Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1205 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold upper level trough will continue to dominate Northern Alaska
with partly to mostly cloudy skies flurries, and normal to below
normal temperatures through the end of the week. Gusty winds over
the Interior Highway Summits which continue to produce lower
visibilities in blowing snow and low wind chills will diminish
late tonight and Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Quiet conditions continue across Northern Alaska this afternoon
with a weak 512 dam low, at 500 mb, centered over the Central
Interior. This low continues to drift west and then southwest to
the lower Yukon Valley by Wednesday afternoon and into the Gulf of
Alaska over the weekend. A weak shortwave will rotate north along
the eastern peripheral of this low, increasing the chances of
light snow across the Eastern Interior from the Fortymile Country
north to the Brooks Range and then to the Beaufort Sea Coast by
Thursday morning. Elsewhere, a 540 dam high over the Beaufort,
with ridging extending southwest across the Chukchi Sea into the
Northern Bering will weaken today as it drifts slowly north.

Model Discussion...
The 9/12z model suite initialized well against both the 12z
surface analysis and 12z upper air observations and also verified
well against the 18z surface analysis. The models are in general
good agreement on the evolution of features on the synoptic scale
over the next several days. The main challenge in the forecast
remains cloud cover and associated low temperatures. We made
limited changes to the inherited forecast for this afternoon's
forecast package.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a mix of mostly clear
skies and mostly cloudy areas mostly along the Arctic Coast.
Clouds continue to move in from the east and will push over most
of the North Slope by this evening. Expect the clouds and flurries
to remain over the region into Thursday. Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday, a shortwave moving north around an upper level low will
bring chances of snow to the Eastern Brooks Range as well as
areas east of Utqiagvik along the Beaufort Coast. Light snow and
gusty westerly winds will increase late Wednesday and into
Thursday and will combine to produce low visibilities along the
Eastern Arctic Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Offshore northeast winds along with colder air will keep continue
conditions dry for most locations through Thursday. Expect lows
to drop into the subzero range, with the coldest temperatures in
interior valleys over the next few nights.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Areas of clouds and a few areas of scattered clouds  over the
Eastern Interior will continue to push west over the Central
Interior this afternoon and into the Western Interior this
evening. Expect highs this afternoon in the single digits above
zero with much the same for Wednesday into Thursday. Lows, will be
highly cloud dependent, areas that remain clear, expect
temperatures to dip into the double digit below zero tonight and
in the single digits above and below zero for locations that
remain mostly cloudy. On Wednesday, as the upper low shifts
westward, southerly flow will develop over the Interior increasing
temperatures slightly for Thursday. In addition, a shortwave will
move north around the low, over the Eastern Interior, bringing
increased cloud cover as well as a chance for light snow, across
the Fortymile Country and Yukon Flats, primarily east and north of
Fairbanks. This south flow will also bring a return of gap winds
through Alaska Range Passes Wednesday into Thursday. Elsewhere,
breezy northeasterly winds, over the higher terrain of the Central
and Eastern Interior north of Fairbanks, will persist through late
tonight and then diminish Wednesday morning. These gusty winds
may create areas of blowing snow that could impact travel along
highway summits north of Fairbanks.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
&&

CCC NOV 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1144 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

AKZ219>221-101500-
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Central Interior-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, and Livengood
1144 AM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

...WINDY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER
HIGHWAY SUMMITS...

Northeast winds gusting to 30 mph are causing areas of blowing
and drifting snow along with decreased visibility over the
Steese, Elliot, and Dalton Highway Summits. The worst conditions
are above 2000 feet at locations such as at Eagle Summit,
Twelvemile Summit, Ptarmagin Pass, and Finger Mountain.

Strong winds along with areas of blowing and drifting snow are
expected to continue over the Dalton Highway Summits near Finger
Mountain through late tonight, and then decrease Wednesday morning.
The stronger winds, blowing and drifting snow, are expected to
decrease this evening over the Steese and Elliot Highway Summits.