Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad low pressure over Northern Alaska will remain in place
through the weekend and into early next week as a series of weak
storms produce flurries or sprinkles in the Interior and low
visibilities in blowing snow this evening and into Thursday on
the eastern Arctic Coast. Northerly winds will continue over the
Eastern Bering Sea and West Coast. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal normals into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and upper air observations and verified well
against the 06z surface analysis. Model spread is minimal in the
short range products but begins to increase spread in both
position and strength of synoptic scale features by Sunday and
continue to increase into early portions of next week, especially
on the strength and to a lesser degree the position and track of
a low pressure system forecasted to develop and push into the
Western Bering Sea on Monday and to a greater extent a very strong
low forecasted to push into the same areas on Wednesday and
Thursday of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A low pressure trough over the North Slope combined with high
pressure near 80N and the dateline continues to cause east winds
25-30 kt along with stratus, flurries, and fog into Thursday
morning. Low visibility in blowing snow is expected to develop
along the eastern Arctic Coast as snow increases this evening and
continues into Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to
improve on Thursday morning as snow and winds decrease.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Mostly cloudy skies, occasional sprinkles or flurries, light winds
and near normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and
into early next week.

West Coast and Brooks Range...
The West Coast of Alaska will continue to see north winds 15-25kt
through Friday with snow showers along the North facing shores,
especially along Western Capes. A deep low moves out of the
Western Bering Sea into the Central Bering Sea on Saturday and
into the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska by Sunday which will bring a
shift to southerly and southeasterly winds as well as increasing
chances of precipitation to the West Coast and Western Interior to
the south of Unalakleet. At this time winds are expected to be
offshore direction minimizing the threat for coastal flooding and
erosion.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A deep low moves out of the Western Bering Sea into the Central
Bering Sea on Saturday and into the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska by
Sunday which will bring a shift to southerly and southeasterly
winds as well as increasing chances of precipitation to the West
Coast and Western Interior to the south of Unalakleet. At this
time winds are expected to be offshore direction minimizing the
threat for coastal flooding and erosion.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-
PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC OCT 21