pressure that
was near the Dateline will move over 170W and extending north into
the Southwest Arctic. A 1017 mb high will move over the Western
Brooks Range with high pressure extending east over the Arctic
Plain. A low in the Sea of Ohkotsk will merge with the low in the
Northwest Bering Sea as it deepens to 968 mb and a weather front
associated with the low will move to the Central Bering Sea near
the Dateline. Weak high pressure will build in over the mainland
as the low to the south moves southeast, while the low in the
Bering Sea will move east with the weather front moving to St
Lawrence Island by Monday evening.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Onshore flow from Wainwright
west, and offshore flow to the east. Winds 5 to 15 mph. Generally
cloudy with flurries today. Patchy fog dense fog. High pressure
moving over the area Monday will bring some breaks. Along the
coast highs will be in the 20s, with lows in the teens. Inland and
in the Brooks Range highs in the lower teens and lows in the
single digits above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mainly high clouds with some
breaks as the day goes on and high pressure moves over most of the
area for Monday. A strong weather front will move to the West
Coast Tuesday with snow moving up the coast and into the inland
areas. A few snow showers on the capes today with north winds to
40 mph diminishing to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds around 25 mph
for the remainder of the coast with light and variable winds
inland. Highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s, with lows in the teens
to mid 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Pressure gradient is tightening
across the Alaska Range and winds will increase this morning
gusting to around 50 mph. Tanana Valley Jet not as strong as first
thought, but winds around Delta Junction will still be gusting to
around 30 mph. Some high clouds through the day south of the
Yukon, with some clearing to the north today. High pressure
building across the Interior this evening and overnight, so winds
diminishing later this afternoon. Lows 10 to 20 above with highs
in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low moving across
the Northern Bering Sea Monday will produce elevated surf on the
south side of St Lawrence Island Monday night, and the south
facing coastlines of the Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait
beginning early Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A low near St Lawrence Island
will weakens with broad low pressure over most of the mainland
and the Arctic nearshore waters. Low will bring snow to the west
coast into Wednesday with no significant accumulations. Interior
areas will under high pressure with light winds and breaks in the
clouds. Easterly flow in the Arctic will prevail along with low
clouds and some patchy fog. A warming trend across the area with
temperatures slightly above climatological normals.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

SDB OCT 21