Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather expected for most locations across the Interior into
Friday. Below normal temperatures continue over inland areas will
lows dipping into the single digits to lower teens across the
portions of the Interior with mostly clear skies and into the
teens and 20s where stratus persists. A weak storm continues to
slide east to west across the Arctic Coast through Thursday.
Elsewhere, busy weather expected over the Bering Sea as a powerful
low now rapidly deepening over the Northern Bering will continue
to strengthen as it pushes south tonight. This low continues to
bring precipitation chances primarily to St. Lawrence Island
southeast to the lower YK Delta, with the biggest impact being
winds, expect Gale Force winds over St. Lawrence Island and the
Bering Sea tonight and into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Relatively benign conditions will exist over much of Northern
Alaska, except for the Beaufort Coast where a weak shortwave
continues to bring light snow throughout the day. A weak shortwave
over the Western Interior continues to weaken as it pushes east
into the Central Interior. A 502 dam low at 500 hpa currently over
the Northern Bering Sea will quickly dive south and weaken as it
moves to the Alaska Peninsula Thursday afternoon and then into the
Northern Gulf of Alaska by Friday.

Model Discussion...
The 29/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis and
a29/12z models suite and is in good agreement with the large
scale pattern and storm evolution across Northern Alaska through
Thursday. There remains significant differences on Friday, with
the strength and position of the low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska and the shortwaves rotating northwest around the low which
produce a large range in snowfall location and amounts in the
Eastern and Central Interior over the weekend. Opted to use a high
blend of ensemble guidance on position and strength of synoptic
scale features which also provided a high degree of continuity
with inherited forecast package.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A 993 mb low currently 150 miles east of the McKenzie Delta will
continue to move north to be over Banks Island Thursday morning
and in the high arctic Thursday night. This low as it passes to
the north will bring light snow to eastern portions of the North
Slope this afternoon and evening and then over Northwestern
Alaska by Thursday, expect widespread 1-2" of snow with this
system. This new snow coupled with stronger winds along the
Beaufort Coast from Pt. Thomson east, will produce reduced
visibilities in blowing snow into Thursday. Another round of snow
Friday, as a large storm in the Gulf of Alaska feeds moisture
north across the North Slope, bringing an additional 1-2" of snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weak front that moved onshore over the West Coast this morning
is quickly falling apart this afternoon as it moves inland into
the Western Interior. Attention is now focused on a low in the
Northern Bering Sea that is quickly strengthening. This low will
quickly drop south tonight, tracking just west of St. Matthew
Island. Very minimal precipitation affecting the region, the main
focus will be the strong winds that will develop, with increasing
easterly offshore winds of 15-30 mph over the Norton Sound and YK
Delta, with gusts to 45-55 mph over St. Lawrence Island today and
Thursday. As this system moves south Thursday, winds will become
northerly which will bring snow squalls and blowing snow to the
capes from Pt. Hope to Wales where visibility may drop down to one
half mile or less at times. Otherwise, mainly dry inland with
increasing northeast to north winds on Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Stratus formed rapidly this morning over the southern Interior
with a flurries being reports at several locations. The clouds
will limit high temperatures this afternoon in the upper 20s to
lower 30s but will produce warmer low temperatures in the Teens
and 20s where clouds persist and into the single digits and teens
where clouds diminish. Otherwise, relatively benign conditions
into Thursday with increasing northeast winds as a strong low
moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This low will bring chances of
widespread light snow Friday as moisture is fed north into the
Central and Eastern Interior, expect around an inch of
accumulation.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
Elevated water levels of around 1 foot above the normal high tide
line are expected through Friday along the northern shores of St
Lawrence Island as strong northerly winds develop behind the
strong low departing to the south.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Saturday, a deep trough will be
in place across Northern Alaska, extending south to a large low in
the Gulf of Alaska. Shortwaves will rotate around this main low,
making it favorable for chances of snow over the Eastern Interior
north to the North Slope through the weekend. For the latter part
of the extended, the storm track will sift back to the Bering Sea,
next week with the potential for several powerful storms pushing
into the Bering Sea including the Remnants of Super Typhoon
Mindulle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ505.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC SEP 21

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