Small Craft Advisory 144, NWS Fairbanks, AK

121 
FZAK51 PAFG 041204
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-050200-
404 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Low pressure will strengthen over the Arctic Coast as a 1029 mb
high in the Northeast Arctic moves into the Northern Beaufort Sea
today. The high will continue to weaken Tue as low pressure pushes
N over the offshore waters. The high will move into the high
Arctic Wed as low pressure continues to spread N Wed.

$$

PKZ225-050200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
404 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-050200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
404 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-050200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
404 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-050200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
404 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-050200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
404 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

746 
FZAK51 PAFG 042312
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-051430-
312 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1029 mb high at 78N 130W will weaken through Tue. Pressure will
fall along the Arctic Coast as a strong surface low in the Bering
Sea moves to Norton Sound with a weather front reaching the 
Arctic Coast by Wed night.

$$

PKZ225-051430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
312 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-051430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
312 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-051430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
312 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-051430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
312 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-051430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
312 PM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

499 
FZAK51 PAFG 051152
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-060215-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Pressure will fall along the Arctic Coast today as a strong 
surface low in the Bering Sea moves to Norton Sound with a weather
front reaching the Arctic Coast by Wed night.

$$

PKZ225-060215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain with snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain with snow. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-060215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-060215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-060215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog.
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-060215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog.
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

151 
FZAK51 PAFG 060012
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
412 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-061415-
412 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A low pressure trough that lies from Wainwright to 30 NM north of
Barter Island will persist into Wed night. A 982 mb low 100 NM 100
NM west of Gambell and a 987 mb low in the southern Bering Sea
will merge over Norton Sound as a 980 mb low by 4pm Wed, and then
the low will move east over Alaska Wed night and Thu. 

$$

PKZ225-061415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
412 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-061415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
412 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-061415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
412 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-061415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
412 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-061415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
412 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog.
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

994 
FZAK51 PAFG 061202
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 AM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-070230-
402 AM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A low pressure trough that lies from Wainwright to 30 NM north of
Barter Island will persist into tonight. A 982 mb low 100 NM west
of Gambell and a 987 mb low in the southern Bering Sea will merge
over Norton Sound as a 980 mb low by this afternoon then move 
inland.

$$

PKZ225-070230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
402 AM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-070230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
402 AM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-070230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
402 AM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-070230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
402 AM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-070230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
402 AM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
620 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The snow dump in the Interior will taper off through
the morning with light snow and flurries lingering into Monday
morning before tapering off. The strong lows in the Gulf of
Alaska and the Yukon Territory are sliding off to the southeast
today as high pressure to the west moves over the state. Snow will
be tapering off to flurries in the Arctic as well. A remnants of
Typhoon Mindulle are moving east across the Northern Bering Sea
and a weather front associated with the low will move to the West
Coast tonight sending a mix of precipitation to the area Monday.
Strong winds and elevated surf will accompany the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 03/00Z solutions are in good agreement, but a bit
messy over the Arctic in the near term. Solutions seem to be
handling the remnants of Typhoon Mindulle better today.
Solutions initialized well against the 03/12Z upper air flights,
and at the surface the solutions were within a couple millibars
for the major features when compared to the 03/06Z local
analysis. No change from our blend yesterday as it worked well,
and will provide good continuity with the previous forecast.
Kicking up the probabilities up again today using the SREF to
ensure categorical snow in the Central and Eastern Interior this
morning.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing is sliding to the southeast today
as ridging builds over the West Coast to the Southern Beaufort
Sea. Ridging remains over the Eastern Bering Sea extending north
to a 541 dam high over Wrangel Island. A 536 dam low has developed
over Kotzebue this morning and weak troughing extends northeast
from the low over the Eastern Arctic. A 520 dam low, associated
with Typhoon Mindulle, has moved over the Western Bering Sea.
Monday morning ridging will be over most of the state with a 545
dam center over the Upper Yukon Flats. A 536 dam low will be over
the Western Brooks Range, and the low over the Western Bering Sea
will have a 517 dam center. Tuesday morning the ridging over the
state will be flattening out as the low over the Brooks Range
moves over the Central Arctic Coast, and the low in the Bering Sea
moves to the Dateline near the Gulf of Anadyr with a 518 dam
center. At 850 hpa...Temperatures from 0C to -11C with the
warmest temperatures over the Southeast Interior and the coldest
over the West Coast. Temperatures will warm in the western half of
the state, and cool in the eastern half the next couple days.

Surface...Low pressure continues to dominate with a 992 mb low
near Prince William Sound, and a 990 mb low in the Southern Yukon
Territory. High pressure is starting to push over the West Coast
and across the Arctic as a 1028 mb high has moved to 400 nm north
of Utqiagvik this morning. High pressure extends south through the
Bering Strait to a 1034 mb high south of Nikolski. A 967 mb low,
the remnants of Typhoon Mindulle, has moved into the Western
Bering Sea. By Monday morning The low pressure over the state will
be barely hanging on over the Southeast Interior. High pressure
will extend from a 1030 mb high 500 nm north of Demarcation Point
over the state to a 1031 mb high 500 nm south of Sand Point. The
remnants of Typhoon Mindulle will be in the Northwest Bering Sea
with a 963 mb center, and the associated weather front will be
approaching the West Coast south of the Bering Strait. Tuesday
morning the high pressure will be over the eastern half of the
state as the low in the Bering Sea moves to the Dateline near the
Gulf of Anadyr at 975 mb. The associated front will be pushing
into the Western Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some lingering flurries or light
snow with cloudy conditions, but no significant accumulations.
Winds will be swinging around from the east at 5 to 15 mph. Winter
Storm Warnings for the Eastern areas continue as does the snow
this morning. Highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Increasing clouds later today
with the front moving to the coast Monday morning with a mix of
precipitation. Expect rain and snow along the coast south of the
Bering Strait and in the Nulato Hills with snow north of the
Bering Strait and in the Western Interior by Tuesday morning.
Significant snowfall is possible Tuesday and Wednesday, but
details are still a bit sketchy so we will be evaluating that as
new guidance comes in. Strong gusty south and southwest winds to
45 mph will move to the coast with the front along with elevated
surf on the south and southwest facing coastlines. Highs in the
30s and lows in the 20s today with warming temperatures through
midweek that will push highs into the 40s in some areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect through the morning, but the
snow will be tapering off to flurries or light snow with
accumulations generally less than 2 inches today. Some clearing as
high pressure moves in tonight. Winds variable to 10 mph.
Temperatures fairly steady with highs in the mid 30s and lows in
the 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon
Mindulle will be moving across the Northern Bering Sea with
increasing winds and potential for elevated surf on south and
southwest facing shorelines from the Bering Strait south Monday
into Wednesday. Southwest to west flow is expected through the end
of the week.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The remnants of Typhoon
Mindulle will bring the potential for another round of heavy snow
to the Interior later this week as westerly flow sets up across
the state. A mix of precipitation is expected in the Western areas
with potential for heavy snow in the Brooks Range midweek. Another
strong low will move to the southwest mainland Friday morning.

&&

.Hydrology...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

SDB OCT 21