Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1227 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low near the Alaska Peninsula moving southeast into the
Gulf of Alaska combined with building high pressure over Siberia
will maintain gusty north winds south of the Bering Strait and
allow for increasing northerly winds north of the Bering Strait
this evening and tonight. This will result in elevated surf
developing on the north side of St Lawrence Island this evening
into Saturday. A shortwave moving north across the eastern
Interior and Eastern Brooks Range today will bring areas of snow
to those locations, while a low that develops along this shortwave
over the northern Yukon Territory tonight, lifts northwest across
the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast Saturday and into the adjacent
waters, spreading snow chances westward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a long wave trough extends southeast out of the
high Arctic across Siberia, the Bering Sea, and into the Gulf of
Alaska. A strong low located near the Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon will continue moving southeast into the Gulf of Alaska.
Tonight, a low will develop along a shortwave moving north across
northern Alaska over the northern Yukon Territory and lift
northwest across the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast and the adjacent
waters. On Saturday and Sunday a shortwave stretching from Siberia
to the Gulf of Anadyr to the Pribilofs, will lift northeast across
the Bering Sea and along the West Coast, developing into a closed
low near the Bering Strait Sunday night. Another shortwave will
lift north across the Alaska Range Sunday into Monday.

Models...
The 22/12Z model solutions initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS
and surface obs. Models are in fair agreement with the overall
pattern and large scale features and solutions are in better
agreement in the near term than they were yesterday. Differences
begin to emerge Saturday with low lifting northwest away from
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast, especially with the strength of the
feature, but the spread in location increases by Sunday. Sunday
into Monday, there is a large amount of spread in timing,
placement, and strength of a shortwave moving north across the
Alaska Range. To account for the spread, we have opted to use a
general model blend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cloudy skies and areas of fog will persist, though a few breaks
in the cloud cover are possible this afternoon. A tight pressure
gradient through the Bering Strait will maintain north to
northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph through Saturday for areas from
Utqiagvik east before diminishing Sunday as the pressure gradient
weakens. East of Utqiagvik winds will take on a more westerly
component. A low moving northwest out of the Yukon Territory
tonight will increase winds, especially east of Deadhorse into
the 15 to 30 mph range tonight and into the 25 to 35 mph range
Saturday. Snow chances increase as the low approaches. Snow
accumulations through the weekend will range from one to two
inches from Umiat east to the AlCan border, with totals generally
less than half an inch west of Utqiagvik. Expect areas of blowing
snow east of Deadhorse as the winds pick up, but at this time am
not anticipating visibility to drop below a mile in blowing snow.
Winds will diminish Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves
northwest. High temperatures in the 20s, with the warmest temps
along the coast. Low temperatures in the lower 20s to the teens,
with the coldest temps inland.

West Coast and Western Interior...
As the low near the Alaska Peninsula continues southeast into the
Gulf of Alaska and high pressure builds in Siberia, the pressure
gradient over the Bering and Chukchi Seas will remain tight,
resulting in gusty north to northeast winds of 20 to 35 mph, with
the strongest winds occurring through the Bering Strait. Winds
diminish Sunday as the pressure gradient weakens. Isolated to
scattered snow showers will accompany the northerly flow,
especially on the capes and St Lawrence Island. Precip chances
increase and spread eastward Sunday as the next area of low
pressure approaches the West Coast. High temperatures in the upper
20s to upper 30s, while lows will be in the teens to lower 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A weak shortwave continues to lift north across the Eastern Interior
and Southeastern Brooks Range this afternoon and evening bringing
increased snow chances. Best snow chances expected along and
north of a line from Livengood to Central. A low moving northwest
out of the Yukon Territory will maintain snow chances for the
Southeastern Brooks Range through Saturday morning. Snowfall
accumulations through Saturday will generally range from half an
inch in the Yukon Flats to two inches in the Southeastern Brooks
Range. Snow chances return on Sunday as a shortwave lifts north of
the Alaska Range. Southerly gap winds develop once again in the
Alaska Range passes late tonight and continue through Saturday
morning before diminishing. Expecting winds to stay below wind
advisory criteria, with gusts to 45 mph expected. High
temperatures largely in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the
teens to mid 20s.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...Low pressure over the Bering, West
Coast, and Gulf of Alaska. Cloudy with fog and periods of snow
along the Arctic Coast, snow showers along the West Coast with
north winds, and several chances for snow across the Interior.
Temperatures generally cooling.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ245.
&&

EB OCT 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1234 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

AKZ211-213-231400-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, and Diomede
1234 PM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...Elevated Surf Expected Along North Coast of St Lawrence Island
Through Saturday...

Elevated surf with wave runup of up to 2 feet above the normal
high tide line is expected along the north shore of St Lawrence
Island this afternoon continuing into Saturday.

A strong low pressure system will be moving across the Alaska
Peninsula today and into the Gulf of Alaska Saturday. Northeast
winds 25 to 35 mph will continue over the Northeast Bering Sea
and Chukchi Sea through Saturday afternoon before beginning to
diminish Saturday evening. Residents should move boats and other
property well above the normal high tide line in advance of the
storm.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.