Gale Warning 109, NWS Fairbanks, AK

225 
FZAK52 PAFG 181249
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
449 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-190200-
449 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1016 mb high is in the Western Brooks Range with high pressure 
extending W over the Chukchi Sea, and SW over the Bering Strait 
and the Pribilofs to a high in the Central Pacific. A 970 mb low 
has moved to the NW Bering Sea with a weather front extending E 
to the Dateline, then S to Tropical Depression Namtheun 600 nm S 
of Attu. The low will move to 150 nm NW of St Matthew Island 
Tuesday morning with the weather front lying from St Lawrence 
Island to Nunivak Island to Cold Bay then S to the Tropical 
Depression 400 nm S of Nikolski. The low will stall near St
Lawrence Island as it weakens.

$$

PKZ200-190200-
Norton Sound-
449 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Rain. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-190200-
Dall Point to Wales-
449 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft. Snow and
rain. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-190200-
Kotzebue Sound-
449 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-190200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
449 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

873 
FZAK52 PAFG 182303
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
303 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-191430-
303 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low over the Western Bering Sea will weaken and continue
to push east just to the south of St Lawrence Island tonight and 
Tuesday. The low will then drift north through the Bering Strait 
on Wednesday.

$$

PKZ200-191430-
Norton Sound-
303 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-191430-
Dall Point to Wales-
303 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, snow. Freezing spray.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-191430-
Kotzebue Sound-
303 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-191430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
303 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 8 ft. Freezing 
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather pattern over most of Northern Alaska with mostly
cloudy to partly cloudy skies found over much of the Interior and
partly cloudy skies found over much of the West Coast. The North
Slope Coastal areas continue to receive snow squalls which has
brought down visibility to one quarter mile at times this
afternoon in Utqiagvik and elsewhere along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and upper air observations. The 12z model suite also
verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Models spread
both between model families as well as between model run to model
run remains limited well Into the mid range and is reasonable in
the extended range.

Aloft at 500 mb...A broad upper level longwave trough remains over
Northern Alaska along with a sharp secondary upper level low that
is located over the northern pacific and Gulf of Alaska while a
ridge is located over the Central and Eastern Bering Sea. This
ridge will push east over the Eastern Bering Sea and West Coast as
well as the Western Interior into Tuesday. Another upper level low
will push east over the Western and Northern Bering Sea late
Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge builds over the Central and
Eastern Interior Wednesday. A ridge, trough, ridge pattern will
result. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal over mush of
Northern Alaska early in the week and then gradual warming as
southerly flow with the building ridge builds over Alaska.

On the surface...A 976 mb low currently located over Kodiak
Island will slowly strengthen then weaken as it remains in place
in the northern Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. A 976 mb low over
the Central Bering Sea will move northeast and weaken to around
986 mb low as it pushes through the Bering Strait on Wednesday.
A third low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm
Namtheun will push north and east into the Central Aleutian
Islands on Thursday and push generally into the Eastern Bering
Sea, however there remains much uncertainty on the track and
strength of this system.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Onshore flow from Wainwright
west, and offshore flow to the east. Winds 5 to 15 mph. Brief
heavy snow squalls continue to bring visibility down to one
quarter mile at times to the west of Utqiagvik. Generally cloudy
with flurries today. Patchy fog dense fog. High pressure moving
over the area Monday will bring some breaks. Along the coast highs
will be in the 20s, with lows in the teens. Inland and in the
Brooks Range highs in the lower teens and lows in the single
digits above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Partly cloudy skies as high
pressure moves over most of the area for Monday. A strong weather
front will move to the West Coast Tuesday with snow moving up the
coast and into the inland areas. Gusty northerly winds will
continue to diminish this evening with winds around 25 mph for
the coast with light and variable winds inland. Highs in the mid
20s to mid 30s, with lows in the teens to mid 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Pressure gradient across the Alaska
Range continues to diminish as do the winds in the foothills and
near the Alaska Range Passes. A Tanana Valley Jet will continue
into the this evening before waning this evening. High clouds will
remain tonight and tomorrow over much of the Interior. High
pressure is building slowly over the Interior this evening and
overnight, with winds over the Alsaka Range diminishing this
evening. Lows 10 to 20 above with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low moving
across the Northern Bering Sea Monday will produce elevated surf
on the south side of St Lawrence Island Monday night, and the
south facing coastlines of the Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait
beginning early Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A low moving out of the
Central Bering Sea will bring snow to the west coast Tuesday with
no significant accumulations. Interior areas will under high
pressure with light winds and breaks in the clouds. Easterly flow
in the Arctic will prevail along with low clouds and some patchy
fog. A warming trend across the area with temperatures slightly
above climatological normals.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC OCT 21